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Topic: Corona Virus outlook
Message: Posted by: Ken Northridge (Mar 26, 2020 04:09PM)
I hope this is not a breech of ethics but I copied this from a facebook post. This person obviously wants to help the magic community so I didn't think he'd mind.

"I�m located in the Seattle area, the epicenter for the coronavirus in the U.S. Over the past week I�ve had 10 days worth of shows (assemblies and birthday parties) cancel or postpone indefinitely, and I anticipate more will be happening. I also teach after-school magic classes at local schools, and 2 of the districts have now cancelled after-school activities, affecting 3 of my schools. One of the private schools I teach at had only 4 out of the 21 children in my classes in attendance yesterday (not because they were sick, but parents kept them home). I anticipate they will close next week, as the teachers were in a seminar today about using google classroom.

One local district of 24 schools has closed for at least 2 weeks, others (so far) are staying open but are not doing large events. And this is when no children have been reported being sick.

The reason I�m posting this is to ready everyone else here. I�ll bet that this will touch everyone in the country at some point, if not this spring, then summer library shows, fairs, etc. Make sure you have a savings cushion that you can live off of for awhile.

There isn�t much I can do about the shows right now, but I am going to offer my magic classes via video conference, so I can at least continue that part of my business. Hang on, it�s going to be a rough ride!"
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Mar 26, 2020 04:11PM)
Thanks Ken for posting that. I think this is a wake up call for the entire world. Everyone needs to come together to get through this. It will get better but currently I am afraid it will worsen. I feel for those who have the virus and my prayers go out to them.

It is way overblown in my opinion both in my world and all over. I went through this before like everyone else. It was never this overblown. Sure it will get worse, absolutely. There will more then just 500 deaths. The regular flu does a lot more. It is only temporary. Most of the public do not see that. Take precautions and move on.




Decomposing Nonsense
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Mar 26, 2020 04:16PM)
The reason you see regular flu mortality rates higher is:

1) The figures for dying from regular flu are one half percent.

2) Covid 19 the figures are one percent.

Therefore Corona is ten times deadlier then the regular flu.

However those are just figures based on S Korea and China. Our number of cases will of course will keep going up as test kits are made available. Prevention is the key, not panic. Just need to ride it out and be ready to take the big bump in the road.

Decomposing panic
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 26, 2020 04:18PM)
Long term it will recover. It always does
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Mar 26, 2020 04:19PM)
Just to be clear. If one wants to fear, ride a bike. Just driving to the store to buy and hoard toilet paper you are 100 times (minimum) more likely to get killed then the Covid 19. Vehicle fatalities in USA alone average about 37000 a year or 102 a day. Worldwide. 1.2 million a year. Think if Corona was killing 102 a day in the US. What you are seeing may be justified I would think. But I have not seen too many people worried about driving, at least in my neck of the woods. The only reason they would not be is self isolation.

BTW: OJ Simpson wore a mask to buy tons of water at COSTCO the other day.

Whether the media is to blame or not, huge corporations are keeping their employees close to home and big events are cancelling.

CDC is telling anyone over 60 to stay home. Heck I am a runner and plenty of over 60 year olds whip my butt and I am not that slow.

Decomposing Communication :baby: :smiletear:
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 26, 2020 04:41PM)
The shocking part is the amount of people to whom it seems hand washing is a new thing.

THAT will be the downfall of society!
Message: Posted by: Vandecarr (Mar 26, 2020 04:42PM)
I've been a germaphobe for as long as I can remember. I hate getting anything on my hands and wash them constantly. I'm glad the new trend of good hygiene is starting to catch on! :)
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Mar 26, 2020 04:42PM)
Agree, if everyone pays attention to hygiene, perhaps we will get through this a lot quicker and back to the old normal.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 26, 2020 04:43PM)
Well I guess our point was if the old normal is not knowing to wash your hands then getting back to that might not be a good idea.

Mike you don't have to he a germaphobe to know being clean is a good idea.

On an unrelated note if we were once Facebook friends and then you started to post a bunch of stuff about hand washing as if you just discovered plutonium and then I unfriended you, the series of events is probably related. Just sayin.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 26, 2020 04:46PM)
2000: Y2K is going to kill us all (remember this one?)
2001: Anthrax is going to kill us all
2002: West Nile is going to kill us all
2003: SARS is going to kill us all
2005: BIRD flu is going to kill us all (Scary for Bird acts huh?)
2006: ECOLI is going to kill us all
2008: The bad economy is going to kill us all (Showing both political parties are not above being opportunists.)
2009: SWINE flu is going to kill us all
2010: BP oil is going to kill us all
2012: The Mayan calendar is going to kill us all (THIS was my personal favorite)
2013: North Korea is going to kill us all
2014: Ebola virus is going to kill us all
2015: Disney measles and ISIS are going to kill us all
2016: Zika virus is going to kill us all
2020: Corona Virus is going to kill us all

Stop buying in to the madness!

The STORY is the thing! That is what media of all stripes and flavors HAS to sell. It is all they have to sell.

This is a short list, and does not include things like the way they report hurricanes and natural disasters. (Even Global Climate Change is overblown on purpose. I am NOT saying it doesn't happen or isn't happening, I am saying they REPORT it to incite people. Always have.)

All we need to really do is quit listening to the nonsense.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 26, 2020 04:50PM)
Https://www.diamandis.com/blog/coronavirus-fear-vs-reality

I just wish the people who have committed this CRIME of misrepresenting this into panic could be held accountable.

I totally left that out sorry. HOW STUPID of me! LOL.

Here is a takeaway from the article.

"Over the past week, our amygdalas (the fear centers of our brain) have been in overdrive.

As Coronavirus (and anxiety) spread, I�m concerned by the level of pandemic fear circulating through our news and social media.

The goal of this blog is to give you a thoughtful alternative to fear� to contextualize what you are hearing�

Let�s talk about death rates� While this is no apples-to-apples comparison, how we react to death is primal. And when we hear about Coronavirus-induced deaths, we go on red alert. But allow me to contextualize the numbers for you.

(Disclaimer: The below compared populations are different (China vs. world), and infectious diseases do not maintain a consistent daily average. But the point still stands�)

On one of the worst days for Coronavirus in China (February 10, 2020), 108 people died. But on a given day, globally:

26,283 people die of cancer;
49,041 people die of cardiovascular diseases;
4,383 people die of diabetes.
Meanwhile, suicide takes on average 2,191 lives�.

Mosquitoes take the lives of over 2,740 people, and�.

And HUMANS kill an average of 1,287 fellow people, every single day."

The other point to make is that not NEARLY everyone who gets it dies. Many get it, stay home and recover. The people who possess other immunodeficiency problems are the ones who are fatal. Healthy people GENERALLY recover. AND we have NO CLUE what the number of those who recover is.

Living in fear is just stupid.
Message: Posted by: Pete Legend (Mar 26, 2020 04:52PM)
[quote]On Mar 11, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
2000: Y2K is going to kill us all (remember this one?)
2001: Anthrax is going to kill us all
2002: West Nile is going to kill us all
2003: SARS is going to kill us all
2005: BIRD flu is going to kill us all (Scary for Bird acts huh?)
2006: ECOLI is going to kill us all
2008: The bad economy is going to kill us all (Showing both political parties are not above being opportunists.)
2009: SWINE flu is going to kill us all
2010: BP oil is going to kill us all
2012: The Mayan calendar is going to kill us all (THIS was my personal favorite)
2013: North Korea is going to kill us all
2014: Ebola virus is going to kill us all
2015: Disney measles and ISIS are going to kill us all
2016: Zika virus is going to kill us all
2020: Corona Virus is going to kill us all

Stop buying in to the madness!

The STORY is the thing! That is what media of all stripes and flavors HAS to sell. It is all they have to sell.

This is a short list, and does not include things like the way they report hurricanes and natural disasters. (Even Global Climate Change is overblown on purpose. I am NOT saying it doesn't happen or isn't happening, I am saying they REPORT it to incite people. Always have.)

All we need to really do is quit listening to the nonsense. [/quote]

Absolutely spot on!
Message: Posted by: Keith Raygor (Mar 26, 2020 04:53PM)
For those laying copious amounts of blame on the media:

* I wonder if the travel bans from Europe are a response to media's misrepresentations, or a response to the medical issue at hand?
* I also wonder if the NBA's suspension of games is their response to the media's overhype, or if they're trying to curb the spread of this disease that has shown to be 10 times more lethal than the common flu?
* Regarding the clients that are cancelling shows, are they overreacting to this media bias you're pointing out? Or are they trying to protect their employees and attendees by reacting to the speed at which the virus is spreading?

In 1976, I was compelled by the US government to get a vaccine against swine flu. So I've seen plenty more than those various viruses listed from the last 20 years (none of which I heard was going to "kill us all". That may be dramatic license.). But I can safely say that this one is different than ALL of those. Proof lies in the existence of this thread.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 26, 2020 04:55PM)
So you believe that the media is acting responsibly? Ok that is a position to take.
Message: Posted by: Keith Raygor (Mar 26, 2020 04:57PM)
No, and I haven't inferred that in any of my sentences. It also misses my point.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 26, 2020 05:02PM)
The "panic" is real. Is it warranted? Hard to say as I AM NOT qualified to make that decision.

I DO KNOW that media only cares about people who pay attention to them. I DO KNOW they are irresponsible in every way imaginable and more.

That may or may not directly relate to the virus. It DIRECTLY relates to the perception of it.
Message: Posted by: The Mysterious One (Mar 26, 2020 05:03PM)
Well, the projection from the Director of the CDC is not good. Best case scenario - .1% of the US population gets ill with a potential of 325 deaths. Worse case scenario - 50% of the population becomes ill with 1.6M deaths. No one knows how pervasive this pandemic will be. I have had a few cancelled gigs,and it is not going to alleviate anytime soon. Any live entertainment is going to take it in the shorts (including theaters and us). I know one thing for sure, a new normal is here that will hurt our bottom lines as entertainment businesses for at least the next few months, maybe longer. The virus is beyond scary to those of us that may have compromised immune systems, are over 60 and have underlying health issues, or have friends and families that fall into those categories.

Wishing for everyone to stay healthy. The panic is real, and hopefully Coronavirus is not as serious as projected. Even the best case scenario makes me sad. Being a person that had a coworker a floor above me exposed to Coronavirus (forcing everyone on that person's floor in self quarantine), a sister that work shutdown immediately today after her coworker contracted coronavirus (everyone is now in self quarantine), and a sister that saw Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia light years ahead of the US in terms of preparedness and prevention from her 10 week trip, we are definitely for a rough ride...financially, physically, and mentally.

Good magic and health to all...
Message: Posted by: The Mysterious One (Mar 26, 2020 05:04PM)
Correction - The CDC Ex-Director made those projections on Coronavirus

Also, I agree with David's assessments about the media. I have spent time looking at the CDC site and looking at several sources. It is important to look at facts from reputable sources (CDC). However, keep in mind that the CDC always estimate best case and worst case scenarios. Its worst case scenario in 2014 for Ebola was 1.4M dead. Thank God that didn't happen.

On a different note, I received an email from Cinemark's CEO talking about cleaning their theaters, training their employees (yes those teenagers that serve you popcorn) how to spot symptoms, clean thoroughly, etc. I had to roll my eyes. No matter what assurances are given, no one is going to movie theaters... A tough time is ahead for movie theaters as well...
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (Mar 26, 2020 05:16PM)
Long Post Warning! (If you don't like long posts, don't read this


I have been talking to many performers, entertainers, and entertainment business owners this past week. Everyone is on heightened emotions and concerns, ranging from wondering what�s happening, how long it will last, the expected ramifications of this, and what I think is going to happen? What will the other side of this be like?

So I will offer my thoughts and prediction on all of this. I thought I�d share it here so more people can hear it, perhaps create some perspective, and perhaps learn from it, and that their business can respond accordingly.

First, let�s separate a few things. Namely �react� and �respond" and "media" and social media" as both of these are at the heart of what is affecting you and your business. I should say this is directed at your business and operations, not you personally or your family.

How we respond anytime something like this is thrown at our business or industry, we have an initial decision to make - to react or respond. Reaction is usually emotion-based and can often be a reflex reaction. It is often your first reaction without much thought or knowledge behind it. Without a better understanding and the separating of facts from perceptions and opinions.

Responding are the actions we take once we understand to the best of our ability and have gathered facts and information to allow us to intelligently and strategically create a determination of how we �choose� to respond, carry on, prepare, and proceed.

I encourage everyone to understand these differences and to prevail by responding smartly and in the best interests of your business.

Next, I�ll address media vs. social media. The difference is credibility, facts, and sources. A great deal of the problem is due to reacting to social media. Unlike mainstream media, social media is based on opinions, theories, distorted views, fake, misperceived and/or completely taken out of context (or just completely made up) information. It is a �social" platform that anyone at any level of knowledge or intelligence (including lack thereof) can post information to the world. This must be remembered at all time. This is why there is panic and a frenzy in stores trying to find toilet paper, wipes, sanitizer, etc. This is really the first major pandemic in the mass social media era, and you can see the results. While social media is relatively new to situations like this, personal reactions have been around before this as well even with mainstream media (remember War of The Worlds?).

While mainstream media isn't always perfectly accurate, they are known for using legitimate sources such as the Center For Disease Control and others. They have protocol the use and follow and it often includes fact-checking, verifying, multiple sources, and direct contacts. It is not opinion-based or based on personal perceptions (leaving politics out of this), but rather legitimate sources and real-world, in the field resources. No, it may not be perfect, but it remains our best source for factual information being released.

Also understand how others are responding must be taken in the proper context. Business, large corporations and such must decide how they respond intelligently and strategically - IN THE BEST INTERESTS OF THEIR BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY. Also in the best interest of the clients and customers. So when someone cancels this or ceases their production, season, or events, yes, it is in part due to a safety and precautionary element, but it is also greatly in part due to perception, positioning, image, and strategy.

So, what do I think is going to happen?
First things are going to get weird, then they will get worse, then, yes, they will get better. For this initial period, it will be very strange and concerning. We must deal with what is in front of us. However, we must also think and plan how we will respond, our role in this, and strategize how we will want to deal and position our businesses as we come out of this whether it�s in two weeks, two months, or whenever. I don�t expect it to many months or two years as others are �predicting. However, the aftermath may have lingering effects.

What most people are going to do?
Most people will continue to panic until they see others lax�and then they'll stop.

They'll initially panic for two reasons:

First, because this is a new virus and potentially scary, and they are seeing how others are reacting.

Second, because of the media ...specifically social media - light on facts, heaving on opinion and here-say. As a society, we love to gossip and be involved, to share our thoughts, beliefs, and opinions. All �me-based� mentalities with an insatiable need to want to be heard. When so many people are trying to be heard the result is noise. Passing opinionated information on without fact or verification (sound familiar?).

The CDC and the World Health Organization is probably the best place to get your info about this situation

What does this mean for business?
Well, it depends? It depends on several things, but most of all HOW ARE YOU GOING TO RESPOND WITH YOUR BUSINESS? And Why?
Are you going to spend your time reading, listening to, and engaging in social media? Watching the news all day? And talking about it with people who know about the same as you do�or less?

Or are you going to take control and focus on your business?

Yes, of course, wash your hands, be aware, avoid crowded areas and situations, sanitize when you can, and stay at home if you can. Get tested if it gives you peace of mind, and check on the elderly - all good sound advice.

However, with that said�

Are you going to spend your time browsing social media, watching the news all day, and talking back and forth with people about this situation? Or are you going to FOCUS on business?

I recommend focusing on your business. Yes, your business may be affected by this and yes there may be some loss or changes (cancellations, postponements, rescheduling, etc.) but first, you need to decide how you want your business to respond to this with your clients, customers, and even new prospects. I suggest avoiding spreading misinformation or anything that leads to panic situations and positions. Context is important - both the context which you offer, but more importantly the context in which they receive your offered information.

As I�ve stated before view this as an opportunity. An opportunity to reach out to your clients and customers with concern, professionalism, helpfulness, and authority. Opportunity to shine on the other side of this and further your relationship. Opportunity to understand their positions and perspectives. An opportunity to educate and inform. To deal in real-world facts, solutions, and outcomes.

Also an opportunity to reconsider your business model. Those working gig to gig always going after your next booking are going to get hit the most. Those whose business model includes venues or events that are dependent on entertainment will likely rebound the quickest and be less affected in the greater picture.

