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The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » Not very magical, still... » » New Report on Global Warming » » TOPIC IS LOCKED (153 Likes) Printer Friendly Version

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R.S.
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Quote:
On Jan 26, 2018, RNK wrote:
Quote:
On Jan 25, 2018, RNK wrote:
There is no consensus that GW exists.

"So where did that famous “consensus” claim that “98% of all scientists believe in global warming” come from? It originated from an endlessly reported 2009 American Geophysical Union (AGU) survey consisting of an intentionally brief two-minute, two question online survey sent to 10,257 earth scientists by two researchers at the University of Illinois. Of the about 3.000 who responded, 82% answered “yes” to the second question, which like the first, most people I know would also have agreed with.

Then of those, only a small subset, just 77 who had been successful in getting more than half of their papers recently accepted by peer-reviewed climate science journals, were considered in their survey statistic. That “98% all scientists” referred to a laughably puny number of 75 of those 77 who answered “yes”."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2......43d53bb3


Another article stating the same thing as the last one I posted:

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/42......n-tuttle


Not 97% Consensus!


My last post showed how your last post was misleading. Your prior article referred to no consensus on the long term effects of cc - not on whether there was consensus on cc! Furthermore, I posted a link which debunks the "no consensus" myth. Did you even read it?? Simply reposting the same nonsense won't make it true.

And you still haven't answered, "Do you consider NASA and NOAA to be credible sources of scientific information"?

Do you think CO2 emissions in the atmosphere have ANY effect on climate?

Ron
"It is error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry." Thomas Paine
Dannydoyle
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Ever do a post without talking points?

Again I ask what is your endgame? It always seems to be liberal. We all know that playbook.
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
R.S.
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On Jan 26, 2018, magicfish wrote:
Al Gore would have lost global warming bet, academic says
http://www.foxnews.com/science/2018/01/2......ays.html


The chart referenced in the link is suspect. The scale on the Y axis is different above the zero line from below it. The intervals should be consistent through the entire Y axis, but they're not. That has the visual effect of a less drastic temperature change. Anyway, the chart shows that between 2008 and 2017 the temperature did indeed rise by about .38 degrees, so Armstrong has to (and does) present some pretty specious arguments in order to claim victory in his bet that there would be "no increase at all".


And then there's this:

Minor myths: the Armstrong-Gore climate "bet"
http://theidiottracker.blogspot.com/2010......bet.html

Quote:
In 2007, Scott Armstrong proposed a ten-year wager to Al Gore -- no warming (Armstrong's prediction) vs. warming (Gore's prediction). Gore declined, saying he doesn't gamble. And there was no wager, so that was the end of it. Kidding! What happened was that it became a minor myth picked up by the likes of Intrade and followed on http://www.theclimatebet.com/. Denialists like to claim that Gore is "losing the bet," a claim that interested me because of the number of lies packed into a simple declarative sentence. I will delve into this at greater length later, but here is a thumbnail sketch of the fallacies involved that sentence:

1. There was no bet, as Gore declined the offer.
2. Gore hasn't given an estimate for future warming, so the denialists chose 0.03C per year, which they claim is the "linear trend" predicted by the third IPCC report.
3. The trend predicted by the IPCC is not linear.
4. The trend is not 0.03C per year. The third IPCC report predicted a warming trend of 0.15C-0.30C/decade over the next several decades. Not only does the "bet" ignore the time frame (see #6), but rather than chose the middle of the range, the deniers have chosen to pretend the higher end of the estimate, the maximum possible, is the "projection" of the IPCC report.
5. The "bet" was proposed in 2007, when the fourth IPCC report came out -- but the denialists went to the out-of-date report for their estimates of warming. (The fourth report does not change things much -- it estimates warming of about 0.2C in coming decades.
6. It's a ten-year bet, yet denialists are tracking meaningless figures like who "won" the year or even who "won" the month (of course, short-term variations caused by solar activity, ENSO, and the like make it impossible to translate a prediction of 0.2C/decade averaged over several decades to a prediction for one decade, let alone a single month or year. Scott Armstrong himself has warned the denialists that this makes no sense, but they persist.
7. Even with these cherry-picked conditions, Gore has "won" six of the last seven months. Intrade gives him a 75% chance to "win" the year. Coincidentally, http://www.theclimatebet.com/ stopped posting updates on the status of the "bet" . . . exactly six months ago.


