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Steve Martin Inner circle 1119 Posts |
I have got three large sealed opaque cardboard boxes.
I tell you that one of the boxes contains a million dollars. I tell you that the other two boxes are empty. I know which box contains the money. I invite you to select a box, and tell you that you can keep the contents. You select one of the boxes by pointing to it. Of the two remaining boxes, I open one which I know to be empty. There are now just two closed boxes. I now invite you to either stick with your original selection, or change your mind and select the other closed box. Assuming that you really want the money, is it in your interests to change your selection? Or is it better to stick with your original selection? Or is either option just as good? (If you KNOW the answer to this, keep it quiet for a while - so that everyone else can debate a few theories... more fun that way! I'll tell you the answer later).
Any man who reads too much and uses his own brain too little falls into lazy habits of thinking.
Albert Einstein |
dlhoyt Regular user 176 Posts |
This is the Monte Hall problem dressed up in a different form.
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MacGyver Inner circle St. Louis, MO 1419 Posts |
Yeah.... I would change my mind, because then your choosing 50% instead of 75%
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Magictrickster Regular user UK 114 Posts |
There is a correct mathematical solution to this problem - I'll not say what it is as Steve has said not to yet.
However, when the problem surfaced at the end of the last century (1990) it baffled some of the world's top mathematicians. Marilyn von Savant, who billed herself as the persom with the 'Highest IQ ever recorded', published the solution in her magazine column, and caused a srit in the mathematical world. Top Mathematicians such as Paul Erdos didn't initially agree with her solution - but she was in fact correct. This fascinating problem is discussed in Paul Hoffman's book on Erdos 'The Man Who Loved only Numbers', and was also discussed by Mathematical Professor Ian Stewart in his Royal Institution Christmas Lectures on TV in 1997. Best wishes, Brian.
Brian
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converter111 New user 7 Posts |
McGyver, you are wrong! I know the answer to this Monty Hall problem also, but I want to hear other theories!
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Fon Regular user London, UK 200 Posts |
If I choose the correct box at the beginning I have the correct box at the end.
If I choose the incorrect box at the beginning I have the incorrect box at the end. It is far more likely that I will choose the incorrect box to start off with, therefore I should always switch, Fon
Always thinking..........?
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Ustaad Inner circle Iindia - States 6157 Posts |
Switching actually DOUBLES the contestant's chance of winning. The odds go up from the original 1/3 for the chosen box, to 2/3 that the OTHER unopened box hides the money - Monte Hall Problem.
http://www.maa.org/devlin/devlin_07_03.html
MAGIC is a SECRET, without the SECRET there is no MAGIC.
"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." - Arthur C. Clarke. |
Jonathan Townsend Eternal Order Ossining, NY 27297 Posts |
Ah, you mean the check is not folded up in a TT that he has ready to 'reveal'?
...to all the coins I've dropped here
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jalsing New user Allen, TX 89 Posts |
So I wonder if any stats are available for the actual Monte Hall contestants... Do their choices and winnings match to the mathematical odds (Did the contestants that changed their minds win twice as much as those who stayed with their original choice?)
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