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Topic: Deal or No Deal
Message: Posted by: TomasB (Mar 23, 2006 07:51AM)
This Saturday a series that has been in 35 countries prior will come to Sweden. It is called "Deal or No Deal". In the finals the player will see 24 briefcases and pick one of them to keep the rest of the game. One of them contains 500 000 dollars and there are mixed lesser amounts in the others. That's all I know. Maybe someone else can fill in the info about the contents.

The player keeps her briefcase closed and open one of the others. Free choice I think. Any of those briefcases the player opens are eliminated from the game, so opening the 500 000 dollar case is bad.

Now they will offer the player money for the case picked at the very beginning. If the offer is turned down the player must open another of the reamining 22 cases and again that case is eliminated. Now the player gets a new offer (which is based on which cases have been eliminated) for her case.

Is there a good strategy to know when to take the offered amount?

I know that much info is probably missing but maybe someone have actually seen the show and can provide some details.

Message: Posted by: magicjohn2278 (Mar 23, 2006 08:07AM)
Watched it once here in the UK - didn't find it very entertaining!
Message: Posted by: the Sponge (Mar 23, 2006 10:56AM)
Go to addictinggames.com and you will find this game to play for fun online.

Message: Posted by: TomasB (Mar 23, 2006 11:31AM)
Thank you very much, Sponge! The problem formulation is much clearer now!

The bank offers you X dollars and there are N briefcases left to open (one of them is yours) and you know _exactly_ which amounts there are in those cases, just not which one has which. Should you take the offer?

Is that a correct and good formulation of the problem? Maybe

"If you turn the offer down you need to open M more cases."

needs to be added to be able to calculate a winning strategy.

Message: Posted by: Daegs (Mar 24, 2006 09:14PM)
But remember, the amount(X) you are offered results from the total amount of money left in unopened briefcases....

Which means your X can go up or down randomly based on which are removed, but depending on the balance(# of cases) of high and low there are different probabilities of X for the next round.

I think we need the forumla for X given the cases remaining to move on....

It seems to be about the average amoutn of money, but then surely the # of cases on high/low end much affect it...
Message: Posted by: TomasB (Mar 25, 2006 01:22AM)
Dages, I think you are very right in that we need to be able to predict what their expected offer is on the next round if you turn the present offer down. Could it be that they simply offer the average of the cases that are left? I have never seen the show so I do not know.

There is a chance however that the next offer will not matter since it is dependant on which cases you actually open. If you open a lot of high value cases the next offer will go down. If you open a lot of low value cases the offer will go up. So maybe the next offer sort of ("sort of" is a strict mathematical term ;) )is removed from the expected winnings that way.

Another factor is how much the offered money makes a difference in the person's life. If he is offered 100 dollars I doubt he will take it at any stage of the game, but if he his offered 100 000 dollars he will probably take it even if there is a big probability at that point that he has the case with the biggest amount.

Tough game! Will be very interesting to see it eventually. Does the bank know the contents of the player's bag?

Message: Posted by: mike paris (Mar 25, 2006 09:47AM)
I think the game is a CON (in uk), at the start of the game only 1 person knows what is in each box, when the person is selected to play, they say, you picked that particular box, the banker does not know and I do not know.It cold be the person puts the amounts in the boxes is the one who selects the person to play, then after the game starts then he could notify the banker who is not ON the program,of the contents of the box, why do I think its a fiddle, I have been watching the UK version for about 20 shows, at the end there is choice between 2 boxes and the offer is sometimes between the 2 boxes and sometimes its a lot less, or more if they have already agreed to take the offer (deal)Also the person running the show,it was stated a couple of days ago he is the highest payed show host of 3million, a few people have been killed see for yourself.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noel_Edmunds