Remember, most others, including your competition, will be following the herd with conventional thinking, reactions, and concern. Some may become paralyzed not doing what to think or do, while still browsing social media, getting caught up in the hype and fear, and reading everything (real, factual, or misinformation) about the coronavirus and focusing on the negatives - closings, increased numbers being reported, stores with empty shelves, what their neighbors are saying/doing, ...while simultaneously trying to separate fact from fiction, and of course watching the news for updates on everything coronavirus.�

That means they're NOT conducting business, promoting, generating business, and serving their clients, customers, and accounts. Not responding. Many will stop advertising and marketing, and continue generating business, relationships, and bookings. They simply easily decide the easiest path - �I�ll just have to wait and see what happens.�

The truth is your market is experiencing the same thing everyone else is. Uncertainty, concern, worry, and disruption. Your market needs a leader. Someone to lead, offer comfort, reiterate common business sense. Take advantage of this - stand up, lead, be the authority to others. You are the professional - serve your customers, their concerns, interests, and needs - just as good business should be doing on a regular and continual basis. The difference is in this current situation you will stand out and be recognized. Your efforts will be noticed and your efforts can make a difference in their mindset and level of comfort. Disarm the alarm.

Use this knowledge, behaviors, and how others are reacting and responding to your business advantage. This is a much better use of your time and energy. This will have beneficial results.

Now here is my greatest concern to our businesses�
Depending on how long this goes on, things may never be the same as before. Many working professionals performing for 20 years or more remember 9/11. Before 9/11 we had many bookings for companies, events, corporations, and such that regularly had guest audiences/attendees of 500, 800, or 1200 or more at every event or Grand Ballroom holiday party. As 9/11 and the aftermath occurred, many canceled their holiday events, trade shows, and other events for the near and foreseeable future. That holiday season many performers took a huge hit from holiday parties. Many thought that might be expected but thought it would bounce back for the following year.

It didn�t. Parties and events never got back to the numbers and attendance as pre-9/11. Instead smaller, departmental events prevailed. Company-wide events have never been the same. There became a new norm. Some performers died and couldn�t sustain. Others adapted, followed industry trends and information on the new re-established norm, and adapted their business to these new norms.

So regardless of what happens, there will be the other side of this. If this goes on more than 6-8 weeks or a few months or more, I suspect there will be a new norm for many.

We're going to get through this. Put your time, effort and energy into your business, serving your customers and clients, and strategizing moves that are best for your clients, performance markets, and your own business. Be proactive. Waiting to see will only put you behind the 8-ball and others being more aggressive towards their business.

Information Update: Restaurants and bars will be closing starting tomorrow.

Many here know I am on several regional and national school advisory boards and have been meeting almost daily recently. Those working the school market will learn of a major announcement on Tuesday. While many schools are currently closing for a couple to several weeks over an around Spring Break, the CDC is suggesting longer closures of 8 - 20 weeks to have the desired, greater impact needed.

I have been getting many requests for (entertainment business) coaching/consulting during this difficult period. I am not planning on taking on any more students at this time. Many are asking for a temporary 90-day coaching as I did back in 2016. I will monitor this and if there is enough interest will likely post any related information in the Coaching thread here in Tricky Business.

Those asking about my own business, I am currently on my annual Spring Tour. I have had one gig cancel for next Friday (2 shows). I have two other tours that we produce that have been suspended (5 remaining shows) with full pay to everyone as part of them. These will likely be rescheduled later this Summer if possible. That�s all as of today.

On the other hand, bookings are still coming in and while not 100% as strong as normal I�d say still coming in at about 80% capacity, with booking still every day through Saturday of this week. Many are asking about �what-ifs� regarding the events and contracts which is of course to be expected.

I will post more updates as received. Stay strong!
Message: Posted by: imgic (Mar 26, 2020 05:17PM)
Washington state just announced closing of all restaurants, bars, and entertainment venues. Restaurants may offer carry-out and delivery, but no seated service. Gatherings larger than 50 people are forbidden.

Have heard other states announcing similar restrictions
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 26, 2020 05:18PM)
Hoboken has a 10PM curfew. I guess this is because the virus is strong at night?

Some of this stuff seems very over the top to me. But since I am not an infectious disease expert all I can do is wait.
Message: Posted by: Gordon the discombobulator (Mar 26, 2020 05:20PM)
[quote]On Mar 6, 2020, Vandecarr wrote:
People are over reacting so badly.

There are currently 331,000,000 people in the United States

Also in the United States there are possibly 250 with the corona virus

And finally 14 people have died in the United States from the coronavirus... 14 out of 331,000,000 [/quote]

They had similar small numbers in Italy. Each infected person can infect 2 or 3 more even before they show any symptoms.
That is why it is important for everyone to observe hand hygiene. Catch any sneezes and bin them then wash your hands.
Message: Posted by: AJ MAJIC (Mar 26, 2020 05:21PM)
[quote]On Mar 16, 2020, imgic wrote:
Washington state just announced closing of all restaurants, bars, and entertainment venues. Restaurants may offer carry-out and delivery, but no seated service. Gatherings larger than 50 people are forbidden.

Have heard other states announcing similar restrictions [/quote]

Yeah, and there goes our yearly Portland Magic Jam ....pooof
Message: Posted by: corpmagi (Mar 26, 2020 05:22PM)
Add NY to the list...https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 26, 2020 05:23PM)
This all has a strange panic feel to it. 69 have died here as of this post. 6,500 or so world wide.

I am not an infectious disease expert by ANY means and have NO CLUE obviously how this stuff works. It just seems like a lot of reaction to me. A poor job is being done to help dumb people like me understand.
Message: Posted by: imgic (Mar 26, 2020 05:25PM)
From my limited understanding, there's three concerns driving the lockdowns.
1. While overall mortality rate isn't as high as something as Ebola, it does have a significantly higher mortality rate than the flu. And there's higher mortality rates in certain demographics, such as elderly.
2. People can be infected, an contagious, for up to 5 days before exhibiting symptoms. Social distancing will help mitigate that aspect.
3. While 80% of people with COVID-19 recover without medical intervention: but those that do need help can overwhelm medical facilities. Hospitals have limited Protective Gear and ventilators needed. Also COVID patient must be in isolation rooms, which are limited. And when in isolation, it increases caregiver workload (take extra time for doctors and nurses to put gear on, off, and clean up). Best analogy I've heard for this is "Remember when everyone ran to the grocery store at once to stock up instead of shopping for regular amounts at staggered intervals? Now imagine that happening at your hospitals!"

These drastic actions will hopefully shorten all of this....
Message: Posted by: thomasR (Mar 26, 2020 05:28PM)
[quote]On Mar 16, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
This all has a strange panic feel to it. 69 have died here as of this post. 6,500 or so world wide.

I am not an infectious disease expert by ANY means and have NO CLUE obviously how this stuff works. It just seems like a lot of reaction to me. A poor job is being done to help dumb people like me understand. [/quote]

I agree. Starbucks has taken all chairs away... you can�t sit in a Starbucks! (At least the one I went to today, they said it was nation wide).

All broadway shows. All Disney parks and resorts. All Vegas casinos. To shut the entire economy down seems like a scary move but like you I�m not a disease expert so I can�t say if it�s over reacting or not.
Message: Posted by: WitchDocChris (Mar 26, 2020 05:29PM)
The problem is that if these measures are successful, it will seem like they over reacted.

If they do not go far enough, it will seem like they under reacted.

And under reacting will mean a lot of deaths that could have been avoided. And, because of our healthcare system, a lot of people going bankrupt.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 27, 2020 08:07AM)
Stop and Shop has early hours for 60 plus age group.

I am under marshal law in Hoboken. 10 PN curfew. No joke.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 27, 2020 09:21AM)
Https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/treasury-and-irs-to-delay-tax-payment-deadline/2331252/

Here is a bit more help.
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (Mar 27, 2020 09:22AM)
Now they tell me...I just paid my taxes last week!
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Mar 27, 2020 09:24AM)
Every day more and more people hurting. It's beyond entertainment now. I still think it will bounce back but this all depends on how much longer this disaster will last. In the USA, everything but the kitchen sink has been thrown at the economy and none has worked. The financials of this is and will be much worse then the health issues. A long recovery vs a medium one? That is the million dollar question.

I was issued a N95 mask today. One per person only. I was not born at the time but this reminds me of the old post WW II commercials seen on U tube. Duck and cover except this is an unseen enemy. Almost a creepy blackout.

As of this post, only 152000 have been tested out of 327 million in America. Its the uncertainty driving all this. Nevada now in lockdown.


Decomposing Economy
Message: Posted by: John Martin (Mar 27, 2020 09:25AM)
0.000019 % of the US infected!!
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 27, 2020 09:26AM)
[quote]On Mar 18, 2020, John Martin wrote:
0.000019 % of the US infected!! [/quote]

AHHHHHH NOOOOOOO!

Joking aside it seems like an overreaction. But I'm certainly not qualified to make that a statement of fact.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 27, 2020 09:28AM)
My thought is that it is going tti start to level off in the next few days. Just grin what I've heard from different industries.

I could be WAY off on this and do not put it forth as statement of fact.
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Mar 27, 2020 09:30AM)
[quote]On Mar 18, 2020, Decomposed wrote:
As of this post, only 152000 have been tested out of 327 million in America. Its the uncertainty driving all this. Nevada now in lockdown.

Decomposing Economy [/quote]

I think testing is important but maybe I'm missing something. The test is only good for that day. What happens if I get tested today and two days from now I get the disease. Are the testing results really telling us anything? I think maybe we should disregard how many are tested and concentrate on how many are actually infected.
Message: Posted by: TomBoleware (Mar 27, 2020 09:32AM)
[quote]On Mar 18, 2020, Dave Scribner wrote:


I think testing is important but maybe I'm missing something. The test is only good for that day. What happens if I get tested today and two days from now I get the disease. Are the testing results really telling us anything? I think maybe we should disregard how many are tested and concentrate on how many are actually infected. [/quote]


I agree Dave. Testing is only good for that day. You can walk out of there and get it on your way home.

Besides, if you are tested positive there is no cure yet. But most people can get over it on their own, just like you would if it were a cold.


For now, we need to save the tests for the old people like me. LOL

Seriously, I do feel for all those out of work, but I�m afraid it will get worse before it gets any better. It's changing each day.

Tom
Message: Posted by: Donald Dunphy (Mar 27, 2020 09:35AM)
Some might find this video helpful, in understanding what's going on.

I saw it on the PBS page on Facebook, but here is a YouTube link.

[youtube]fgBla7RepXU[/youtube]

- Donald
Message: Posted by: Brainbu$ter (Mar 27, 2020 09:37AM)
[quote]On Mar 18, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
[quote]On Mar 18, 2020, John Martin wrote:
0.000019 % of the US infected!! [/quote]

AHHHHHH NOOOOOOO!

Joking aside it seems like an overreaction. But I'm certainly not qualified to make that a statement of fact. [/quote]

Danny, early in the thread you mentioned "only 69" infected, and several times you've dismissed the number of cases as negligible.

I'd agree with you. 69 is negligible.
But that was "reported cases."
How many of the 350 million Americans have been tested?

Donald Dunphy cited this 6,495-word article https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Here is a two-sentence summary that answers your earlier question about why the world is turning upside down:

1. 69 "reported cases" means there are [b]WAY MORE than 69 infected.[/b]
2. In the countries we've seen with the virus, the infected number has [b]grown exponentially.[/b]

The numbers of cases you hear about, whatever that number is, multiply it by 100 (at least).
Once testing becomes more prevalent, the "reported cases" number will more accurately reflect reality.

I'm sure others have thought of it too, but here's my idea...
More than "the 3%" will die.
The uninfected deaths will outnumber the infected deaths because of the overburdened hospitals/nurses/doctors.

Cheers everybody and have a magical 2020! =)
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 27, 2020 09:38AM)
But the more who get it AND RECOVER with no hospital skews the projection drastically. Wouldn't you agree? The more testing will show WAY more cases and when that number comes in I think some panic will subsidie a bit. Right now it the unknown everyone is running from.

It just seems as if the logic is to stay away from hospitals because so many people are sick and die there. (Prior to this.)

And your 3% figure is way high because of what I mentioned.

For perspective 60,000,000 were infected with Swine Flu. 16,000 died in 10 months IN AMERICA for both those numbers.

It seems as if ther RO is lower for this than Swine Flu. I'm confused and nobody is clearing it up.

BUT I agree 100% with following protocols and guidelines in place! My lack of understanding does not need to be dangerous. I don't understand a 10 PM curfew, but I don't go out.

I'm NOT arguing against. In just showing some of the things they do such a poor job of explaining.

I also have no conspiracy theories.

I also enjoy the waxy everyone is suddenly an infectious disease expert.
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Mar 27, 2020 09:39AM)
China no new cases...

All bars and restaurants closed here for 7 days. Can be extended,
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 27, 2020 09:40AM)
Getting on the other side of the slope is the important part. It looks and feels bleak because it came out of nowhere.

I have heard we are a couple weeks behind China in this thing. Now we acted much quicker and had them to look to as a warning. No new cases there seems meaningful.
Message: Posted by: Brainbu$ter (Mar 27, 2020 09:41AM)
[quote]On Mar 19, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
But the more who yet it AND RECOVER with no hospital skews the projection drastically. Wouldn't you agree? The more testing will show WAY more cases and when that number comes in I think some panic will subsidie a bit. Right now it the unknown everyone is running from.[/quote]

Yes, I agree. Once everyone has it and has either recovered or died, then I think it won't be a problem anymore.
But the rate this is going, too many are gonna catch it at the same time.
When that happens (and it will happen abruptly) the hospitals won't be ready for the influx of new faces.

[quote]And your 3% figure is way high because of what I mentioned.[/quote]

Recovered people don't transmit it anymore, which is good, but the CDC probably put that in their projections.
Let's say the average lethality across all ages is 1%.
That average is distorted because nobody (fingers crossed) dies from it under age 40.
So lots more young people catch it and live. Ages 0-49 = 0% fatality

Lethality of coronavirus for age 70-80 is 12%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#Statistics

Since the virus focuses its fatality on a small age segment,
if you take the average lethality percentage of all ages, you'll end up with near 0%.

The virus kills 12% of all infected, for ages 70-80.
0% deaths ages 0-60.

If you average the lethality across all ages, that equals 1.5% lethality.

But despite that 1.5% figure, if you're 70, it's 12% lethality.

Look at the people telling us the information--the doctors, politicians, germ experts--they are mostly 70+ years old.
So this may be more scary to them and their friends.

Note: It may have been worse in Italy than it will be in USA (and in the near future, as a magician, I predict the same for Mexico for the same reason...mark my words). Because, in Italy (and in Mexico), they hug and kiss strangers as much as we (in USA) shake hands.

[quote]For perspective 60,000,000 were infected with Swine Flu. 16,000 died in 10 months IN AMERICA for both those numbers.

It seems as if ther RO is lower for this than Swine Flu. I'm confused and nobody is clearing it up.[/quote]

Well, as a magician, let me tell you about the Swine Flu.
I don't know anything about it.
Maybe it's because Swine Flu kills instantly, or they don't need ventilators, so less hospital burden.
Or maybe because 16,000 across the USA spread out over 10 months was tolerable,
and they project this bug has more potential (for disruption).

[quote]BUT I agree 100% with following protocols and guidelines in place! My lack of understanding does not need to be dangerous. I don't understand a 10 PM curfew, but I don't go out.[/quote]

As a magician, my understanding of the curfew is that only young people go out after 10 p.m.
Young people plus infectious disease is a nasty combination.

Young people tend to:

feel invincible
be more reckless
more mobile
adventurous
less responsible
they play spin the bottle
god knows what these days

In short, someone out after 10 p.m. is likely a young person going out to meet 10 other young people.

You started with one carrier at 11 p.m., next morning you've got 10 carriers.
Next night, same thing. But now start with 10 carriers, next morning 100 carriers.
Message: Posted by: Donald Dunphy (Mar 27, 2020 09:42AM)
It's my understanding that they closed schools in China about 6 to 7 weeks ago. So, we aren't really 2 weeks behind them.

- Donald
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 27, 2020 09:43AM)
[quote]On Mar 19, 2020, Donald Dunphy wrote:
It's my understanding that they closed schools in China about 6 to 7 weeks ago. So, we aren't really 2 weeks behind them.

