Topic: Help...Math Smarties! RV Odds
 Message: Posted by: Slim King (Jun 11, 2006 07:20AM)
Please help me figure the odds on getting either digit correct etc.
I'm ignorant.
See the experiment here.
http://www.themagiccafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?topic=166108&forum=15
Thanks
Dave
 Message: Posted by: Nir Dahan (Jun 12, 2006 04:32AM)
Can you post a full description of the problem. the link didn't help...
 Message: Posted by: Slim King (Jun 12, 2006 07:59AM)
There are three boxes...Each contain a two digit number 10- 99. You have three guesses( RV's).
What are the odds of hitting the exact numbers in the exact boxes?
What are the odds of hitting one of the two digits in each box?
What are the odds of hitting any of the digits in any box?
Those kinds of odds.
Thanks
Dave
 Message: Posted by: Nir Dahan (Jun 12, 2006 08:54AM)
Sorry dave it is not clear enough

if one box has 32 and you guess 23, does it consider you hit the digits? or position is also important. do you also need to have the raltive positions fit as well

another example:
boxes contain 23 45 57
you guess 25 is it 2 or 3 hits?
 Message: Posted by: Joshua Quinn (Jun 12, 2006 08:56AM)
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure it's like this:

Assuming all three numbers are different, and discounting any possible "psychological influence" factors (i.e. "it's under fifty, both digits are odd, but they're different")...

>What are the odds of hitting the exact numbers in the exact boxes?

1/100 x 1/99 x 1/98 = 1 in 970,200

>What are the odds of hitting one of the two digits in each box?

The odds of hitting one digit in [i]one[/i] box would basically be like two tries at a 1 in 10 chance. So it would be 2 in 10 (or simplified, 1 in 5). So the odds of doing that for all three boxes would be:

1/5 x 1/5 x 1/5 = 1 in 125

>What are the odds of hitting any of the digits in any box?

This depends on whether you're specifying the box or not, i.e. "There's a 6 in this box" vs. "There's a 6 in one of the boxes, somewhere." In the first case, there are a total of 2 digits to pick from, which means you've got two 1-in-10 shots, so the chances are 1 in 5. In the second case, there are a total of 6 digits to pick from, which means six 1-in-10 shots, so the chances are 6 in 10.
 Message: Posted by: idris (Jun 12, 2006 01:07PM)
Dave,
Are we guarenteed that the three boxes have different values? I would assume so but it can make a difference.

Quinn,
The numbers are from 10 to 99, not 1 to 100. So the first part would be 1/90 x 1/89 x 1/88 or 1 in 704880.

Haven't had time to play with the others yet. Nir's questions need answered as well.
 Message: Posted by: Slim King (Jun 12, 2006 04:40PM)
I would think that the position would be important, but it would be nice to know the odds if simply the digits were correct....What if the numbers were reversed...etc...? Or the correct number in the wrong box?
Thanks
Dave

Posted: Jun 23, 2006 9:42am
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[b]Here's the results! The contents of the boxes were:[/b]
Gargoyle....Number 16....sixteen
The Angel....Number 22....twenty two
The Sarcophagus....Number 43.....forty three
In that order.....16,22,43
Here are some good attempts.
36, 12, 42 Kaytracy A correct digit in each number!
17, 26, 43 Harishjoe Off buy one, off by four and a direct hit!
13, 21, 34 Dr. Spector A correct digit in each number and the last one reversed.
Only seven or eight people sumitted their thoughts. To me this seems prety good. Is it?