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rockwall
Special user
762 Posts
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Posted: Aug 21, 2015 01:48 am
0
I'm only talking about 2 people Danny. The two who wrote the article on Bloomberg.
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Jonathan Townsend
Eternal Order
Ossining, NY
27297 Posts
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Posted: Aug 21, 2015 02:15 am
0
For a good time read the plot summary of Neal Stepahenson's book SeveneveS.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seveneves
what if we only had two years to do something?
What can we do better in the mean time?
...to all the coins I've dropped here
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rockwall
Special user
762 Posts
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Posted: Aug 21, 2015 02:59 am
0
Only 2 years!?!? It'll take 10 years to complete the environmental impact study!
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rockwall
Special user
762 Posts
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Posted: Aug 21, 2015 06:38 pm
0
Http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/27/bl......-widget/
"For another, if you read the “methodology” section of the Bloomberg piece, you’ll discover why Roston & Migliozzi showed no separate scale for their GHG levels. It’s because, despite the “greenhouse gases” label on their graph, they did not actually graph greenhouse gas levels.
That’s right. even though the graph’s caption says, “It Really Is Greenhouse Gases,” they really did not graph greenhouse gases.
Instead, they graphed what GISS’s favorite computer model apparently calculated that temperatures ought to have been"
From Pop's own quote about methodology:
"What the Lines Show
The black "observed" line is the GISS global land and ocean temperature record, which can be found here. It starts in 1880.
The colored temperature lines are the modeled estimates that each climate factor contributes to the overall temperature. Each factor was simulated five times, with different initial conditions; each slide here shows the average of five runs."
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Steve_Mollett
Inner circle
Eh, so I've made
3006 Posts
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Posted: Aug 21, 2015 06:59 pm
0
The planet will be so much better off with the extinction of humanity.
Author of: GARROTE ESCAPES
The absurd is the essential concept and the first truth.
- Albert Camus
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rockwall
Special user
762 Posts
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Posted: Aug 21, 2015 07:28 pm
0
Quote: On Aug 21, 2015, Steve_Mollett wrote:
The planet will be so much better off with the extinction of humanity.
Well, you know, we've already past so many 'tipping points' where if we hadn't done anything by then, then it would be too late that all we really have left is to sit back and say ...
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Slim King
Eternal Order
Orlando
18012 Posts
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Posted: Aug 22, 2015 06:18 pm
0
THE MAN THE SKEPTICS REFUSE TO TEST FOR ONE MILLION DOLLARS.. The Worlds Foremost Authority on Houdini's Life after Death.....
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Dannydoyle
Eternal Order
21219 Posts
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Posted: Aug 22, 2015 08:33 pm
0
Quote: On Aug 21, 2015, Steve_Mollett wrote:
The planet will be so much better off with the extinction of humanity.
Nothing says starting a trend won't help.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
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R.S.
Regular user
CT one day I'll have
184 Posts
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Posted: Aug 22, 2015 10:39 pm
0
First, Al Gore is not a climate scientist. Secondly, as far as major hurricanes in Florida, there have been FOUR 10 year periods since 1896 in which a major hurricane was absent:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Florida_hurricanes
1896-1906
1950-1960
1965-1975
1975-1985
Nationwide, here is the frequency of hurricanes by decade:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html
2000 - 2009 - 32
1990 - 1999 - 33
1980 - 1989 - 29
1970 - 1979 - 22
1960 - 1969 - 36
1950 - 1959 - 40
1940 - 1949 - 51
1930 - 1939 - 36
1920 - 1929 - 30
1910 - 1919 - 43
1900 - 1909 - 29
1890 - 1899 - 41
1880 - 1889 - 45
1870 - 1879 - 36
1860 - 1869 - 27
1850 - 1859 - 32
With the average frequency being 35 per decade. So the last decade is not at all unusual.
Also, from
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes
Quote: Global Warming and Hurricanes
F. Synthesis and Summary
In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm counts over the past 120+ yr support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. A new modeling study projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, but we estimate that this increase may not be detectable until the latter half of the century.
Therefore, we conclude that despite statistical correlations between SST and Atlantic hurricane activity in recent decades, it is premature to conclude that human activity--and particularly greenhouse warming--has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity. ("Detectable" here means the change is large enough to be distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes.) However, human activity may have already caused some some changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observation limitations, or are not yet properly modeled (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate).
We also conclude that it is likely that climate warming will cause hurricanes in the coming century to be more intense globally and to have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes. In our view, there are better than even odds that the numbers of very intense (category 4 and 5) hurricanes will increase by a substantial fraction in some basins, while it is likely that the annual number of tropical storms globally will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged. These assessment statements are intended to apply to climate warming of the type projected for the 21st century by IPCC AR4 scenarios, such as A1B.