- Donald [/quote]

We are reacting differently. That is the point.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 27, 2020 09:44AM)
[quote]On Mar 19, 2020, Brainbu$ter wrote:
[quote]On Mar 19, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
But the more who yet it AND RECOVER with no hospital skews the projection drastically. Wouldn't you agree? The more testing will show WAY more cases and when that number comes in I think some panic will subsidie a bit. Right now it the unknown everyone is running from.[/quote]

Yes, I agree. Once everyone has it and has either recovered or died, then I think it won't be a problem anymore.
But the rate this is going, too many are gonna catch it at the same time.
When that happens (and it will happen abruptly) the hospitals won't be ready for the influx of new faces.

[quote]And your 3% figure is way high because of what I mentioned.[/quote]

Recovered people don't transmit it anymore, which is good, but the CDC probably put that in their projections.
Let's say the average lethality across all ages is 1%.
That average is distorted because nobody (fingers crossed) dies from it under age 40.
So lots more young people catch it and live. Ages 0-49 = 0% fatality

Lethality of coronavirus for age 70-80 is 12%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#Statistics

Since the virus focuses its fatality on a small age segment,
if you take the average lethality percentage of all ages, you'll end up with near 0%.

The virus kills 12% of all infected, for ages 70-80.
0% deaths ages 0-60.

If you average the lethality across all ages, that equals 1.5% lethality.

But despite that 1.5% figure, if you're 70, it's 12% lethality.

Look at the people telling us the information--the doctors, politicians, germ experts--they are mostly 70+ years old.
So this may be more scary to them and their friends.

Note: It may have been worse in Italy than it will be in USA (and in the near future, as a magician, I predict the same for Mexico for the same reason...mark my words). Because, in Italy (and in Mexico), they hug and kiss strangers as much as we (in USA) shake hands.

[quote]For perspective 60,000,000 were infected with Swine Flu. 16,000 died in 10 months IN AMERICA for both those numbers.

It seems as if ther RO is lower for this than Swine Flu. I'm confused and nobody is clearing it up.[/quote]

Well, as a magician, let me tell you about the Swine Flu.
I don't know anything about it.
Maybe it's because Swine Flu kills instantly, or they don't need ventilators, so less hospital burden.
Or maybe because 16,000 across the USA spread out over 10 months was tolerable,
and they project this bug has more potential (for disruption).

[quote]BUT I agree 100% with following protocols and guidelines in place! My lack of understanding does not need to be dangerous. I don't understand a 10 PM curfew, but I don't go out.[/quote]

As a magician, my understanding of the curfew is that only young people go out after 10 p.m.
Young people plus infectious disease is a nasty combination.

Young people tend to:

feel invincible
be more reckless
more mobile
adventurous
less responsible
they play spin the bottle
god knows what these days

In short, someone out after 10 p.m. is likely a young person going out to meet 10 other young people.

You started with one carrier at 11 p.m., next morning you've got 10 carriers.
Next night, same thing. But now start with 10 carriers, next morning 100 carriers. [/quote]

Not everyone who gets it NEEDS a hospital to recover. That is the reality important number here. The people getting it are more likely to die with underlying ailments from ANYTHING.

None of what you pose counters anything I've said sorry. And the idea that everyone will get it is ridiculous. You can't assume across the board that it is lethal or even noticeable to everyone the same way.
Message: Posted by: Brainbu$ter (Mar 27, 2020 09:50AM)
[quote]On Mar 18, 2020, Donald Dunphy wrote:
Some might find this video helpful, in understanding what's going on.

I saw it on the PBS page on Facebook, but here is a YouTube link.

[youtube]fgBla7RepXU[/youtube]

- Donald [/quote]

Thanks for that video! I learned a lot.

Here is a similar video from a channel called "In a Nutshell"
(it makes cartoons to explain stuff clearly to people like me).

Quote from the video:
"To do it properly, wash your hands as if you've just cut up some jalepenos and want to put in your contacts next."

[youtube]BtN-goy9VOY[/youtube]
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 27, 2020 09:52AM)
I am just amazed by how many people think hand washing is a new concept.

I'm much more worried for society because of THAT than this virus.
Message: Posted by: Brainbu$ter (Mar 27, 2020 09:53AM)
[quote]On Mar 19, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
I am just amazed by how many people think hand washing is a new concept.

I'm much more worried for society because of THAT than this virus. [/quote]

Well, worry no more, because now everyone's probably washing their hands.

Since more are washing their hands now (and washing them more thoroughly),
maybe we'll see a reduction in other illnesses as well.
Message: Posted by: Blaze Magic (Mar 27, 2020 09:57AM)
So far the coronavirus has been playing out pretty close to how I feared it would, and just some things which I think people should take into account:
1. At a 1% death rate, it could easily kill around 2 million Americans. That 1% assumes proper medical treatment though, and the hospitals could fill up very fast, so 7% could easily become the new figure if it isn�t contained.
2. While it certainly has a bigger effect on older people, that doesn�t mean it can�t also have a big impact on younger people. I see a 14 year old died of it, but death rates aside, so who live often end up with permanent lung scarring for the rest of their lives.
3. If you already have a medical issue like asthma, your chances of dying (and being denied treatment at all if the hospitals are too over run) so way up.

I know there have been a lot of scares in the past like sars which ended up vanishing, but a lot of the reason it vanished is it was taken seriously to begin with. Almost every world leader has not taken the coronavirus seriously until very recently, and a lot of people are going to suffer because of it.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 27, 2020 09:58AM)
Wow just wrong.

First off your 2 million figure ASSUMES 100% infection in the first place. A ridicules assumption. Also it is killing a very specific demographic. NOT across ther board.

We have no idea how many get it and recover without going to a hospital.

You really are scared and that is because you don't understand and are letting that lack of understanding scare you.

So nobody should take the things you mention into account. They spread panic and this is not what is needed.
Message: Posted by: Blaze Magic (Mar 27, 2020 10:00AM)
I said 2 million if it wasn�t contained, which assumes roughly a 60% infection rate of the US with a 1% death rate.
As it is, measures are being taken to contain it, otherwise realistically 80% if the population would be more realistic, and at least a 5% death rate as very few people could get medical treatment, which would bring us to over 13 million deaths. As it is, it is likely to only kill thousands of all goes well, but there is a reason the Spanish Flu killed more people than World War 1
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 27, 2020 10:04AM)
It is fear mongering and just not helpful.

We HAVE taken measures, it is NOT 1918 and a HUGE percentage who are infected recover.

Spreading fear is not helpful.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 27, 2020 10:05AM)
Again simply concentrating on the bad and overlooking what is actually happening is not good it is fear mongering. Period.

You are an infectious disease expert? If not then really your Monday morning quarterback version of when things should and should not be done is as bad as mine is. We can't deal in alternate realities, we can only deal with the world as it is. The world is it is quite honestly is difficult enough for me.

It doesn't matter how many would recover from pneumonia untreated. How many would recover from the common cold untreated? How many would recover from an ingrown toenail untreated? Who cares? The main point is your numbers are just skewed to show something bad.

See there is no "my version" of events. There is only the version of events playing out in front of us right now. THAT is the "version of events" that I prefer to deal with. Not some made up scenario that I put together out of fear.

Again please state your credentials as an expert in infectious disease and I will take that into consideration. Until then it is fear based opinion and less than helpful. The PANIC is worse than the disease.
Message: Posted by: Blaze Magic (Mar 27, 2020 10:07AM)
I have said twice now that measures have been taken. I personally think they should have been taken far sooner and most countries have been doing a terrible job overall, but I have no argument against the fact they have been taken.

What percentage are going to recover from pneumonia when they don't have access to treatment?
In your version of events, what do you believe the death rate would be if everyone just treated it like the flu? (which already has a pretty sizeable death rate itself).

Edit: Actually I don't think I said measures had been taken in my very first post. I thought that was obvious though, at least for people in Western countries.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 27, 2020 10:08AM)
The number that nobody knows, and it is probably THE most important number, is how many recover WITHOUT treatment or even knowing they had it in the first place? In other words exhibit MILD symptoms and simply don't know they have it at all. The HIGHER this number is, the BETTER it is for the world. It means "heard immunity" takes hold pretty quickly. This is the number that matters a lot to this. Can you see that? It changes the "death rate" you are so scared of. If 90,000,000 people get it, and 3,000 die that is a much different "death rate" (Scary term huh?) than if 100,000 people get it and 3,000 die. That is how numbers work. You don't get to fill in all your own to make the worst case scenario and sell the fear. (Oh wait that IS what happens.)

What would happen if just the flu hit Africa? Or if smallpox or common cold even? It would be devastating. So your point, while valid, is meaningless.

Being cautious is wonderful and needs to be done. Actions need to be taken. Drastic in some cases it seems but they know better than I. BUT FEAR is just not the way to approach this.
Message: Posted by: Blaze Magic (Mar 27, 2020 10:10AM)
Ignoring the incredibly tragedy that is likely to befall those African countries and sticking just with America:
1. Just how many people do you think the US is currently capable of treating for pneumonia currently?
2. Why will things be different in American in a few weeks than they are in Italy right now? I know America has a number of advantages, but they also have some very big disadvantages.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 27, 2020 10:11AM)
My lord not EVERY case needs a pneumonia treatment. You just ignore my points to put forth fear. Is this the reason you joined the Magic Caf�?

Italy did not take the measures the US did when it was at this level now did they?

Start a corona virus fear or treatment thread if you want to continue. None of this is helpful.
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (Mar 27, 2020 10:12AM)
Yeah, now we're getting into opinions, theories, and personal fears, yet nothing about how this is affecting your business or the cancellations of bookings due to current circumstances. Even in the proper context of this thread, spreading fear isn't really beneficial. How is this helping anyone?
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 27, 2020 10:14AM)
All I know for certain is America can save the world by sitting in front of the TV doing nothing. I hope we don't screw it up.

I have been training for this MY WHOLE LIFE!
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 27, 2020 10:21AM)
[quote]On Mar 23, 2020, John Martin wrote:
[quote]On Mar 21, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
We are not in Italy or Africa. The numbers you quoted were for America. So please don't change the subject.

The number that nobody knows, and it is probably THE most important number, is how many recover WITHOUT treatment or even knowing they had it in the first place? In other words exhibit MILD symptoms and simply don't know they have it at all. The HIGHER this number is, the BETTER it is for the world. It means "heard immunity" takes hold pretty quickly. This is the number that matters a lot to this. Can you see that? It changes the "death rate" you are so scared of. If 90,000,000 people get it, and 3,000 die that is a much different "death rate" (Scary term huh?) than if 100,000 people get it and 3,000 die. That is how numbers work. You don't get to fill in all your own to make the worst case scenario and sell the fear. (Oh wait that IS what happens.)


What would happen if just the flu hit Africa? Or if smallpox or common cold even? It would be devastating. So your point, while valid, is meaningless.

Being cautious is wonderful and needs to be done. Actions need to be taken. Drastic in some cases it seems but they know better than I. BUT FEAR is just not the way to approach this. [/quote]

Thank you Danny for taking a very logical and balanced approach to all of this. Fear, paranoia and a huge amount of misinformed expertise seems to be what most people want to spread.

John [/quote]

Yes a lot of fear, a lot of misinformed expertise masquerading as fact and all fueled by the internet.

To be fair all I posted was opinion. The SKY IS FALLING crowd could be right, we will see. If we come back here and they were right I will gladly admit just how wrong I was. I wonder if they will do the same thing?

I also find it interesting how everyone has been a foreign affairs expert, a constitutional scholar and expert, health care experts, economics experts, trial law experts, criminal law experts, qualifications to be President experts, states rights experts, and on and on. In reality they just are re posting opinions of those they agree with and trying to disguise it as informed debate. They let others form and distill their opinions based on a political bias that they share with an author, or don't share with an opponent.

This is sadly what passes for information in the "information age".
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Mar 27, 2020 10:23AM)
It appears only two more weeks of lockdown in USA. Watched news conference few hours ago. Then hopefully business will open back up starting a recovery.

Danny you and other older folks probably will be advised to stay at home, I don't know for sure. Like you said, regular flu kills more, I agree. Doctors are the ones saying this is more contagious and more deadly.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 27, 2020 10:23AM)
Yea I'm 70.
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Mar 27, 2020 10:24AM)
You sure are a young 70 then Danny. Remind me of Richard Osterlind. Only as old as you feel. Hey Im over 50 so I am a senior also. :sun:

PS: Today they said 99 percent of the deaths from Covid are people over 50. A couple in AZ drank fish tank cleaner after hearing a similar drug (different spelling) for malaria was being taken for treatment. The male died and female is in critical condition.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 27, 2020 10:25AM)
They have SAID THAT ALL ALONG. It has always been older people who are immuno compromised. And it is generally the other symptoms that cause death.

Also a HUGE percentage recover.

And I'm 52. It's not the years, it's the mileage. But the same as being as young as you feel, it is with the depressive outlook you bring here.

Watching TV is doing you no favors.
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (Mar 27, 2020 10:30AM)
We are seeing great examples of reacting vs. responding.
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (Mar 27, 2020 10:38AM)
Https://youtu.be/OxOJ7hh3H-I
Message: Posted by: Gerry Walkowski (Mar 28, 2020 05:05AM)
Mindpro,

That should be the YouTube clip of the year!

Great stuff and thanks for sharing.

Gerry
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (Mar 28, 2020 05:46PM)
Thanks Gerry! I felt a bit of comedy, levity and fun could be welcome.
Message: Posted by: DavidMor (Mar 30, 2020 04:03AM)
Let's stick to the facts. The federal government's policies on "social distancing" are not going to end by Easter. Trump extended them until end of April - and then he will reassess.
Italy has one of the best healthcare systems in the world, yet has recorded almost 11,000 deaths so far. Spain likewise has a modern healthcare system, but has well over six thousand deaths, so far. New York's number of case is doubling about every three days. It is not panicking to do the math, and realize that the United States will face hundreds of thousands of deaths - maybe millions. Trump, who is constantly optimistic, says that keeping deaths down to 100,000 will mean that everyone did a great job.
If you perform in a large group, then you are likely facilitating the spread of the disease. You might gather together a group of children who remain asymptomatic, but the kids may be spreading the virus to their grandparents, where the mortality rate is much higher. While China was denying the seriousness, its cases shot through the roof. Once China put in draconian shutdown measures, the disease stopped spreading. Japan did the same. At some point, we must take our ethical and moral obligations seriously and tell the booking part NOT to hold the event.
Message: Posted by: Blaze Magic (Mar 30, 2020 07:21AM)
Hopefully things will be a little better in the US than Italy, despite things being handled so badly.
The real issue with the virus, is while it has a 1% or so death rate, that assumes access to proper medical care, and around 20% of people require oxygen or a ventilator.
Fortunately there are many people in the world who have been taking this virus very, very seriously, and there have been huge advancements on ventilators in the last month alone, such as 3D printable parts which allows a single ventilator to be used for four people at once.

There are still going to be overrun hospital and far too many deaths. The saddest part is at each step, the world could have already gotten rid of coronavirus (or very close to it), but there are always people who wont take issues like this seriously, and others die because of it.
Fortunately it doesnt evolve quickly, so if they can make a working vaccine, it should work on every strain, plus herd immunity should start to come into play for most of the world within maybe 6 months based on the current growth.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 30, 2020 09:35AM)
[quote]On Mar 30, 2020, DavidMor wrote:
Let's stick to the facts. The federal government's policies on "social distancing" are not going to end by Easter. Trump extended them until end of April - and then he will reassess.
Italy has one of the best healthcare systems in the world, yet has recorded almost 11,000 deaths so far. Spain likewise has a modern healthcare system, but has well over six thousand deaths, so far. New York's number of case is doubling about every three days. It is not panicking to do the math, and realize that the United States will face hundreds of thousands of deaths - maybe millions. Trump, who is constantly optimistic, says that keeping deaths down to 100,000 will mean that everyone did a great job.
If you perform in a large group, then you are likely facilitating the spread of the disease. You might gather together a group of children who remain asymptomatic, but the kids may be spreading the virus to their grandparents, where the mortality rate is much higher. While China was denying the seriousness, its cases shot through the roof. Once China put in draconian shutdown measures, the disease stopped spreading. Japan did the same. At some point, we must take our ethical and moral obligations seriously and tell the booking part NOT to hold the event. [/quote]

I'm sorry but some of your facts are opinions.

