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SPINE New user Chicago 87 Posts |
Do these calculations take into account how many other players there are?
Because you would not have the cards dealt to the other players on the table in order to make your full house or whatever. ???
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
They are the odds of getting a full house not the odds of you winning with a full house, someone could have better full house. In poker the ranks are determined by how mathamatically hard it is to get the hand. But mathamatically it is just as hard to get a house of Aces over Kings as it is to get Twos over Threes or whatever. It does not matter how many players there are the odds of you getting a full house are the same but obviously there is more chance of a house comming out at a full table than at an heads up one.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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SPINE New user Chicago 87 Posts |
I'm not talking about the odds of winning with a hand. I'm talking about the odds of being dealt any given of cards.
"There are C(52,7) total ways of getting 7 cards out of a standard deck. That's 133,784,560 possible 7 card hands." - quote from Drexel University This quote from Drexel assumes you are just dealing ONE hand to yourself form a deck of 52 cards. In a game, depending on your position of the deal, your odds are different if you are the first player or the last player dealt to. These calculations apply if you are the first player. But if you are the 5th player 4 card would of already been dealt leaving 48 cards on the first round. On the last round 21 cards would of already been dealt to the other players and 5 to yourself. SO you have to take this into account. In order to get a better estimate of the odds you'd have to take into account the change in total cards as you are dealt to relative to your position at the card table. Point is - the odds are huge.
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Andrei Veteran user Romania 353 Posts |
SPINE, the fifth card is exactly as random as the first. It doesn't matter what position you're in, the odds don't change.
Think about it. Andrei |
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SPINE New user Chicago 87 Posts |
Yes but after that on the following rounds?
The cards dealt to the players are no longer available to you. That's all I'm saying, you are right about the first round. At any rate the odds increase. Math, ugh...
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splice Inner circle Canada 1246 Posts |
Quote:
On 2006-07-21 14:38, SPINE wrote: I don't believe so. The cards dealt to other players aren't available to you, sure, but they're just as likely to be one card as they are to be another. If you have no knowledge of them, you can't easily account for them. I think it works itself out either way, but I might be wrong. |
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SPINE New user Chicago 87 Posts |
That's why the odds go way up.
You don't know the cards dealt to the other players but the probability goes way up because these are no longer available to be dealt to you.
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splice Inner circle Canada 1246 Posts |
Quote:
On 2006-07-21 15:07, SPINE wrote: The probability does not, in fact, go way up, as it's just as likely that they are holding one card you are looking for as they are to hold a card that you aren't. If you knew he held a card you're looking for, then the probability would indeed be much lower that you will get what you want. But if you don't know what he holds, the situation is changed. He either holds the card, and your odds go down accordingly, or he doesn't, and they go up accordingly, but on the whole the odds work themselves out to pretty much the same as if he wasn't dealt in. Go ask Sklansky, I'm sure he could explain it better. Or correct me and make me understand why I'm wrong, which is just as good. |
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silverking Inner circle 4574 Posts |
Note that when odds are shown on any of the many TV Hold'Em games they're always the same, with no consideration for the number of cards left in the deck, or the number of players left in the hand.
That's because they don't change whether there's one card left in the deck to deal, or a full deck to deal. There's no point debating it, Sklansky speaks to the facts in almost every one of his books on poker. If you're inclined to debate Sklansky, you'll probably need a different web site than the Café! Now if you're talking about the difference between Hold'Em and Stud whereby in Stud you can see another persons up card, that's an entirely different thing. |
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Andrei Veteran user Romania 353 Posts |
SPINE, the odds do not go up, because the cards that are dealt to the "other" players (and so become 'unavailable' as you put it) could very well have been on the bottom portion of the deck to begin with, so they were unavailable all along. Or, the other players might be dealt cards that would help your hand, or cards that wouldn't help your hand, but either way, you have no idea about that because everything is random.
The odds are the same. Think about it for a while, then think about it some more, and post after that. Andrei |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
Well Spine think of it like this: Think of a card. Now it is 1 in 52 it being on the top or bottom or anywhere in between, right? Now if you deal off 51 cards face down it's still 1 in 52 it being the bottom card. The odds don't change just because you dealt 51 off.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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silverking Inner circle 4574 Posts |
Spine, I wonder if you're thinking about the odds of winning your hand compared to the odds of other folks at the table winning theirs.
This is obviously different than the odds of being dealt specific cards throughout the hand. The dynamic odds of actually winning a hand will definitely change as the turn and river are dealt out and as you either do or don't make your hand compared to the other players still playing in the game. (this also highlighted on the TV poker games as the odds change as the hand in question gets played out) Fun Example of this concept: http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem |
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Munseys_Magic Special user 520 Posts |
Spine,
If you're only getting "x" number of cards, it doesn't matter WHERE the rest are. Whether they're in the deck (if you only deal one hand to youself) or dealt to somebody else (playing an actual game), they're not the cards dealt to you. In either situation, you're only getting "x" cards. Jim |
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