The relatively conservative confidence levels attached to these projections, and the lack of a claim of detectable anthropogenic influence at this time contrasts with the situation for other climate metrics, such as global mean temperature. In the case of global mean surface temperature, the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (2013) presents a strong body of scientific evidence that most of the global warming observed over the past half century is very likely due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.
So hurricane activity is not necessarily a good metric of AGW to begin with. Besides, there appears to be sufficient evidence to support AGW even if one ignores hurricane activity.
Oh, and July 2015 was the hottest month ever recorded! And this year may be on track to surpass 2014 as the hottest year ever!
Ron
"It is error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry." Thomas Paine
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mastermindreader
1949 - 2017
Seattle, WA
12586 Posts
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Posted: Aug 22, 2015 11:13 pm
0
Slim ignored that last part even though it's been front page news the last few days.
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NicholasD
Inner circle
1458 Posts
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Posted: Aug 22, 2015 11:49 pm
0
When scientists stop using terms like "most of" and "very likely" when discussing man-made global warming, I might start paying attention.
Until then...meh...
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R.S.
Regular user
CT one day I'll have
184 Posts
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Posted: Aug 23, 2015 12:12 am
0
Quote: On Aug 22, 2015, NicholasD wrote:
When scientists stop using terms like "most of" and "very likely" when discussing man-made global warming, I might start paying attention.
Until then...meh...
But that's how science works. Nothing can be known to absolute 100% certainty. It's "very likely" that the Sun will rise tomorrow, but even that is not an absolute certainty.
Ron
"It is error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry." Thomas Paine
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Dannydoyle
Eternal Order
21219 Posts
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Posted: Aug 23, 2015 12:20 am
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Yea I was going to mention how scientific method is our best guess within guidelines and such but VERY few things are 100%.
Problem is it seems as if I agree with those I don't so I won't mention it!
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
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rockwall
Special user
762 Posts
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Posted: Aug 23, 2015 12:31 am
0
Quote: On Aug 22, 2015, R.S. wrote:
First, Al Gore is not a climate scientist. Secondly, as far as major hurricanes in Florida, there have been FOUR 10 year periods since 1896 in which a major hurricane was absent:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Florida_hurricanes
1896-1906
1950-1960
1965-1975
1975-1985
Nationwide, here is the frequency of hurricanes by decade:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html
2000 - 2009 - 32
1990 - 1999 - 33
1980 - 1989 - 29
1970 - 1979 - 22
1960 - 1969 - 36
1950 - 1959 - 40
1940 - 1949 - 51
1930 - 1939 - 36
1920 - 1929 - 30
1910 - 1919 - 43
1900 - 1909 - 29
1890 - 1899 - 41
1880 - 1889 - 45
1870 - 1879 - 36
1860 - 1869 - 27
1850 - 1859 - 32
With the average frequency being 35 per decade. So the last decade is not at all unusual.
Also, from
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes
Quote: Global Warming and Hurricanes
F. Synthesis and Summary
In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm counts over the past 120+ yr support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. A new modeling study projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, but we estimate that this increase may not be detectable until the latter half of the century.
Therefore, we conclude that despite statistical correlations between SST and Atlantic hurricane activity in recent decades, it is premature to conclude that human activity--and particularly greenhouse warming--has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity. ("Detectable" here means the change is large enough to be distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes.) However, human activity may have already caused some some changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observation limitations, or are not yet properly modeled (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate).
We also conclude that it is likely that climate warming will cause hurricanes in the coming century to be more intense globally and to have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes. In our view, there are better than even odds that the numbers of very intense (category 4 and 5) hurricanes will increase by a substantial fraction in some basins, while it is likely that the annual number of tropical storms globally will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged. These assessment statements are intended to apply to climate warming of the type projected for the 21st century by IPCC AR4 scenarios, such as A1B.
The relatively conservative confidence levels attached to these projections, and the lack of a claim of detectable anthropogenic influence at this time contrasts with the situation for other climate metrics, such as global mean temperature. In the case of global mean surface temperature, the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (2013) presents a strong body of scientific evidence that most of the global warming observed over the past half century is very likely due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.
So hurricane activity is not necessarily a good metric of AGW to begin with. Besides, there appears to be sufficient evidence to support AGW even if one ignores hurricane activity.
Oh, and July 2015 was the hottest month ever recorded! And this year may be on track to surpass 2014 as the hottest year ever!