By the way guys speaking if math do you find it odd that there are more cases now that they are testing for it? SERIOUSLY? Of course they find more! Death rate is well under 1%. Plus they have no way to determine T value. (I don't know infectious disease but numbers I'm not bad with.) (Also if you don't know what that is don't argue this point please.)

Also many of the people who have died would have died from regular flu.

It has been the underlying health issue that killed them.

Also if you are a math fan link at the number of people who died in Italy last years vs this year. They are right on track! No huge spikes! Hmm.

Just some actual facts.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 30, 2020 12:36PM)
The problem is so many people use the logic pattern of "God is love, love is blind, Ray Charles is blind SO Ray Charles is God."

There is so much about this we can't even know yet.

I would encourage everyone to read this.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/607495/

It might help you panic less.
Message: Posted by: Blaze Magic (Mar 30, 2020 01:18PM)
While panic is generally never a good idea, if we assume the corona virus is exactly as bad as the flu ), that is awful (and most evidence suggests it is far worse. Plus I cannot see the Chinese Government who happily farms the organs of their own citizens closing down their economy because a few people are dying of a bad flu).

The flu can easily kill half a million people per year annually. If we add a second corona-flu to the mix, there will be people who miss the old flu and get the corona virus instead. And there will be even more who get both, and while they may have been fine with one, both may mean they need hospital treatment (or maybe one means they need hospital treatment, and both means they die even if they get it).

Then we have to consider that most hospitals already work close to capacity under normal circumstances. The amount of flu patients would increase a lot, which means either we need to make a lot of changes to our hospital systems around the world, or a lot of people won't be able to get treatment.

Once again the solution isn't to panic, but to take the situation seriously and do whatever we can to help, whether that is making designs for 3D printed ventilators, or washing our hands and staying at home.
Hopefully more people will learn basic hygiene as a result of all this and in the years following there will be less flu going around as well.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 30, 2020 02:12PM)
Again you're making assumptions. Nothing more.

Generally hospitals run at a 65 or 66 percent capacity.

Again you're just putting out hyperbole. Yes response is necessary. Over reacting doesn't help as much as hurt.
Message: Posted by: Blaze Magic (Mar 30, 2020 06:53PM)
Which assumptions?
Do you have any links for hospitals being at 65% to 66% capacity during the average flu season? The number I have heard are a lot higher, but obviously it could vary greatly from hospital to hospital?
Message: Posted by: imgic (Mar 30, 2020 08:28PM)
I work for a hospital group in Seattle. We normally run at about 80-90% capacity. That being defined by number of beds. When defining by staffing, we perhaps run at 100% or over. Skilled caregivers are in short supply, even at normal times.

Currently we're at 50-60% capacity. No elective procedures are allowed. Only emergency or urgent (things that require action in 4 hours or less) patients are being admitted. We're decreasing census to prepare for the surge expected within the next week or two.


Stay home, be safe.
Message: Posted by: Acecardician (Mar 30, 2020 09:10PM)
If you have not seen it yet, here is some great info for self employed and small businesses. Also check out the small business loans. If loans are used to pay employees, rents, etc., they will be forgiven when the first note is due.

"Are gig workers, freelancers and independent contractors covered?

Yes, self-employed people are newly eligible for unemployment benefits.

Benefit amounts will be calculated based on previous income, using a formula from the Disaster Unemployment Assistance program, according to a congressional aide.

Self-employed workers will also be eligible for the additional $600 weekly benefit provided by the federal government."

Here is the full article, pass it on.


https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-stimulus-package-questions-answers.html


Don't miss the info on the $1200 payment to taxpayers.

Most Mortgage companies will let you skip 3 months and add it to the back end. You just have to ask.

Let everyone know!

ACE :dance:
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Mar 31, 2020 05:05AM)
I hear they are thinking about more stimulus to come.
Message: Posted by: Frosty (Mar 31, 2020 10:51AM)
Welp boys and girls.. I've been reading this thread and gotta say I feel very different about this.. its gonna get way uglier before it gets better especially if many folks don't take this serious and don't keep social distance and take precautions..

Too many will die in the coming weeks and even after it reaches its peak it'll still take time before it all goes back to normal..

I ain't scared at all of this virus but do care for what's coming to many if we don't take this serious and fight it..

Oh and Magic will still live after it's all over as it always does but will you or your loved ones still be alive to see it? I know the majority will survive even if you get it but many won't and they might be your friends or loved ones..

Also because of all this I feel its gonna take many months before magic performances goes back to normal as folks might still be shaken and be avoiding gatherings and travel etc..

And I ain't fear mongering just trying to be real so others take it more seriously and prevent this from spreading..

It's not the end of the world and the sky is not falling.. for the sun will still come up tomorrow... and the next.. and so on. Life will go on after it's all over but here's a video for yall to watch that might open your eyes a little more as to what is really coming if we don't prevent it..

https://youtu.be/DSJzPZCEW4I
Message: Posted by: John Martin (Mar 31, 2020 10:52AM)
You're linking to a doctor who introduces himself as "I'm Dr.Vuong a world FAMOUS bariatric surgeon" and surrounds himself with all his diplomas. 😂😂😂😂
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 31, 2020 10:53AM)
Like I have been trying to say, life will return to normal. Things happen. Life goes on. The panic and doom and gloom Glum stuff is just self indulgent. It serves no real business purpose. It actually hurts badly.

It is easy to get caught up in the "now" part of any situation. Believe it or not you can be too caught up in the "now" and be TOO positive about things. I know guys who were hypnotists back in the 90's that were riding the gravy train with biscuit wheels and figured it would never end. They spent money like they would never stop making it. Then when comedy clubs dried up essentially and the amount of work was cut WAY back on them they just kept spending like they were still making it. CRAZY! But guys, and I mean LOTS of guys did it.

My point is that being realistic is just a better business position to take in general.

As for any worry about if close up magic or live entertainment will be affected I will say after the Spanish Flu, which killed FAR more people close up magic flourished as did Vaudeville. 675,000 died in the United States alone. World wide about 1/3 of the population became infected, and 50 million died as a sort of low end estimate.

The point of those numbers is that it was right at that time that a place called Schulien's was starting to THRIVE in Chicago. Close-Up magic was in the infancy stage! Vaudeville FLOURISHED until the 1930's. AFTER this absolutely horrific epidemic or pandemic or whatever you want to call it. Not years after but RIGHT after.

Live entertainment will end up being just fine in the long run. Yea there are blips and peaks and valleys but in the long run it will always flourish. This is provided you have something that they want to see.
Message: Posted by: Frosty (Mar 31, 2020 10:55AM)
If folks are not gathering in groups or auditoriums, fairs or cruise ships or restaurants.. how can you have an audience as a performer? Even if you work tourist locations as a busker.. I wish you luck with building a tip on the streets! I was working fairs and festivals before all this and gotta say I'm now unemployed.. and don't know for how long..

And I predict the economy is also gonna get ugly cuz way to many are now unemployed and I'm not just talking magicians.. and I don't need to be a fortune teller to see this..

I hope I'm wrong with all this but I see many changes and challenges coming with all this but if you look a little further I also see many opportunities for those who prepare and take action after it's all over..

I feel we need to take this very seriously but not panic cuz things will be OK in the end..
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 31, 2020 11:22AM)
Yes the sky is falling. All is going to be bad PLUS an asteroid is probably on the way.

It is this type of thinking that helps to fuel things getting worse.

I laid out what happened historically in almost this EXACT situation. Probably a much worse situation in fact. Doom and gloom is really not necessary. People not going to fairs or on cruise ships? Where do you get that from? Do you think everything will be closed forever?
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (Mar 31, 2020 11:30AM)
I expect fairs and festivals to have a great rebound from this. When economics are tight and people stay close to home these performance markets thrive.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Mar 31, 2020 12:01PM)
Don't get confused with facts.
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Apr 1, 2020 12:48AM)
Well I just got tested today for Covid 19. I am not sick but wanted this test done because of my other job. Anyway, it was very eye opening to say the least.

First off they test you for the regular flu. If that comes out negative (it did) then they go ahead with the Covid 19 test. It consists of two nasal swabs that are a non issue. I don't know why people are saying it uncomfortable because it is not. True I use too do the nail in nose years ago but they no way go even close to that far in the nostril.

Second you have to spit into a cup and the saliva has to reach a line on the cup. That is it for the test but the takeaways were unreal today. First the doctor wore no mask and we talked for a long time. Rather he talked, I listened. I asked him why they were so laid back about all this and if he was afraid of infection with Corona. He said he was not afraid. He said some doctors call him who are afraid however. More like freaking out. He further stated some of the medical profession does not get tested because if they are found to be positive, they lose their jobs. There was much more. He said since millions are not being tested, there is no way to know who is infected and who is not but he did not seem to think this is as bad as the media is saying it is. He also quoted some higher mortality figures for the regular flu for last year then I have seen before. Once again the wash your hands you have heard over and over? He said that is the key. Much more then the regular flu. I wish now I had taken notes.

He said 80 percent of those testing positive are asymptomatic or very few symptoms. He told me about Italy and why their rates are so high etc.

Well that's my nickel, I find out the results in a few days.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 1, 2020 04:31AM)
His opinion of why Italy tests so his is anecdotal. If he was a scientist with all due respect would not be taking swabs. Same with his 80% figure.

But do you notice how the mortality rate keeps being revised DOWN?

Yea more people get tested and we find more cases. Does this shock you in any way really?

He agrees with what I've been shouting but it is anecdotal.

The part of hand washing had always been the key. The fact that this seems to be news to the world I find disturbing.

Yes since millions are not tested we have no T Value. This is what I've been trying to explain. I'm glad you finally heard it.
Message: Posted by: Frosty (Apr 1, 2020 09:11AM)
[quote]On Mar 31, 2020, Mindpro wrote:
I expect fairs and festivals to have a great rebound from this. When economics are tight and people stay close to home these performance markets thrive. [/quote]

I agree!

Folks are gonna want to run outdoors after all these lockdowns but I think we're screwed most of this year and again the social distancing might still be a concern..
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (Apr 1, 2020 10:31AM)
Perhaps. Most of the government and the entertainment industry are trying desparately to salvage the summer and rest of the year.
Message: Posted by: imgic (Apr 1, 2020 03:13PM)
48 year old healthy male doctor in our Emergency Department went down earlier this week. Was put on ventilator today. Not sure how he'll do.

Neighbor who's ER nurse in nearby hospital was on Zoom last night with my wife. 17 out of 39 staff in their ER are positive or under investigation and so are not at work (None of them are losing jobs. Hospitals here are providing extra sick days for any staff that need it). Staffing shortages impacting quality of care.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 1, 2020 03:24PM)
Not many are losing jobs for getting sick from this.

Sick younger skewing people is not a good trend to see!
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Apr 2, 2020 12:41AM)
[quote]On Apr 1, 2020, imgic wrote:
48 year old healthy male doctor in our Emergency Department went down earlier this week. Was put on ventilator today. Not sure how he'll do.

Neighbor who's ER nurse in nearby hospital was on Zoom last night with my wife. 17 out of 39 staff in their ER are positive or under investigation and so are not at work (None of them are losing jobs. Hospitals here are providing extra sick days for any staff that need it). Staffing shortages impacting quality of care. [/quote]

Sorry to hear that Imgic. I hope they will all get through it. I am wondering if it depends on rate exposure like some are saying. Still many unknowns with this virus.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 2, 2020 02:05PM)
Is this actually true? For the first 3 months of this year what people died from.

Look at this web page running total and know that 21,000 have died from this virus. https://www.worldometers.info/

What does it mean? I have NO IDEA. Seasonal flu so far according to this web page is a running total of 123,264.

I don't know why the disparity exists. I guess the lack of vaccine is at issue.

I'm just adding perspective.
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Apr 2, 2020 02:08PM)
Some health care workers are contracted. They are like free lancers. They can lose jobs.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 2, 2020 02:09PM)
I doubt that will be happening without a lot of mayhem. But who knows? We live in interesting times.
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Apr 2, 2020 02:11PM)
Yes, news keeps changing depending on source and whether reliable. We should be reaching the peak of this virus. Need way more testing but doubt that will happen before the peak. IMO
Message: Posted by: Frosty (Apr 2, 2020 10:15PM)
Sad to hear we just past over 1 million Coronavirus cases as of today...
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 2, 2020 10:31PM)
While that is sad, not all of them die. Not all have to be in a hospital. The more who get it and don't end up needing medical help THE BETTER IT IS! I think they're are FAR more cases than a million. I think many get it, get over it, and we never hear about them. This is not a death sentence by any means once you have it. That number is well below 1%.

It is a math equation and about things other than a single number like how many cases or how many dead. To fixate on only things like that is what causes so much panic and misinformation.

There are about 7,750,000000 people on this planet. A million is a rounding error. It is something like 0.0128932439402% of the population.

Do you know 60,000,000 people were infected with H1N1? In the United States alone. It was something like 1.4 billion across the globe. That was in about 10 months.

Yes a million is scary when no perspective is provided.

I am in no way saying this is not serious. I'm not saying do nothing. I'm not saying anything but numbers need perspective and I wish more media outlets would provide that.

But then on the other side of the coun people may become too complacent and not follow guidelines needed to combat this.
Message: Posted by: Frosty (Apr 2, 2020 10:38PM)
On the positive side here's a cool story of a 104 year old man that recovered from covid19 and also lived through the Spanish flu..

https://globalnews.ca/news/6768961/man-turns-104-recovers-coronavirus/
Message: Posted by: Blaze Magic (Apr 3, 2020 06:45AM)
[quote]On Apr 2, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
While that is sad, not all of them die. Not all have to be in a hospital. The more who get it and don't end up needing medical help THE BETTER IT IS! I think they're are FAR more cases than a million. I think many get it, get over it, and we never hear about them. This is not a death sentence by any means once you have it. That number is well below 1%.

It is a math equation and about things other than a single number like how many cases or how many dead. To fixate on only things like that is what causes so much panic and misinformation.

There are about 7,750,000000 people on this planet. A million is a rounding error. It is something like 0.0128932439402% of the population.

Do you know 60,000,000 people were infected with H1N1? In the United States alone. It was something like 1.4 billion across the globe. That was in about 10 months.

Yes a million is scary when no perspective is provided.

I am in no way saying this is not serious. I'm not saying do nothing. I'm not saying anything but numbers need perspective and I wish more media outlets would provide that.

But then on the other side of the coun people may become too complacent and not follow guidelines needed to combat this. [/quote]


Hopefully thats the case and the death rate is well below 1%, and of course it also depends a lot on demographics (Such as Italy having an older population will have added a lot to the death rates, and the 40% rate of obesity in the US isnt going to be very helpful).

Unfortunately access to ventilators matters even more, and I see some hospitals in the US are already running out, despite doubling them: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52137160
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (Apr 3, 2020 10:38PM)
Stay in or...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rodrigo-duterte-philippines-president-coronavirus-lockdown-shoot-people-dead/?fbclid=IwAR2sA-Ze189CggB8ZzhdV22qIct6trSZsZaSPKGAjeWOrjdOi6zDva0UwhU
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 4, 2020 08:22AM)
Hmmmm
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Apr 4, 2020 02:21PM)
So odd how two people, same age, no health problems get infected. One dies quickly and the other none to mild symptoms. It is almost like there are two different strains that are affecting people two different ways. New York seems to be much more difficult cases.

We should rebound enough to save the economy to start rebounding December of this year. Some are saying 2 years but it should not be that long.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 4, 2020 03:07PM)
It won't be December.

People are different. What is so shocking about two people having different reactions? So much goes into what makes the chemical soup that is a person. Different people have different reactions to the common cold and every disease in existence. It is incredibly myopic to think people are identical simply by age and relative health.

Don't quit your day job lol.
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Apr 4, 2020 03:59PM)
Good news. President just said there will be corporate business deductions for entertainment. :dancing:

Okay let me put it this way then. Entertainers will be working no later then December. I already am receiving leads for gigs so I know meeting planners are backed up.

Rebounding does not mean back to where it was.
Message: Posted by: Ray Pierce (Apr 5, 2020 01:22AM)
One of our European tours is re-booked for August but who knows?
Message: Posted by: Ken Northridge (Apr 5, 2020 05:59AM)
I applied for the NJEDA Small Business Emergency Assistance Grant last night. I believe I could receive $1k to $5k, but probably $1k because I only have one employee. I would assume all states have this available.