Ron
"It is error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry." Thomas Paine
R.S.
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On Jan 26, 2018, Dannydoyle wrote:
Ever do a post without talking points?

Again I ask what is your endgame? It always seems to be liberal. We all know that playbook.


Danny, if you disagree with something I've said, or if something is inaccurate, just say what it is. And by the way, why is everything I say "talking points" and "agenda driven", but you never make that accusation about the other side? Why is that? And could it be YOU are working off a playbook?


Ron
"It is error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry." Thomas Paine
Dannydoyle
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Ok what is your solution? Pretend it is real. What is your solution?
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Jonathan Townsend
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On Jan 23, 2018, NYCTwister wrote:
Like I said it's simplistic [snip] In principle though, what do you think?


There are other forces unaccounted for in that equation. (Total cost / product life cycle accounting) Among others is habit or inertia, sometimes referred to as grand parenting or tradition. Whose tradition or grandparents?

Recalling a post from a decade ago...

Or what, you're gonna buy Coke instead of Pepsi...that'll show em.

Yes, yes, sigh, Smile folks want both blockchain benefits and jubilee.
...to all the coins I've dropped here
R.S.
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On Jan 26, 2018, Dannydoyle wrote:
Ok what is your solution? Pretend it is real. What is your solution?


As I said before, it's kind of pointless to talk about solutions when we can't even get agreement that AGW is real. Some folks here still deny the scientific consensus on AGW.

At any rate, I don't have a solution. Do you? Do you even accept the scientific consensus that AGW is happening?

Ron
"It is error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry." Thomas Paine
Jonathan Townsend
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On Sep 27, 2013, Jonathan Townsend wrote:
The social question has never been about climate change or the importance of energy efficiency to our future, but rather the extent to which a change in our activities can undo unhealthy climate instabilities and what the developing world will use instead of the carbon burning methods used in the prior two centuries. More to the point, if they want to burn oil and coal, what are we willing to do to them to prevent them from putting more carbon into the atmosphere?



Maybe a graph of alarmist and personal comments over time would be informative. Climate change - as it happens - socially speaking. What do you think?
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Dannydoyle
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Quote:
On Jan 27, 2018, R.S. wrote:
Quote:
On Jan 26, 2018, Dannydoyle wrote:
Ok what is your solution? Pretend it is real. What is your solution?


As I said before, it's kind of pointless to talk about solutions when we can't even get agreement that AGW is real. Some folks here still deny the scientific consensus on AGW.

At any rate, I don't have a solution. Do you? Do you even accept the scientific consensus that AGW is happening?

Ron


Nice evasion. Keep dodging. I'll ask again what is your solution?
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Jonathan Townsend
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On Jan 27, 2018, R.S. wrote:
... Do you even accept the ...



revealed word as handed down by the most scientific in the expensive peer reviewed journals ...

or are you a denialist who needs to be shamed. And then claim a right to be forgotten?

Dogmatism - suitable for dogs - not so helpful in rational dialog or decision making.
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NYCTwister
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Jonathan,

Given what you've seen, what path to rational dialogue do you think should be taken?
If you need fear to enforce your beliefs, then your beliefs are worthless.
R.S.
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On Jan 27, 2018, Dannydoyle wrote:
Quote:
On Jan 27, 2018, R.S. wrote:
Quote:
On Jan 26, 2018, Dannydoyle wrote:
Ok what is your solution? Pretend it is real. What is your solution?


As I said before, it's kind of pointless to talk about solutions when we can't even get agreement that AGW is real. Some folks here still deny the scientific consensus on AGW.

At any rate, I don't have a solution. Do you? Do you even accept the scientific consensus that AGW is happening?

Ron


Nice evasion. Keep dodging. I'll ask again what is your solution?


What "evasion"? I told you I don't have a solution. Do you? Do you have a solution to end world poverty? If you tell me you don't have a solution to end world poverty would I then be justified in calling that evasion???

Anyway, do you accept the scientific consensus that AGW is happening?