Ron
That's all well and good but you DO remember how all the AGW scaremongers were warning us about more and more hurricanes and more and more severe hurricanes after Hurrican Katrina, don't you? (Not just hurricanes either, more and more severe weather patterns in general.)
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Dannydoyle
Eternal Order
21219 Posts
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Posted: Aug 23, 2015 01:41 am
0
Yes the scare mongers did mention that and did get kind of quiet when no such thing happened.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
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R.S.
Regular user
CT one day I'll have
184 Posts
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Posted: Aug 23, 2015 01:28 pm
0
Quote: On Aug 22, 2015, rockwall wrote:
That's all well and good but you DO remember how all the AGW scaremongers were warning us about more and more hurricanes and more and more severe hurricanes after Hurrican Katrina, don't you? (Not just hurricanes either, more and more severe weather patterns in general.)
The data shows that severe weather events have been more frequent (Note that this was published in 2011 - before recording the hottest year ever in 2014, and 2015 being on track to top even that. Also note the mention of the trends for droughts and wildfires, and how much California has been in the news lately):
http://www.c2es.org/publications/extreme......e-change
Quote: Thousands of record-breaking weather events worldwide bolster long-term trends of increasing heat waves, heavy precipitation, droughts and wildfires. A combination of observed trends, theoretical understanding of the climate system, and numerical modeling demonstrates that global warming is increasing the risk of these types of events today.
Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes in temperature or precipitation, but most of the social and economic costs associated with climate change will result from shifts in the frequency and severity of extreme events.1 This fact is illustrated by a large number of costly weather disasters in 2010, which tied 2005 as the warmest year globally since 1880.2 Incidentally, both years were noted for exceptionally damaging weather events, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the deadly Russian heat wave in 2010. Other remarkable events of 2010 include Pakistan’s biggest flood, Canada’s warmest year, and Southwest Australia’s driest year. 2011 continued in similar form, with “biblical” flooding in Australia, the second hottest summer in U.S. history, devastating drought and wildfires in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona as well as historic flooding in North Dakota, the Lower Mississippi and in the Northeast.3
Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, has compiled global disaster for 1980-2010. In its analysis, 2010 had the second-largest (after 2007) number of recorded natural disasters and the fifth-greatest economic losses.4 Although there were far more deaths from geological disasters—almost entirely from the Haiti earthquake—more than 90 percent of all disasters and 65 percent of associated economic damages were weather and climate related (i.e. high winds, flooding, heavy snowfall, heat waves, droughts, wildfires). In all, 874 weather and climate-related disasters resulted in 68,000 deaths and $99 billion in damages worldwide in 2010.
The fact that 2010 was one of the warmest years on record as well as one of the most disastrous, begs the question: Is global warming causing more extreme weather? The short and simple answer is yes, at least for heat waves and heavy precipitation.
Since 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year on record globally, it should come as no surprise that 19 countries set new national high-temperature records; this is the largest number of national high temperature records in a single year, besting 2007 by two.6 One of the countries was Pakistan, which registered “the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia” (128.3 °F on May 26 in Mohenjo-daro).7 Strikingly, no new national record low-temperatures occurred in 2010.8 Several historic heat waves occurred across the globe, as well. Unprecedented summer heat in western Russia caused wildfires and destroyed one-third of Russia’s wheat crop; the combination of extreme heat, smog, and smoke killed 56,000 people.9 In China, extreme heat and the worst drought in 100 years struck Yunan province, causing crop failures and setting the stage for further devastation by locust swarms.10 In the United States, the summer of 2010 featured record breaking heat on the east coast with temperatures reaching 106 degrees as far north as Maryland.11 Records also were set for energy demand and the size of the area affected by extreme warmth.12 Even in California where the average temperatures were below normal, Los Angeles set its all-time high temperature record of 113 degrees on September 27.
Global precipitation was also far above normal, with 2010 ranking as the wettest year since 1900.13 Many areas received record heavy rainfall and flooding. Westward shifts of the monsoon dropped 12 inches of rain across wide areas of Pakistan, flooding the Indus River valley, displacing millions of people and destabilizing an already precariously balanced nation.14 Rio de Janeiro received the heaviest rainfall in 30 years—almost 12 inches in 24 hours, causing nearly 300 mudslides and killing at least 900 people.15
Developed countries also suffered debilitating downpours. On the heels of Queensland, Australia’s wettest spring since 1900, December rainfall broke records in 107 locations.16 Widespread flooding shaved an estimated $30 billion off Australia’s GDP.17 The United States experienced several record breaking torrential downpours. In Tennessee, an estimated 1,000-year flooding event18 brought more than a foot of rain in two days, resulting in record flooding and over two billion dollars in damages in Nashville alone, equivalent to a full year of economic output for that city. In Arkansas, an unprecedented 7 inches of rain fell in a few hours, causing flash flooding as rivers swelled up to 20 feet.19 Wisconsin had its wettest summer on record, which is remarkable given the series of historic floods that have impacted the upper Midwest over the last two decades.