Does anyone know if there is a federal grant also? The only thing I could find is a loan that's available to pay employees, utilities, etc.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 5, 2020 04:25PM)
[quote]On Mar 30, 2020, Blaze Magic wrote:
Which assumptions?
Do you have any links for hospitals being at 65% to 66% capacity during the average flu season? The number I have heard are a lot higher, but obviously it could vary greatly from hospital to hospital? [/quote]
https://www.worldometers.info/

Just some basic facts that you may or may not believe.

As for capacity here is something.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2017/089.pdf
Message: Posted by: Blaze Magic (Apr 5, 2020 05:13PM)
Its a nice site but I dont understand how its related to the discussion .
Things like smoking kills more people than coronavirus?

I find the stats on hospitals surprising, as they are very different from what I have heard from first hand experiences (including imgics).
Maybe people who work at busier hospitals are more likely to talk about their experiences, or perhaps the stats are misleading in some way, or there may be another explanation entirely for why they differ. Regardless, there is still the question of what the situation is specifically during flu season.

And I dont know if the hypothetical double flu situation matters when right now there are roughly 10,000 coronavirus deaths in the US and counting. And that number would be far, far higher without access to ventilators.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 5, 2020 05:28PM)
It would be far far higher without a lot of stuff. BUT why is it that nobody seems to notice that over 98% SURVIVE this and the vast majority of those don't need a ventilator?

And of those 10,000 deaths MOST and darn near all were from a secondary health concern. They probably would have died from the flu, or the next cold they caught.

The numbers I posted are important for context. Saying 10,000 people die in 3 months is meaningless without context of the world we inhabit. It is meaningless if we don't know exactly the condition of them PRIOR to the death. To just concentrate on the scary number (Which is what the media are doing for some strange reason.) is to incite panic.

To me it is the equivalent of if a guy jumps out of a window, and someone shoots him on the way down. What killed him? By and large (Not exclusively.) this virus is taking the infirm. This in no way means we should not try to stop it, it in no way means we should not take it seriously, it in no way means I disagree with social distancing and the measures taken.

I am pointing out that people die all the time in the world. Yes it is a bad thing, but we will simply never get that number down to zero. Context matters. To tout numbers of dead without the numbers who survive is disingenuous and actually not all that bright.

And the importance of this site is to show how many have died in the same time frame from the REGULAR FLU. How many die from AIDS, or traffic accidents. 3.5 million have died from a communicable disease. Why is one a PANDEMIC at 10,000 and at 124,000 it is just seasonal flu? Why can 3.5 million doe from a communicable disease and it doesn't blip the radar, and somehow 10,000 is the end of the world as we know it?

There ARE answers to these questions, it is just that they never seem to give them to us. All they want to give us is the panic. I think we deserve more.

And by the way here is a statistic you will hate about ventilators because it is not part of the narrative.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/02/826105278/ventilators-are-no-panacea-for-critically-ill-covid-19-patients From the article.

"Most coronavirus patients who end up on ventilators go on to die, according to several small studies from the U.S., China and Europe.

And many of the patients who continue to live can't be taken off the mechanical breathing machines."
Message: Posted by: Blaze Magic (Apr 5, 2020 09:27PM)
If those ventilator numbers are correct and other studies show similar results, I am surprised, and will take the results into account.

I agree most people have a secondary condition, but many still would have survived for far, far longer if they hadnt been pushed over the edge. Making stats for that would be nearly impossible, but the US having a 40% obesity rate could increase death rate in those people by a lot.

Another thing to consider, is out of the very high percentage of people who survived, how many have lung scarring they will have to live with for the rest of their lives?

Overall while I think it should be taken very seriously, its a far milder pandemic than it could have been, and I hope the World will at least learn something from all this, as something far more deadly could easily appear Im the future. Something like Ebola with the ability to spread this much would be utterly terrifying.
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Apr 8, 2020 03:38PM)
I too would love to know the long term effects of this virus verses the flu. Hopefully, that will not be just fake news. I only have heard the virus may have caused permanent lung and even heart damage.

I think everyone by now knows the regular flu kills far more. The death rate of Covid 19 is not going to be anywhere near the models. I think the next plan will be to open up the individual states with the same precautions with the warnings to the elderly and those with health conditions to stay home. At least that will put a good portion of people back to work.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 8, 2020 04:21PM)
[quote]On Apr 8, 2020, Decomposed wrote:
I too would love to know the long term effects of this virus verses the flu. Hopefully, that will not be just fake news. I only have heard the virus may have caused permanent lung and even heart damage.

I think everyone by now knows the regular flu kills far more. The death rate of Covid 19 is not going to be anywhere near the models. I think the next plan will be to open up the individual states with the same precautions with the warnings to the elderly and those with health conditions to stay home. At least that will put a good portion of people back to work. [/quote]

Going through life causes scars. We were all given a terminal disease at birth. It is called life. Just how close to a zero death rate fo people expect?

And I disagree that everyone knows the regular flu kills more. Nobody mentions that on the news.

Nobody seems to know it is not as bad as the models. They still quote ridiculous numbers they heard.

You personally seem to have come away from your Glum impression. But you seem to want to universalize your own experience. People are still misinformed and scared.
Message: Posted by: Bill Hallahan (Apr 9, 2020 01:35AM)
Dannydoyle wrote:
[quote]
And the importance of this site is to show how many have died in the same time frame from the REGULAR FLU. How many die from AIDS, or traffic accidents. 3.5 million have died from a communicable disease. Why is one a PANDEMIC at 10,000 and at 124,000 it is just seasonal flu? Why can 3.5 million doe from a communicable disease and it doesn't blip the radar, and somehow 10,000 is the end of the world as we know it?
[/quote]
This isn't like the regular flu. The danger has to do with how fast COVID-19 spreads in relation to the recovery rate and the death rate; that there is no natural immunity in the population, and unlike the previous SARS coronavirus, people who are asymptomatic (have no symptoms) can spread COVID-19.

Earlier in the topic, you wrote about how the regular flu killed 16,000 people in ten months.

COVID-19 has killed over 14,000 people in the United States in the last three weeks.

Pandemics are diseases that spread rapidly and exhaust medical resources. In Italy, doctors ran out of ventilators, and had to decide which patients would live, and which would die.

I agree there shouldn't be fear-mongering or panic, however, some people do need to be told how serious this is. Without lowering the rate that COVID-19 is spread by "social distancing," eventually hospitals here will be overloaded, if some aren't already.

A short time ago, a choir decided to ignore social distancing guidelines, and meet to practice. Several of them caught the disease and two choir members died of COVID-19. Two people dying is bad, and if the infected people continue to spread the disease, that's even worse.

----------------------------------------

I realize you probably know what's below here, but I'll write it anyway for anyone who doesn't know by now.

The danger of exponential growth can be understood by starting with the number one, and multipying it by two twenty times. After twenty times, the result will be 1,048,576. So, if the transmission rate for a disease is 2, then in 20 days over a million people will have it.

COVID-19 has a transmission rate that is estimated to be 1.35 now. In 20 days, one person with COVID-19 would infect 404 people. In 47 days, over 1.3 million people would be infected.

Social distancing is to reduce the transmission rate. If it can be reduced to below 1.0, the disease will die out. Even if it can't be made below 1.0, then it will spread out the number of people infected over a longer timespan, so there are much fewer people infected at any one time than there would be if there was no mitigation, i.e. it will "flatten the curve."
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 9, 2020 09:08AM)
Again numbers without context are meaningless.
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Apr 9, 2020 05:58PM)
They are now selling Dr Fauci bobble heads. Go figure. He has replaced and risen above any entertainer on the planet. Top ratings.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 9, 2020 06:05PM)
His ratings will come in a few years. If the numbers bear out what he is claiming. Hopefully he gets high marks!
Message: Posted by: Bill Hallahan (Apr 9, 2020 07:33PM)
Decomposed wrote:
[quote]
They are now selling Dr Fauci bobble heads. Go figure. He has replaced and risen above any entertainer on the planet. Top ratings.
[/quote]
He was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by President George Bush for his work fighting the AIDS epidemic. He helped with (almost?) every viral outbreak in the U.S. since then. His list of impressive accomplishments is humbling. It reminds me of when Tom Leher referred to Mozart's accomplishments in music and then said, "It is a sobering thought that when Mozart was my age, he had been dead for two years."

Then again, I'd rather see anyone in this topic perform magic than to go to a lecture by Dr. Fauci. I might not understand either, but at least a magic show would entertain me.
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Apr 10, 2020 02:17PM)
LOL, yeah. I switch off Corona TV a few days and when I tune back in, its the same thing all over again. Im hoping May 1st, people can go back to work at least. We have non-essential businesses closed. One head shop that sells bongs, rolling papers etc for marijuana decided they were essential. The mayor put pressure on them so they switched to take out only and have toilet paper. Crazy times.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 10, 2020 02:26PM)
I sure hope lockdown is done by the 4th of July. I mean how else can we celebrate freedom?
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 15, 2020 02:17PM)
Well, did any of you get your stimulus payments yet? I saw there were so many people trying to log in to the site, that most were getting error notices that their information didn't agree with IRS records.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 15, 2020 02:20PM)
Is $1,200 seriously considered a stimulus payment? LOL.

I mean after being thrown out of work for 8 weeks.
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (Apr 15, 2020 02:53PM)
Yeah it should be more like $1200 a month to even begin to help anyone affected by this, and for many that would only be partial relief.
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 15, 2020 02:54PM)
Well, I've been out of work since Dec 20 so every little bit helps. I am getting the extra $600 a week on top of unemployment for the next 3 months.
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (Apr 15, 2020 03:04PM)
[quote]On Apr 15, 2020, Dave Scribner wrote:
Well, I've been out of work since Dec 20 so every little bit helps. I am getting the extra $600 a week on top of unemployment for the next 3 months. [/quote]

Yeah, I agree. For many performers, $1,200 may be the equivalent to 2, 3, or 4 gigs.
Message: Posted by: drstevemagic (Apr 15, 2020 03:25PM)
Any and all thoughts welcome on how current self isolation and continuing social distancing will change the art of Close-up Magic.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 15, 2020 03:39PM)
[quote]On Apr 15, 2020, Dave Scribner wrote:
Well, I've been out of work since Dec 20 so every little bit helps. I am getting the extra $600 a week on top of unemployment for the next 3 months. [/quote]
In Nevada that isn't even an option yet. It will come retroactively.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 15, 2020 03:43PM)
[quote]On Apr 15, 2020, drstevemagic wrote:
Any and all thoughts welcome on how current self isolation and continuing social distancing will change the art of Close-up Magic. [/quote]

Not one bit.

As I've started countless times the Spanish Flu killed 675 000 Americans. A little place in Chicago called Schuliens was just getting started. The very START of close up magic was arguably at Schuliens.

They are finding out that WAY more people than originally thought have had this and are infected and just didn't know. That makes this less a problem and the PANIC AND FEAR were the problem.

As it goes along and this becomes the case live performance of ALL TYPES will return to normal.
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Apr 16, 2020 12:02AM)
Yeah look at Michigan. Big protest over strict restrictions. The string of vehicles heading towards capital look like a hurricane get out of town departure. People are getting fed up all over.

I got my Trump Lump too. Can't complain.


Close up will be normal, no virtual nonsense once this is over.
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (Apr 17, 2020 03:09PM)
It looks like restrictions are slowly getting lifted. There is a light at the end I hope.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 17, 2020 04:07PM)
Wow I wish I'd have thought that would happen.
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 17, 2020 05:51PM)
Let's just hope the light isn't a train coming with a new round of virus.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 17, 2020 07:05PM)
It will be. The fact is we have tti live with this.
Message: Posted by: John Martin (Apr 20, 2020 11:03AM)
This is an interesting perspective. The earlier 3 videos in the series are also worth viewing. I think this touches on what Danny has said earlier.
https://youtu.be/cwPqmLoZA4s
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 20, 2020 11:52AM)
If it turns out that this was no worse than seasonal flu, someone has a LOT of explaining to do don't they?

This guy has a LOT of nerve using facts and numbers and an actual equation with the complete number set to quell fear.
Message: Posted by: Blaze Magic (Apr 20, 2020 12:53PM)
While it's still hard to know what the upper limits of the death rate are, New York City gives a bit more data on the lower limits.
As of writing this, New York City has just over 10,000 confirmed deaths from Coronavirus, which with a population of 8.4 million means over 0.1% of the total population has already died.
And on top of that:
1. Unfortunately that's only the confirmed deaths from Coronavirus, so looking over the stats, it could easily be up to 0.2%.
2. We have no idea how many people have been infected, but it should be well below 100% of the population, especially considering things are in lockdown.
3. There appears to be a link between having a secondary health condition and death from Coronavirus. Obesity is included in those conditions, and New York has a rate of 22% while the national average is 40%.
4. Many of those who are currently suffering from infections haven't had time to die yet.
5. I am unaware of the cold or flu regularly causing large amounts of organ damage in those who have survived.

To even out my fear mongering, here is a more pleasant article from February letting us know the Coronavirus isn't dangerous and there is almost zero chance of catching it if you are in the US
https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/flu-bigger-threat-nyc-coronavirus-experts-say
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 20, 2020 01:00PM)
Funny but your numbers don't seem quite as well sourced as his STUDY.
Message: Posted by: Blaze Magic (Apr 20, 2020 01:08PM)
My numbers on the reported deaths, the population of New York City, or the level of obesity within New York City/the USA?
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 20, 2020 01:43PM)
You are just using random numbers. They mean nothing. Also the number of reported deaths is HIGH.

Like I said I tend to believe more scientists who do actual studies, than cherry picked numbers for the purposes of fear mongering. That is just me. Your mileage may vary.
Message: Posted by: John Martin (Apr 20, 2020 01:55PM)
How many people have died of the flu that were also Covid +. We had a woman of 82 die with Covid. She had lung terminal cancer. She refused a ventilator. This was counted as Covid death, but did she die because of the Covid or did that just hasten an already sure death in the near future? Or did it have no effect on her death and she died WITH Covid. We don't know. 7500 die each and every day in the US. That's over 50,000 death a week. Numbers are important and right now we don't have the important ones. Focusing on daily deaths do nothing to calm fears. Instead of facetiously linking to an article from February & why not post some real positive news: 331 Million people in the USA have NOT died today!!!
Message: Posted by: Blaze Magic (Apr 20, 2020 02:13PM)
[quote]On Apr 20, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
You are just using random numbers. They mean nothing. Also the number of reported deaths is HIGH.

Like I said I tend to believe more scientists who do actual studies, than cherry picked numbers for the purposes of fear mongering. That is just me. Your mileage may vary. [/quote]

Are you saying that the reported deaths of over 10,000 in New York City is likely to be incorrect, or do you accept the data, but it falls under a "random number"?
If it's the former, do you have a particular reason to believe the numbers being put out are wrong, especially when most places would like their death figures to be as low as possible?

If it's the latter and you consider over 10,000 people to be a "random number", I misjudged you.
Message: Posted by: Blaze Magic (Apr 20, 2020 02:26PM)
[quote]On Apr 20, 2020, John Martin wrote:
How many people have died of the flu that were also Covid +. We had a woman of 82 die with Covid. She had lung terminal cancer. She refused a ventilator. This was counted as Covid death, but did she die because of the Covid or did that just hasten an already sure death in the near future? Or did it have no effect on her death and she died WITH Covid. We don't know. 7500 die each and every day in the US. That's over 50,000 death a week. Numbers are important and right now we don't have the important ones. Focusing on daily deaths do nothing to calm fears. Instead of facetiously linking to an article from February & why not post some real positive news: 331 Million people in the USA have NOT died today!!! [/quote]

I'm sure there are plenty of people in the figures who were already close to death, but how higher percentage out of over 10,000?
As it is I consider it a very mild pandemic over what it could have been, and I have extremely glad as if it was something more serious there could easily be millions dead right now.

That said, I am glad 331 million people in the US are currently alive, but it is in very bad taste to celebrate it while the deaths are ongoing and there are things people can still do about it. Imagine if there was a school shooting and as the victims were being murdered, people said we should celebrate all the people who aren't being shot instead. You either need to apply it to everything or nothing.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 20, 2020 02:30PM)
[quote]On Apr 20, 2020, John Martin wrote:
How many people have died of the flu that were also Covid +. We had a woman of 82 die with Covid. She had lung terminal cancer. She refused a ventilator. This was counted as Covid death, but did she die because of the Covid or did that just hasten an already sure death in the near future? Or did it have no effect on her death and she died WITH Covid. We don't know. 7500 die each and every day in the US. That's over 50,000 death a week. Numbers are important and right now we don't have the important ones. Focusing on daily deaths do nothing to calm fears. Instead of facetiously linking to an article from February & why not post some real positive news: 331 Million people in the USA have NOT died today!!! [/quote]

BINGO. And how much federal money do hospitals get if it is a Covid-19 case? I guess there is incentive to say it is one.