Ron
"It is error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry." Thomas Paine
Dannydoyle
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If you don't have a solution why all the nonsense?
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Dr SH
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To say the truth , I am so surprise to find a thread of 190 pages where many people still debate if global warming is a reality or not. It is a nice piece of history, I can only imagine people in 50-100 years reading this thread with the same smile than when we read people debating if the world was flat or not hundred of years ago....
Jonathan Townsend
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On Jan 27, 2018, NYCTwister wrote:
Given what you've seen, what path to rational dialogue do you think should be taken?


"toward" means we're not there - seems like defeatist language.

Here are a few notions which have helped so far in rational dialogue here on this topic:

To start - let's ignore personal and meta-commentary and put a focus on arguments, evidence and claimed warrants. Is a rational argument presented? If not what's missing?

Next up - the stakes for us locally. Let's remember our context in the matter discussed. We are (USA) about 300 million people in a world with billions of people. Thought experiment: Let's just imagine we flipped a magic switch and suddenly all our cars and boilers, trains and trucks would run without either gas or emissions. That is, imagine we (all of us) simply stopped emitting carbon into the atmosphere. Okay what then? Really - what do we guess would be our local and larger climate in ten years, fifty, a hundred years? Are we supposedly discussing a large scale project to "sequester" carbon? Let's look at what's being proposed.

Let's acknowledge some problems in arguments as offered so far. We live with many unspoken social issues involving long established practices which we seem to condone if not tolerate. In our social ecology they may be toxic... but such matters are out-of-bounds, taboo for discussion. Okay - let's not explore why we say we dislike nazis yet continue to offer money to storytellers and actors to depict such. We don't need to address the taboos. We can take a position about what to do with arguments presented with taboo content. Does evidence of taboos invalidate any conclusions presented? Does it contaminate the entire argument or just warrant a critical reexamination of the data presented?

Last notion for this post - practical context. We live in a society with a multilayered market. Our market includes product, stock in company that makes product, options to buy/sell stock, bundled collections of such, and derivatives of those. We trade our time and efforts in exchange for those market items - our "good" for those goods. What is the good offered in an argument presented? What moral or ethical leverage is applied to what action, predisposition or imagined future?

That's enough Smile ... time for dinner Smile
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Jonathan Townsend
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Quote:
On Jan 27, 2018, R.S. wrote:
... it's kind of pointless to talk about solutions when we can't even get agreement that AGW is real...


True. We can discuss related environment issues such as potable water supply and sustainable crops - or infrastructure stability.
...to all the coins I've dropped here
Dannydoyle
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On Jan 27, 2018, Dr SH wrote:
To say the truth , I am so surprise to find a thread of 190 pages where many people still debate if global warming is a reality or not. It is a nice piece of history, I can only imagine people in 50-100 years reading this thread with the same smile than when we read people debating if the world was flat or not hundred of years ago....


Fanatic now you get to feel superior and the earth is still no better for it.

Now the other side says the same thing about you because in 30 years we still exist past doomsday. So they feel superior and the earth is still under attack every hour of every day.

And still no solutions. Go figure.
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Jonathan Townsend
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Quote:
On Jan 27, 2018, Dr SH wrote:
...It is a nice piece of history, I can only imagine people in 50-100 years reading this thread with the same smile than when we read people debating if the world was flat or not hundred of years ago....


Argument about whether the Earth is flat or hollow continues.
https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/th......ttle-sun
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R.S.
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On Jan 27, 2018, Dannydoyle wrote:
If you don't have a solution why all the nonsense?


Why is it on me to have a solution? Why don't you have a solution for world poverty? Is it always necessary to have solutions in order to even discuss important issues?

Anyway, you tell me why all the nonsense. Why don't some people accept the scientific consensus that AGW is real? (by the way, do you?)

Ron
"It is error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry." Thomas Paine
landmark
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Is it always necessary to have solutions in order to even discuss important issues?

Solutions to huge problems are not like bubbling in an answer sheet. It's more like flying a plane. What is important is to head in the right direction and be willing to make course corrections as you go along. As you meet obstacles, or refine your flight instruments, you have to be willing to re-calculate your position. What is not so good is making the choice to continue heading in the wrong direction.
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