In 2011, there have already been three separate historic floods in the United States, the driest 12 months ever recorded in Texas, and a record breaking tornado outbreak (see Box 2).20 Damages from Hurricane Irene, much of which is flood related, are estimated to be between $7 and $10 billion, making it one of the top ten most damaging hurricanes ever to hit the US.
The historic weather extremes of 2010 and 2011 fit into a larger narrative of damaging extreme weather events in recent decades. Recent heat waves in Russia and the United States have evoked memories of the 1995 heat wave that killed hundreds of Chicagoans, and the 2003 European heat wave that killed at least 35,000 people.22 In the United States, the number of storms costing more than $100 million has increased dramatically since 1990. Although the 2010 flooding in the American Midwest was highly damaging, it was not on the scale of the 1993 and 2008 events, each costing billions of dollars and of such ferocity that they should be expected to occur only once in 300 years.23 Other unprecedented disasters include the 2008 California wildfires that burned over a million acres,24 and the decade-long Southwest drought, which continues in spite of an uncharacteristically wet winter.25 Mumbai, India, recorded its highest ever daily rainfall with a deluge of 39 inches that flooded the city in July of 2005.26 This neared the Indian daily record set the year before when 46 inches fell in Aminidivi, which more than doubled 30-year-old record of 22.6 inches.27 Torrential downpours continued for the next week, killing hundreds of people and displacing as many as 1 million.
Over the past 50 years, total rainfall has increased by 7 percent globally, much of which is due to increased frequency of heavy downpours. In the United States, the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest 1 percent of rain events has increased by nearly 20 percent overall, while the frequency of light and moderate events has been steady or decreasing (Fig. 1).30 Meanwhile, heat waves have become more humid, thereby increasing biological heat stress, and are increasingly characterized by extremely high nighttime temperatures, which are responsible for most heat-related deaths.31 In the western United States, drought is more frequent and more persistent, while the Midwest experiences less frequent drought but more frequent heavy precipitation.32
Record daytime and nighttime high temperatures have been increasing on a global scale.33 In the United States today, a record high temperature is twice as likely to be broken as a record low, and nighttime temperature records show a strong upward trend (Fig. 2). By contrast, record highs and lows were about equally likely in the 1950s (Fig. 3).34 This trend shows that the risk of heat waves is increasing over time, consistent with the results of global climate models that are forced by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.35 Indeed, the observed heat wave intensities in the early 21st century already exceed the worst-case projections of climate models.36 Moreover, the distribution of observed temperatures is wider than the temperature range produced by climate models, suggesting that models may underestimate the rising risk extreme heat as warming proceeds.
Ron
"It is error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry." Thomas Paine
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Slim King
Eternal Order
Orlando
18012 Posts
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Posted: Aug 23, 2015 06:00 pm
0
Let's get this straight ... I've ALWAYS said there is global warming between Ice Ages. It's a simple fact. Global warming happens between every Ice Age, even if mankind is NOT present.
Al Gore made about $100 million pushing a man made agenda.... He said there would be more hurricanes in Florida... He was 100% WRONG ....Why do you follow the cult of personalities??? Can't you see the facts? ... NO HURRICANES FOR OVER TEN YEARS IN FLORIDA!!!!!!
THE SUN HEATS THE EARTH!!!!
THE MAN THE SKEPTICS REFUSE TO TEST FOR ONE MILLION DOLLARS.. The Worlds Foremost Authority on Houdini's Life after Death.....
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Uli Weigel
Inner circle
Berlin, Germany
1478 Posts
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Posted: Aug 23, 2015 06:48 pm
0
Quote: THE SUN HEATS THE EARTH!!!!
It also dries out brains!!!!!
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Slim King
Eternal Order
Orlando
18012 Posts
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Posted: Aug 23, 2015 07:30 pm
0
THE MAN THE SKEPTICS REFUSE TO TEST FOR ONE MILLION DOLLARS.. The Worlds Foremost Authority on Houdini's Life after Death.....
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R.S.
Regular user
CT one day I'll have
184 Posts
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Posted: Aug 23, 2015 08:54 pm
2
I finally figured it out!!! Slim's ROTFLMAO stands for:
"Regardless Of The Facts, Listen to My Assinine Observations."
Ron
"It is error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry." Thomas Paine
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