The death toll is high BECAUSE of what John just stated. If a person dies from a gunshot wound, and they test positive it is a covid death. The numbers are just not making sense. Seems to me the projections from the start have been weatherman wrong and they keep getting revised down. For some reason there are those who just don't want this to happen.

Agendas will become clear.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 20, 2020 02:32PM)
[quote]On Apr 20, 2020, Blaze Magic wrote:
[quote]On Apr 20, 2020, John Martin wrote:
How many people have died of the flu that were also Covid +. We had a woman of 82 die with Covid. She had lung terminal cancer. She refused a ventilator. This was counted as Covid death, but did she die because of the Covid or did that just hasten an already sure death in the near future? Or did it have no effect on her death and she died WITH Covid. We don't know. 7500 die each and every day in the US. That's over 50,000 death a week. Numbers are important and right now we don't have the important ones. Focusing on daily deaths do nothing to calm fears. Instead of facetiously linking to an article from February & why not post some real positive news: 331 Million people in the USA have NOT died today!!! [/quote]

I'm sure there are plenty of people in the figures who were already close to death, but how higher percentage out of over 10,000?
As it is I consider it a very mild pandemic over what it could have been, and I have extremely glad as if it was something more serious there could easily be millions dead right now.

That said, I am glad 331 million people in the US are currently alive, but it is in very bad taste to celebrate it while the deaths are ongoing and there are things people can still do about it. Imagine if there was a school shooting and as the victims were being murdered, people said we should celebrate all the people who aren't being shot instead. You either need to apply it to everything or nothing. [/quote]

Yea no that is just not how life works. Because according to your theory if one person dies nobody should celebrate a birthday. If you apply it to one you have to apply it to all. How silly.
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 20, 2020 03:43PM)
So how's the stimulus payment going for everyone? Seems like a lot of people haven't received it yet, myself included. No way to contact IRS and ask. Social Security recipients are supposed to get it through that organization but no news from them either. Good thing I didn't make any plans for it yet.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 20, 2020 03:58PM)
My PPP loan looks good. I don't get a $1,200 payment because we made too much. I just hope it indeed IS forgiven like they claim.

All of this is new territory.

Heck those are more of a stimulus for Landlords aren't they?

My sister got hers in Missouri.
Message: Posted by: Ken Northridge (Apr 20, 2020 04:18PM)
[quote]On Apr 20, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
My PPP loan looks good. I don't get a $1,200 payment because we made too much. I just hope it indeed IS forgiven like they claim.

All of this is new territory.

Heck those are more of a stimulus for Landlords aren't they?

My sister got hers in Missouri. [/quote]

So, because of my stimulus check I've made more money than David Copperfield AND Danny Doyle this month! :) I know this is nothing to celebrate but I am having a glass of bourbon anyway. Remember, alcohol kills germs!

Dave, I received my stimulus check via direct deposit last week. Everyone I know has received their check as well. Sorry to hear you have not.

I've applied for a state and federal grant and have not heard a word yet.
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 20, 2020 04:34PM)
The stimulus is such a mess. If you didn't get a refund last year or the year before, the IRS doesn't have a bank account number so the IRS status tool doesn't work. I'm on an installment agreement with the IRS and they take a payment out of my bank account every month but they say they can't use that account information for the stimulus. It's like everything else with the government. Make the process as difficult as possible and then complain about how over worked they are. If you collect social security, the check is supposed to be processed through them. Instead of the tool giving actual status, it just says they can't verify the status. You can't contact the IRS to ask and you can't contact the social security administration so you're basically at the whim of the government.
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (Apr 20, 2020 04:49PM)
Yeah Dave, I have been hearing the same form many of my coaching studnets and consulting clients. They are saying there is not even a phone nuber to contect the IRS once you recieve the error messages on the website. Also no online chat or assiatance either. Seems like such a mess.
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 20, 2020 07:09PM)
There are phone numbers for the IRS but when you call, you get a recording saying because of the virus, there is no one available to talk live. Even though the IRS says they are contacting social security, the SS websites say they cannot provide info on stimulus checks, you must contact the IRS. So round and round we go. Funny the additional $600 a week for unemployment started almost right away and I haven't heard any problems with that.
Message: Posted by: John Martin (Apr 20, 2020 07:54PM)
This reply is not to boast, just to give a different perspective from another country. I do realize people are hurting and expecting help and perhaps worried it won t come fast enough. Im lucky because I work full time in a hospital. We were chosen, back in January, to be one of two Covid Centers in the province. At present, despite Quebec having, more than half the Covid cases in Canada, we are holding our own. ICU stays are a lot lower then anticipated. The Covid floors however are full. People have to understand that the number of people who test positive for Covid are NOT all hospitalized. They are tested and sent home to recover. We have recently had an upturn un cases because of infections in nursing homes and this is quite concerning. Im told the infections are brought in by employees who work at multiple institutions. The rsident themselves have been isolated for over six weeks, unable to receive family or visitors from outside.

My wife on the other hand is self employed and works as a manicurist. The provincial government closed all none essential businesses six weeks ago. Being self employed she is not entitled to unemployment as she had not had to pay in to it. Originally the provincial government was going to assist people who could not work because of being quarantined or because their business was closed etc. However the federal government stepped in with the CERB (Canada Emergency Response Benefit). Which gives weekly payments of $500 a week or $2000 per month for up to 4 months. After 4 months the program will be re-evaluated. She had to register with the Canadian Revenue Agency first to obtain an account. Once this was set up she applied for the CERB on a specific date based on her birth month. When applying they ask several questions to make sure you are eligible for the program. One is that you have to have had an income of over 5000$ the previous tax year and another is wether you cannot work because your business was closed. Once you complete this you receive a payment directly to your bank account within three days. It was really that simple and in the two application shes made, March and now for the month of April she did in fact receive the money within three days. The government has really made it that easy. These payments are of course taxable and overpayments and cheaters will be dealt with next year at tax time.

I hope the help people are waiting for and have been promised arrives in a timely fashion.

John
Message: Posted by: TomBoleware (Apr 20, 2020 07:54PM)
Dave, You would think that the Social Security people would have received the first wave of payments. But its like you said, its the government doing it.



Tom
Message: Posted by: John Martin (Apr 20, 2020 07:59PM)
[quote]On Apr 20, 2020, Blaze Magic wrote:
[quote]On Apr 20, 2020, John Martin wrote:
How many people have died of the flu that were also Covid +. We had a woman of 82 die with Covid. She had lung terminal cancer. She refused a ventilator. This was counted as Covid death, but did she die because of the Covid or did that just hasten an already sure death in the near future? Or did it have no effect on her death and she died WITH Covid. We don't know. 7500 die each and every day in the US. That's over 50,000 death a week. Numbers are important and right now we don't have the important ones. Focusing on daily deaths do nothing to calm fears. Instead of facetiously linking to an article from February & why not post some real positive news: 331 Million people in the USA have NOT died today!!! [/quote]

I'm sure there are plenty of people in the figures who were already close to death, but how higher percentage out of over 10,000?
As it is I consider it a very mild pandemic over what it could have been, and I have extremely glad as if it was something more serious there could easily be millions dead right now.

That said, I am glad 331 million people in the US are currently alive, but it is in very bad taste to celebrate it while the deaths are ongoing and there are things people can still do about it. Imagine if there was a school shooting and as the victims were being murdered, people said we should celebrate all the people who aren't being shot instead. You either need to apply it to everything or nothing. [/quote]

Then the media should highlight ALL deaths everyday for every reason and not sensationalize only those who die because of Covid. Im sorry you think celebrating life is in bad taste.
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 21, 2020 07:54AM)
[quote]On Apr 20, 2020, TomBoleware wrote:
Dave, You would think that the Social Security people would have received the first wave of payments. But its like you said, its the government doing it.



Tom [/quote]

Yeah, that's what I figured but there's no way to contact anyone to find out what the process is. It seems to be hit or miss. Originally I thought they processed payments for everyone that filed their 2019 taxes first but that doesn't seem to be the case. My sister is on social security and she got paid at the very beginning. Besides social security, I collect a monthly veterans benefit and unemployment so my bank account number is all over the place but apparently not available to the IRS. One redundancy is the IRS takes a payment out of my bank every month to pay my installment agreement with them but I read yesterday that they can't or won't use that information.
Message: Posted by: TomBoleware (Apr 21, 2020 09:23AM)
I read that the check My Payment thing is not working for social security, its just for those that filed taxes with bank information in 2018 or 2019. I havent filed this year yet, I always owe money and put it off as long as I can. :) So IRS doesnt have my direct deposit info. But like you they have information on me everywhere else, they dont take time to look. My wife got a $300 direct deposit last week and we still dont know why.

Tom
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (Apr 21, 2020 10:11AM)
[quote]On Apr 20, 2020, Dave Scribner wrote:
There are phone numbers for the IRS but when you call, you get a recording saying because of the virus, there is no one available to talk live. [/quote]

Yes, that is the same experience my people are having as well.
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 21, 2020 11:00AM)
[quote]On Apr 21, 2020, TomBoleware wrote:
I read that the check My Payment thing is not working for social security, its just for those that filed taxes with bank information in 2018 or 2019. I havent filed this year yet, I always owe money and put it off as long as I can. :) So IRS doesnt have my direct deposit info. But like you they have information on me everywhere else, they dont take time to look. My wife got a $300 direct deposit last week and we still dont know why.

Tom [/quote]

That's what I've read as well. Fortunately I'm independently wealthy so I don't have to worry about when I'll get the check. LOL
Message: Posted by: TomBoleware (Apr 21, 2020 11:32AM)
Dave,

Good, if it lasts very long I know who to hit up for a loan. LOL

Im betting it comes this week, tomorrow most likely. Bank friend told me today.

My wife just got a letter today about that deposit, it was back pay from social security. Every few years they do an audit and she didnt get the six dollar raise she was due five years ago, so they caught it up. It was nothing to do with the stimulus money.


Tom
Message: Posted by: thomasR (Apr 21, 2020 04:57PM)
Penns most recent Sunday School (from this Sunday) talks about the virus, Penn & Teller cancelling a show before Caesars told them they had to, and some of his general thoughts. I naturally dont agree with everything Penn says, but a lot of interesting talk.

Franz Hararys quarantine talks have been really good as well.
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 21, 2020 08:02PM)
For anyone interested, here's a link to a site that breaksdown exactly when you'll receive a stimulus check. The article is quite long but answers a lot of questions.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/21/heres-precisely-when-youll-get-your-stimulus-check.aspx
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 24, 2020 05:16PM)
Anyone got to the IRS site to enter their bank account information for the stimulus check? I finally got there and it asks for the gross income from my return and whether or not I got a return or owed. I sent in what I owed with my return so I neither had a return or an amount owed. Also, they made an adjustment on my gross income according to the transcript of my account so it's different that what I filed. My problem is I entered their adjusted gross income but don't know what to put in for returned or owed. Nothing seems to work.
Message: Posted by: charliecheckers (Apr 24, 2020 05:33PM)
Hey Dave- thanks for the information! If you sent money to them or had it automatically withdrawn from your bank account, then that is the figure you enter. They are simply trying to verify who you are by requesting specific information from your return. Upon seeing your post,I was able to successfully enter my bank account information for direct deposit for payment.
Message: Posted by: TomBoleware (Apr 24, 2020 05:53PM)
Same Here Dave. I won't take it. It reads, "Technical Difficulties" What happens now, they mail it?
And what happened to them using the social security deposit information? It is weird.


Tom
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (Apr 24, 2020 06:32PM)
I got word Wednesday that about a dozen or so of my student's checks were to be mailed out on the 24th (today). They should arrive by Tuesday of next week. Supposedly they were part of a huge physical batch that were going out that the banking information was incorrect or missing, so they are mailing to the last physical address on file.

One of the things we found is within the IRS the left-hand doesn't communicate with the right hand. Even 2019 or 2020 tax payents that were made electronically (meaning they have the right banking information on record) or refunds that were to be deposited in bank accounts, the info seemed not to be shared with the system that is issuing these payments/checks.

Check your mailboxes early to mid next week.
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 24, 2020 06:51PM)
[quote]On Apr 24, 2020, charliecheckers wrote:
Hey Dave- thanks for the information! If you sent money to them or had it automatically withdrawn from your bank account, then that is the figure you enter. They are simply trying to verify who you are by requesting specific information from your return. Upon seeing your post,I was able to successfully enter my bank account information for direct deposit for payment. [/quote]

Thanks Charlie, this is why it would be nice if there were a contact you could use. I couldn't get access to the web portal until they verified my information from social security. Obviously they have it verified now. When I enter my social security number, birthdate and address, it says I'm eligible and to provide my account number, gross income and amount owed. Well, by looking at my account transcripts, I see they adjusted my gross income (I guess I made a math error). I sent in what I owed according to my calculations but because of their adjustment, I owed more which they apparently took from my installment agreement payments. Now so I enter the amount I sent in, the amount they took or the total combined? Guess I'll try it again tomorrow. Worst case if I can't get it to work, I'll just wait for the check which looks like for me it will be sometime in September.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 24, 2020 06:57PM)
To be fair this is a MONUMENTAL task.
Message: Posted by: TomBoleware (Apr 24, 2020 07:03PM)
They never had trouble finding me when I owed them.LOL

Im sure it will show up one day. It is odd oh they couldn't just
deposit it like they do every month with our social security.


Tom
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 24, 2020 07:40PM)
Well believe it or not it isn't about only you or only people in your situation.

It is **** trying to get money to millions of people.
Message: Posted by: thomasR (Apr 24, 2020 08:25PM)
Im with you Dave and Tom! Its a bit of a guessing game.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 24, 2020 08:31PM)
[quote]On Apr 24, 2020, thomasR wrote:
Im with you Dave and Tom! Its a bit of a guessing game. [/quote]

Oh it is a TOTAL guessing game. The way banks prioritize companies with huge money as opposed to mom and pop stores for the PPP. Everything about this is little more than guessing games.
Message: Posted by: thomasR (Apr 24, 2020 08:56PM)
[quote]On Apr 24, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
[quote]On Apr 24, 2020, thomasR wrote:
Im with you Dave and Tom! Its a bit of a guessing game. [/quote]

Oh it is a TOTAL guessing game. The way banks prioritize companies with huge money as opposed to mom and pop stores for the PPP. Everything about this is little more than guessing games. [/quote]

Yes! Did you see how publicly traded corporations like Shake Shack got 10 million while actual small businesses were told oh sorry... fresh out!
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 24, 2020 09:22PM)
Yea and it is about to get worse.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 24, 2020 10:12PM)
Georgia is about to or has opened many businesses. The rest is not far behind.
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 25, 2020 03:07AM)
[quote]On Apr 24, 2020, TomBoleware wrote:
They never had trouble finding me when I owed them.LOL

Im sure it will show up one day. It is odd oh they couldn't just
deposit it like they do every month with our social security.


Tom [/quote]

Yeah and I thought the reason for contacting social security was to get direct deposit account numbers. Apparently not. And they know where to take my installment agreement money from every 28th of the month. There's no delay there.

Danny [quote]To be fair this is a MONUMENTAL task.[/quote] But it didn't have to be. Every American is on the IRS list for one reason or another. All they had to do was verify the income and check the social security number. That would have given them all the information needed to send the money. They have either a 2018 or 2019 tax return. There shouldn't be a reason to have to verify an amount of refund or amount do since they have that information. It may be a verification process but you already have to enter your social security number, birthdate and address on the form. That should be enough. It is the way it is so we just have to live with it.

[quote]Well believe it or not it isn't about only you or only people in your situation.
It is **** trying to get money to millions of people.[/quote]

We realize it's not only about us but they've made the process much more difficult than it needed to be, but that's the government way. I read that now the latest stimulus bill for businesses is approved, congress is already working on another package for the people. Some are proposing a $2000 payment recurring automatically until the situation is over. I doubt that will happen but even if it did, nothing is automatic with treasury and I'm sure there will be a register and verify process.

With all that said, on a bright note, after being unemployed since Dec, I'm pretty sure I've found a new job which will make the stimulus money icing on the cake whenever it comes through. Been through 2 interviews and have a final on Monday.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 25, 2020 09:06AM)
Problem? They means tested the program. Nor everyone qualifies. Worse yet it is a sliding scale so they made it MORE difficult.

These are the people who want to run our healthcare system.

I think they made it way more difficult than they needed to AND hurt those who are hurting the most already!

It is easy to sit back and just not qualify. Waiting and needing then jumpung through hoops to no avail is ridiculous.

Send the darn money. It is not enough anyhow.
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 25, 2020 12:33PM)
OK, I give up. Part of the verification process on the Get my Payment form is to enter the amount of refund or do to the IRS. I checked my transcript on the IRS.gov page and the amount do is the same as I claimed on my return. When I enter that amount, it says "sorry, the information you entered doesn't agree with their records" I'm tired of fighting this. I'll jus wait for the check.
Message: Posted by: TomBoleware (Apr 25, 2020 02:54PM)
Same here Dave. The IRS changed my amount last year and I have no idea what to enter.
We really don't have a choice now but to wait for the mailed check.

Tom
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 25, 2020 04:10PM)
Yeah they changed mine too so I tried both numbers. Neither worked so I don't know.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 25, 2020 04:37PM)
Snail mail checks won't be quick I'm afraid.
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (Apr 25, 2020 04:48PM)
I believe many will hit this upcoming week
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 25, 2020 06:33PM)
[quote]On Apr 21, 2020, Dave Scribner wrote:
For anyone interested, here's a link to a site that breaksdown exactly when you'll receive a stimulus check. The article is quite long but answers a lot of questions.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/21/heres-precisely-when-youll-get-your-stimulus-check.aspx [/quote]

This link shows exactly when the checks are expected to arrive. It's based on adjusted gross income.
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 26, 2020 08:42AM)
To compound this frustration, I have a problem with unemployment today. Because there are so many claims in New Jersey, they set up a schedule to claim benefits every week based on social security numbers. Mine comes at 8-9 Sunday morning. Today, the claim site was very slow and then a message saying they were having technical difficulties and to check later. My schedule time is over and now besides getting the "problem" message, I get one saying I've missed my time frame. That means I can't claim now until after 4. That also means everyone else all day until they fix the problem will be filing at 4. I see another jam up. Just shows there's more going on because of this virus than we realize.

Fortunately I get the extra $600 a week unemployment that is automatic and doesn't involved the unemployment web site.
Message: Posted by: thomasR (Apr 26, 2020 09:19AM)
Ive had that issue as well, the site in my state is extremely slow.
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 26, 2020 02:21PM)
Well, surprise surprise. I finally got my bank account information to accept. Looks like maybe part of the problem was my own. When I entered the gross income amount, I took it from a copy of my 2018 tax return. Today, I went through my files and found a copy of the actual form I sent in. On my original copy, I mistook an 8 for a 3. I tried one more time with the right digit and it accepted it. The site now says my payment will be deposited to my bank.

Now if they'd just get that unemployment site fixed, I'd be in good shape for awhile.
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (Apr 26, 2020 02:38PM)
Congrats Dave. One down...
Message: Posted by: TomBoleware (Apr 27, 2020 04:22PM)
Dave, I too finally got my information into the IRS site. Big money being deposited soon. LOL

Tom
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 27, 2020 05:24PM)
[quote]On Apr 27, 2020, TomBoleware wrote:
Dave, I too finally got my information into the IRS site. Big money being deposited soon. LOL

Tom [/quote]

doesn't it feel good to get over that hump? I don't know if I'd call it big money but every little bit helps.
Message: Posted by: thomasR (Apr 27, 2020 10:53PM)
Dave and Tom... this was my week as well! It looks like I'll be getting some money too.
Message: Posted by: TomBoleware (Apr 28, 2020 08:22AM)
[quote]On Apr 27, 2020, thomasR wrote:
Dave and Tom... this was my week as well! It looks like I'll be getting some money too. [/quote]

Great. Maybe they will give us some more soon.

Ive decided we can spend it better than the government can.:)

Tom
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 28, 2020 08:41AM)
I haven't seen anything about giving us poor folks any additional money. The latest stimulus bill just signed was for business and loans. I read an article that a group of people involved in stimulus packages were pushing to give everyone $2000 recurring automatically until the situation is resolved. I doubt that will ever happen but it's a nice thought.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Apr 28, 2020 09:03AM)
That would be great for now. In 3 months that inflation would cripple us for a generation.

Back to work is the only real solution.
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 28, 2020 09:30AM)
Agreed.
Message: Posted by: John Martin (Apr 29, 2020 08:06AM)
Https://youtu.be/k0Q4naYOYDw
Message: Posted by: imgic (Apr 29, 2020 09:34AM)
[quote]On Apr 29, 2020, John Martin wrote:
Https://youtu.be/k0Q4naYOYDw [/quote]

Lost me 6 minutes in when he claims less deaths than flu.

Theres going to be folks on both sides..like a court case...you can find experts to support either point of view.

Hoping the states that are re-opening show good results and we can begin moving forward.
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (Apr 30, 2020 06:55AM)
Personally I disregard all of the numbers regardless of who puts them out. Everyday the Mayor of New York has a one hour broadcast and states the latest numbers. If the number of cases yesterday was 10,000 and the number today is 10,500, or the number of deaths changes up or down, do people actually do anything different? I don't think so. I think broadcasting the numbers everyday just creates panic and I don't believe the general public really understands the true impact of the numbers.

When people other than the World Health Organization or people who actually monitor the progress of the virus start putting out numbers they have researched, those numbers are always going to support their own personal beliefs and agendas. What is the important number? Cases versus deaths, cases versus recoveries, cases versus hospitalizations? Each will show a different percentage. Do we really care how many have been tested? Sure, that number is relative to the number of cases found but it really isn't changing the day to day things that people do. Maybe I'm just insensitive, but I'm really tired of listening to numbers everyday. Every news story somehow gets related back to the virus.
Message: Posted by: Ken Northridge (May 1, 2020 06:02AM)
"There are three types of lies: Lies, ***ed lies and statistics."

The numbers are meaningless to me. I cannot seem to grasp them. All I know is I'm tired of living in a bubble. I'll obey the law, wear my mask, keep my distance, but I'm not going to let a bunch of numbers affect my happiness anymore.

Since this is the Tricky Business section I would like to report I am launching a new business today. Jersey Shore Balloon Decor will specialize in balloon bouquets for your yard to celebrate special occasions. Pay by credit card, I deliver the product to their lawn. NO CONTACT!

Wish me luck!

www.jerseyshoreballoondecor.com

BTW I have applied for four loan/grant programs. I have not heard a word from three of them. The forth one was a PPP through my Square up account. It was approved in 3 days and the money has been deposited in my account! A word to the wise.
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (May 1, 2020 06:08AM)
Good luck with the new business Ken, and glad you got at least one of the loans.
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (May 1, 2020 06:29AM)
Congratulation and best wishes Ken. Thanks for the update. How has the response been so far?

This sounds like it would have an ideal angle for you to gain some decent press and media coverage. It could be a great H.I. feature story that I could see the media being all over. Nothing like getting thousands of dollars in free promotional marketing for the new venture.

Your site also leaves the door wide open for you to return to magic when the time is right and for decent cross-promotion.

Again, the best of luck!
Message: Posted by: Ken Northridge (May 1, 2020 05:55PM)
Thanks Dave, Thanks Mindpro,

Minpro,

The press and media coverage is a great idea, and I can't believe it never crossed my mind. I've been so busy the past week trying to get this business up and running.

The response--I just got back from delivering our first order. It was a social distance birthday party for a 10 year old girl. There were about 8 cars there honking their horns and then say Happy Birthday. I got a $10 tip and promptly bought a bottle of champagne with it.

Thanks also for sharing your ideas.
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (May 2, 2020 06:53AM)
I guess there is light at the end of the tunnel. I've been unemployed since January and because of the stimulus package, in addition to unemployment have been collecting the extra $600 a week. This week I accepted a job offer and start work on Tuesday at more than I was making at my previous job. Additionally, I see on the IRS web site that my direct deposit of stimulus money will happen on May 6th. For some reason, my wife thinks half of the stimulus money is hers but that's a different story. LOL
Message: Posted by: TomBoleware (May 2, 2020 07:38AM)
Dave, My wife thinks the same thing. And I bet they get it too. LOL

Congrats on the new Job.

Tom
Message: Posted by: The great Gumbini (May 5, 2020 10:09PM)
Well my brother-in-law checked his status and it was sent on the 24th and he got his on the 27th of April. Mine says my wife and I had ours sent out on the 1st of May and we still have not received it yet.I was wondering if anyone else is in the same boat?

Good magic to all,


Eric
Message: Posted by: The great Gumbini (May 5, 2020 10:15PM)
My wife's uncle said his was due to be sent on May 1st also and has not received his and he lives in the same zip code as we do.

Good magic to,


Eric
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (May 5, 2020 10:18PM)
More good news, a brother Caf member just booked a show on May 17th. West coast. Disney in China opening up. Our restaurants and some theaters opened last week here with distancing.
Message: Posted by: thomasR (May 5, 2020 10:39PM)
Yes I was tuned into the Disney shareholders meeting today myself. Its good news that the first park to close is now reopening. Lots of limits on capacity, but open none the less.

With restaurants openning up with limited seating I see people waiting outside more to get a table. Maybe some of the restaurant magicians could perform outside while people are waiting?
Message: Posted by: The great Gumbini (May 5, 2020 11:00PM)
I know it will be a while but it will be great to see Disneyland in Anaheim open up again.

Good magic to all,


Eric
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (May 5, 2020 11:47PM)
Wow I wish someone would have just said things like this would start happening. Whoda thunk huh?
Message: Posted by: Ray Pierce (May 6, 2020 08:03PM)
The smaller show type projects could come back pretty soon. On the other hand, tours and corporate shows that were my bread and butter are still a long long way off!
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (May 6, 2020 09:59PM)
Ray I've talked with music industry folks who think 18 months till 2 years before anything close to as it was will happen.

Here is a pretty interesting read.

https://amp.wbur.org/artery/2020/05/04/coronavirus-pandemic-music-industry-concerts
Message: Posted by: Ken Northridge (May 8, 2020 05:36AM)
I got my first inquiry for a school assembly since early March. They want something positive happen on the first day of school in September. Who knows if it will happen but its an indication of what people are thinking.
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (May 8, 2020 08:30AM)
Yes, we too have been getting calls for the past couple of weeks for back to school as well.

That's encouraging for your area.
Message: Posted by: thomasR (May 8, 2020 01:27PM)
On the negative side... I just got an email today that a major city festival I had booked for August is reconsidering the event this year. They havent cancelled yet but my contact was just letting me know the option is being considered after a meeting with the city today.

Ive still got a fall concert tour booked (lighting design) - its a theatre tour not arenas so maybe it can happen?
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (May 8, 2020 06:42PM)
[quote]On May 5, 2020, The great Gumbini wrote:
Well my brother-in-law checked his status and it was sent on the 24th and he got his on the 27th of April. Mine says my wife and I had ours sent out on the 1st of May and we still have not received it yet.I was wondering if anyone else is in the same boat?

Good magic to all,


Eric [/quote]

Are you expecting a check or direct deposit. If it's a check, you have to allow the post office a few extra days to deliver. If it was a direct deposit, something is wrong. Mine status said it would be deposited on the 6th and the morning of the 6th it was in my bank.

Speaking of checks and deposits, I read that the Democrats are pushing another package. This one is supposed to included a $2000 per person per month every month until the CDC declairs the pandemic to be over. The payments are supposed to be retroactive to March. They had a hard enough time getting the measely $1200/$2400. How will they every handle a payout like this?
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (May 8, 2020 07:32PM)
They never will. It will never pass. It is a positioning move and nothing more.
Message: Posted by: TomBoleware (May 8, 2020 07:51PM)
$2000 Per Month would be nice. :) But all this Free Money has to end somewhere or we all are really going to be in a mess.
No I cant see it passing.

Tom
Message: Posted by: Dave Scribner (May 9, 2020 06:51AM)
I never thought it would progress. Just the latest rumor.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (May 9, 2020 08:14AM)
Mind you the damage will continue.
Message: Posted by: thomasR (May 12, 2020 02:53PM)
Broadway theaters announced they will remain closed until September 6.

It veers into the highly debated online shows category but Hamilton is releasing early on Disney+ this July.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (May 12, 2020 04:34PM)
Broadway is going to be closed much longer if you ask me.

I just heard 2 very disturbing things, not only because thet counter my opinion, but because of how many are affected.

MGM basically told employees to find other work while they can. New York New York and Bellagio will open but then a staggering number will be opening much slower, even late into 2021!

I have seen as few as HALF the casinos will reopen any time soon. Meanwhile as of this writing 311 people have died in the state of Nevada.
Message: Posted by: thomasR (May 12, 2020 05:37PM)
Do you know why they picked New York New York? Seems like an odd choice so Im wondering what the reason might be. Maybe the layout is easier for them to operate in a more limited capacity or something.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (May 12, 2020 05:38PM)
I have heard multiple reasons. But price point to operate makes the most sense.

Also I believe they all operate through different holding companies so it may have something to do with that. I'm bitter certain of the last part.
Message: Posted by: thomasR (May 12, 2020 06:17PM)
[quote]On May 12, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
I have heard multiple reasons. But price point to operate makes the most sense.

Also I believe they all operate through different holding companies so it may have something to do with that. I'm bitter certain of the last part. [/quote]

Makes sense. New York New York is just the casino I pass through when Ive got a cheap room at the Exacalibur and Im headed to MGM. Those were the days :(
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (May 12, 2020 06:24PM)
[quote]On May 12, 2020, thomasR wrote:
New York New York is just the casino I pass through when Ive got a cheap room at the Exacalibur and Im headed to MGM. [/quote]

Or to get a great Sheppard's Pie at Nine Fine Irishmen.
Message: Posted by: thomasR (May 12, 2020 06:41PM)
[quote]On May 12, 2020, Mindpro wrote:
[quote]On May 12, 2020, thomasR wrote:
New York New York is just the casino I pass through when Ive got a cheap room at the Exacalibur and Im headed to MGM. [/quote]

Or to get a great Sheppard's Pie at Nine Fine Irishmen. [/quote]

Oh yeah youre right! Theyve got the shake shack too dont they? Im more of an in-n-out fan but when I stay on that end of the strip gotta get a good shake somewhere! Lol.
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (May 12, 2020 08:16PM)
So true, I'm in complete agreement with you on all counts.
Message: Posted by: Decomposed (May 13, 2020 05:02PM)
Just got a voicemail today, I got a conference call tomorrow for inhouse event in September and I am in the running for an event in October. Staying with my prediction for December as not an end, but the beginning of Big Events nationwide.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (May 13, 2020 05:40PM)
Shows open this week in Branson.

As I said from the start this is a political issue.

On another note though Broadway thinks September 6th is their goal and that is a vERY optimistic date.
Message: Posted by: thomasR (May 13, 2020 06:05PM)
Oh which Branson shows? I may need to plan a trip. Pigeon Forge will probably be opening soon as well.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (May 13, 2020 06:18PM)
Almost all. Certainly by June it will be all.
Message: Posted by: thomasR (May 14, 2020 03:52PM)
June 5th is the current date for many Pigeon Forge theaters.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (May 14, 2020 04:25PM)
Restaurants are open in Branson. I have no clue what will happen. IF tourists come back or not who can say? To be an optimist the people who come to Branson drive, and are from a region of the country that is not hit hard by this.

If it is a good thing or a bad thing I have no idea, and I am stopping making predictions because I have been pretty wrong. Obviously I am not a mentalist. I did not account for the political fallout.

It is before the big time of year, but there are a LOT of places that are really hurting already.

So many shows operate on the ragged edge that I hope they get by this year.
Message: Posted by: thomasR (May 14, 2020 06:47PM)
More news... Frozen has announced it will not be returning to Broadway. Im guessing thats the first of many to make that announcement.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (May 14, 2020 10:25PM)
I think the same thing.
Message: Posted by: Ray Pierce (May 20, 2020 03:53PM)
I heard about that but even more interesting to me is that Disney Theatrical already has several new Broadway projects in the pipeline including "The Princess Bride", "The Hunchback of Notre Dame", "The Jungle Book", "Hercules", and even "Alice in Wonderland" based on the Tim Burton film.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (May 26, 2020 04:29PM)
Broadway seems to be planning on 2021. Ouch.
Message: Posted by: thomasR (Jun 5, 2020 03:17PM)
Penns latest podcast he talks about trying to make decisions about performing shows and filming Fool Us in August and September.

Branson and Pigeon Forge are opening up - silver dollar city and Dollywood later this month.

Have any Vegas shows announced a re-opening date?

Disney World opens in July but will be interesting to see if any indoor shows are running when they open.
Message: Posted by: Mark Boody Illusionist (Jun 5, 2020 06:59PM)
SDC opens June 13th & 14th for season pass holders and the 15th for the general public.

It will be interesting to say the least. No indoor shows at SDC, but outdoor performing venues will be open.

I will pass along my thoughts after we open.

Mark
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Jun 5, 2020 07:29PM)
I will tell you how this is going in Branson with no judgement, just observation.

At some restaurants that have corporate ownership, the things look MUCH different than those without. At some places the staff does not even wear masks. No kidding. (Also not naming any place so don't ask.) Again not making right/wrong judgement, just observations is all.

At places that have corporate presence the social distancing stuff at least is attempted for sure and to varying degrees otherwise.

As far as the tourists themselves go it is not even a worry. They could not seem to care less about it. While maybe 5-10% have masks on the vast majority are over it. Older people are the ones wearing them, and the only judgment I'd make is that probably isn't a bad thing. I am getting the impression from the huge percentage of them that they are over this and sick of the political crap that fuels it. If you don't think it is political good for you, I am telling you what the people who show up here are saying.

In Las Vegas The D opened up and within 10 seconds or so all the guidelines went out the window. As I said earlier and maybe it was edited, people are just not going to put up with this. Maybe they are right and maybe they are wrong but one thing is for certain a pretty large contingent of people are just sick of being out of work, sick of being confined while those who confine us are not and just going back to life as they want to.

The other interesting thing that happened was the unemployment numbers were FAR better than almost anyone expected. This will fuel the desire/need for entertainers so if you have not paid attention to that you should. It is sort of a signal of sorts about how the economy will react.

Again read no judgment into what I have said. I am making NO predictions as I have been pretty wrong across this whole thing. I think this thing has gotten WAY further than I ever imagined people would let it get so my predictive skills are pretty abysmal.
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (Jun 5, 2020 10:06PM)
Yeah, same here in Las Vegas. Many casinos are open now including restaurants. After checking out several of the properties only about 5-10% of customers are wearing masks and even though I was literally looking for it I am not seeing 6 feet of social distancing. Like Danny said the attitude, which is exactly as I predicted, is "we are over this and will proceed as before all of this."

Lake Mead which normally draws 20,000 people on the weekends under normal conditions, has been drawing 40-50,000 visitors per weekend both during the self-isolation and more now this past weekend.

I've been now to several restaurants where the staff are supposed to be wearing their masks at all times, and it is strong;y recommended customers do as well. Literally none of them (staff) were wearing masks...properly. Yes, they all had masks on, but they were either worn down around their neck, or fastened at the ears, but the maks was dropped down under their chin.

California this last weekend was much the same from what we saw.

I had said the people would endure 6-8 weeks of this and that would be it, and they are screaming that in spades. It was actually the same across all ages, as I thought the older 55+ would be more compliant with the masks and distancing, but it does not appear so.

Illinois schools and other states have been given the ok to re-open for summer and the 20-21 school year is expected to on as normal. I am getting reports for the majority of states that business seems back in swing even though some restrictions may be in place. Traffic certainly is back on the roads, highways, and freeways as well.
Message: Posted by: Ken Northridge (Jun 6, 2020 04:51AM)
Meanwhile in New Jersey.

The Governor has just extended the Public Health Emergency for another 30 days! Which I believe, among other things, means we must wear face masks until July 5th at least. Businesses are opening at a snails pace. OUTDOOR dining June 15th, beauty salons June 21st. Phase 2 begins June 15th but only if we behave ourselves. No indication how long phase 2 will last.

The only good news I have is Ive had 2 inquiries for shows in the past 24 hours. One was looking for entertainment this summer because they closed their summer camp. So, maybe theres some hope.

Ive finally brought myself to consider what I need to do to be Covid-19 compliant, or at least Covid-19 sensitive.
Message: Posted by: charliecheckers (Jun 6, 2020 01:24PM)
There is a definite variability in the way the return to normal is going. Here, in New York it is moving VERY SLOWLY! Even if we decided today to go back to normal its still to late for summer, because nearly all fairs and festivals have already cancelled through late summer and into fall. I have been in contact with numerous school teachers regarding the 2020 - 2021 school year and none of them believe this year will be back to usual. They are speaking of alternating days or an am/pm schedule. Some say we may not return in the fall at all. They are planning to ensure proper social distancing in schools and on busses. Many things need to be sorted out in the next few weeks- and money and politics are of course involved.

Many restaurants have not open yet, because they are afraid they are not meeting the requirements set forth, so they delayed up to a week past the reopen date. Those that are, only have outside dining. Everyone is wearing masks! Heck, even most of the protesters were wearing masks. Libraries are beginning to open up (for pick up only) and many that I contacted in my area last week were still closed. Performances for the summer are cancelled.

As it relates to being the owner of a live performance company that serves the library, school, fair and festival market - I would say the outlook here is not good, at all. While I am hopeful that assemblies may return to schools, being objective and looking at the current landscape - there is a far greater than 50% chance that it will not happen, even if Coronavirus statistics do not climb (which again is nowhere near certain). I do hope the fairs that have not yet cancelled find a way to stay open and bring in entertainment for shows. Again, while that is my hope- objectively, I doubt it - based upon how things have been going here and how conservative everyone has been. Its important to maintain objectivity when prioritizing and planning business opportunities.
Message: Posted by: thomasR (Jun 6, 2020 01:55PM)
My area seems like its in the middle. Id say 50/50 or so are wearing masks when in public but it seems like 100% of staff are wearing masks at restaurants and coffee shops and stores. A few tourist attractions around me just opened this weekend with reservations only, limited seating, masks reccommended, etc.

The musical artist Im working for this year (well was supposed to be working for) just told everyone yesterday he was feeling iffy that the fall tour will happen and hes HOPING he can still do his Christmas tour. (National touring artist).
Message: Posted by: thomasR (Jun 25, 2020 06:19PM)
It just keeps getting stranger and stranger! Im tempted to go to Branson just to see some magic shows in case everything goes downhill again!

Disneyland announced reopening and then pushed back.
Disneyworld is still on for reopening as of now.

Mindoro - anything in Vegas happening yet? Mac King said he thought one of the variety shows had opened and then had to close again? (That was on macs interview with Franz this week). I know casinos are open again but havent heard anything about shows yet.
Message: Posted by: Mindpro (Jun 25, 2020 06:43PM)
No major shows yet and the way things are gooing it could be a while. Casinos on and off the stirp have been open two weeks today, and only local (non-famous/known acts), but things are getting worse and are not going as expected. Hardly anyone wearing masks, increased cases reported, and now they are saying things may be 10x worse than what's being reported.

Plus many entertainers/performance venues are concerned with the political correctness concerns/issues as well.


As of midnight tonight the Governor has issued a mandate for masks to be worn (mandatory) in all public places and venues open to the public. Some restaurants that re-opened are have now started to close, 5 so far, as well as some other businesses. I expect it to turn more for the worse rather than getting better. All reported increased statistics are as of Memorial Day before things even reopened.

D**n tourists, lol.
Message: Posted by: Ken Northridge (Jun 26, 2020 12:31AM)
[quote]On Jun 25, 2020, thomasR wrote:
It just keeps getting stranger and stranger! [/quote]
My thoughts exactly!

My summer is a big question mark. Many gigs are still cancelling, but a got few new bookings including a new strolling gig for July 4th! I did not expect my first gig to be a strolling gig. Its outdoors but still, I will have to navigate the acceptability of the magic happening in the spectators hands and handing out props for inspection. Close up magic is certainly not as strong without these things. Plus, trying to do 'Close up' magic six feet away is silly.

It remains to be seen if this gig will not cancel also. I've had a few people call wanting a magic show, but when I start talking about the precautions I will take because of covid19 they lose interest and never call back!

I fear the 2020/2021 school assembly season will be lost. Large gatherings like this indoors will be the last thing to come back.

[quote]On Jun 25, 2020, Mindpro wrote:
Plus many entertainers/performance venues are concerned with the political correctness concerns/issues as well.
[/quote]

It is amazing to see how political and divisive this face mask issue has become. There is great anger on both sides. And you are forced to take a side because you can't hide it.

I love that Back to the Future meme, "Marty, Whatever you do, don't go to the year 2020!"

Isn't that the truth!
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Jun 26, 2020 07:26AM)
Oh this whole thing is political make no mistake. Still a virus, still a bad one but this is political and it is sad.
Message: Posted by: misterillusion (Jun 27, 2020 12:25PM)
[quote]On Jun 26, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
Oh this whole thing is political make no mistake. Still a virus, still a bad one but this is political and it is sad. [/quote]
It is a shame that more people don't realize this is political.
Message: Posted by: Gerry Walkowski (Jun 29, 2020 04:10PM)
Id you haven't heard yet, Broadway is closed for the rest of 2020.

Gerry
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Jun 29, 2020 04:15PM)
[quote]On May 26, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
Broadway seems to be planning on 2021. Ouch. [/quote]

Yea we heard.
Message: Posted by: imgic (Jun 29, 2020 06:35PM)
Cirque Du Soleil has filed for bankruptcy...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/music/news/cirque-du-soleil-files-for-bankruptcy-protection-amid-pandemic/ar-BB167skP?li=BBnbfcL
Message: Posted by: Ken Northridge (Jun 30, 2020 04:08AM)
New Jersey indoor dining was supposed to open July 2nd. However, The Governor just announced indoor dining is now prohibited indefinitely.

Corona Virus outlook: Bad!
Message: Posted by: thomasR (Jun 30, 2020 12:14PM)
[quote]On Jun 30, 2020, Ken Northridge wrote:
New Jersey indoor dining was supposed to open July 2nd. However, The Governor just announced indoor dining is now prohibited indefinitely.

Corona Virus outlook: Bad! [/quote]

Very. Events that were still on for August and October just cancelled on me in the last couple of days. Not looking good.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Jun 30, 2020 01:36PM)
[quote]On Jun 30, 2020, Ken Northridge wrote:
New Jersey indoor dining was supposed to open July 2nd. However, The Governor just announced indoor dining is now prohibited indefinitely.

Corona Virus outlook: Bad! [/quote]

Meanwhile shows in Branson are running along with indoor dining.
Message: Posted by: Mark Boody Illusionist (Jul 1, 2020 09:24AM)
[quote]On Jun 30, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
[quote]On Jun 30, 2020, Ken Northridge wrote:
New Jersey indoor dining was supposed to open July 2nd. However, The Governor just announced indoor dining is now prohibited indefinitely.

Corona Virus outlook: Bad! [/quote]

Meanwhile shows in Branson are running along with indoor dining. [/quote]

Along with SDC with social distancing and masks as well as limiting the amount of guests on park.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Jul 1, 2020 10:09AM)
Yea for better or worse it seems as if the town is moving forward with being open for summer.

I make NO judgments of whether it is right or wrong. It just is.

SDC will have trouble with occupancy with the mask rule I know that much.

New things happen every day.
Message: Posted by: Mark Boody Illusionist (Jul 1, 2020 01:39PM)
Danny

So true regarding SDC, right now park capacity is 9000 guests, however we are doing about half that.

If you don't like the crowds, it would be a good time to come.

Mark
Message: Posted by: thomasR (Jul 1, 2020 01:43PM)
[quote]On Jul 1, 2020, Mark Boody Illusionist wrote:
Danny

So true regarding SDC, right now park capacity is 9000 guests, however we are doing about half that.

If you don't like the crowds, it would be a good time to come.

Mark [/quote]

Are any indoor shows happening? At sdcs sister park Dollywood, I dont think any indoor shows are open but there is outdoor entertainment.
Message: Posted by: Mark Boody Illusionist (Jul 1, 2020 09:42PM)
ThomasR

As of right now, no indoor shows. The shows that are happening are in "open air" theaters with
social distancing protocols. No audience participants and entrances and exits into & out the theaters
are "one way". All seating is being sanitized between shows.

Mark
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Jul 1, 2020 09:54PM)
[quote]On Jul 1, 2020, Mark Boody Illusionist wrote:
ThomasR

As of right now, no indoor shows. The shows that are happening are in "open air" theaters with
social distancing protocols. No audience participants and entrances and exits into & out the theaters
are "one way". All seating is being sanitized between shows.

Mark [/quote]

My friend Mike Bliss is doing his show outdoors.

Good thing for Mike he is so creative. His show was LOTS of audience stuff. Obviously he has to change that, but if anyone can adapt it is him.
Message: Posted by: thomasR (Jul 1, 2020 11:33PM)
[quote]On Jul 1, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
[quote]On Jul 1, 2020, Mark Boody Illusionist wrote:
ThomasR

As of right now, no indoor shows. The shows that are happening are in "open air" theaters with
social distancing protocols. No audience participants and entrances and exits into & out the theaters
are "one way". All seating is being sanitized between shows.

Mark [/quote]

My friend Mike Bliss is doing his show outdoors.

Good thing for Mike he is so creative. His show was LOTS of audience stuff. Obviously he has to change that, but if anyone can adapt it is him. [/quote]

Oh I love Mike! Yeah Im guessing he cant do much pick-pocketing right now can he? I love his rope-tie escape, he makes it look so easy!
Message: Posted by: Ken Northridge (Jul 7, 2020 06:11AM)
I had 4 confirmed bookings this weekend and there couldnt have been more of a contrast. Here is a report:

The first one cancelled with 24-hours notice because of local outbreak of covid-19.

The second was a crowed swim club with not one face mask to be seen.

The third was restaurant. When I got there I discovered they had decided to close. No one told me.

The forth was a small outdoor party for about 20 people in which every child and adult (including me) wore a mask the entire show.

Outlook: I have no idea!
Message: Posted by: thomasR (Jul 7, 2020 12:05PM)
Ken- I think you summed it up quite well - seems to be anyones guess.

My fall tour just officially cancelled today... and a large event in JANUARY cancelled earlier this week.

Meanwhile Disney World is opening up with cast member previews today and annual passholders by reservation later this week.
Message: Posted by: Ray Pierce (Jul 7, 2020 02:11PM)
The fireworks business is equally getting destroyed. Last year I had 12 shows, this year I was lucky to get 2. 7 shows got cancelled within 48 hours. Pyro Spectaculars normally has 400 - 500 shows on the 4th... this year they had 10.

My big tours are all gone until at LEAST 2021 but the promoter is starting to book "Drive In" events. Originally it was just in LA and NYC but now there are around a dozen starting all over the country. Creativity is winning!
Message: Posted by: thomasR (Jul 10, 2020 12:36AM)
I read that Nevada is going backwards with more restrictions, but I'm not sure if that actually means anything? Florida said they were closing bars but then opened a loophole that allowed bars to stay open if they are serving food.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Jul 10, 2020 10:47AM)
It is a political football. It will go back and forth.

Las Vegas itself will have trouble controlling patrons. There is no way people going there with the expectation of "what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas" will capitulate to severe restrictions and social distancing and masks. It simply won't happen.

Again not taking a position on right or wrong. I, unlike EVERYONE on the internet, am simply not qualified as an infectious disease expert. I am only telling you what I see, and what people will do.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Jul 10, 2020 11:42PM)
I actually saw, of all things tonight in Branson a FULL TOUR BUS!

Holy cow I couldn't believe it. Took picture as proof. A tour bus with actual tourists.

I have NO IDEA how smart THAT is. Might have been a family, or whatever. Seemed very odd though.

Believe me that was the LAST thing I thought I might see.
Message: Posted by: thomasR (Jul 15, 2020 01:18PM)
2021 Rose Parade cancelled.
Message: Posted by: thomasR (Jul 23, 2020 08:48PM)
Franz Hararys excellent quarantine talks recently had juggler Neils Duinker on. Hes doing his variety shows in Ohio right now and he talks about limiting the audience, social distancing with volunteers etc. plus he shows off some cool juggling!
Message: Posted by: Ray Pierce (Jul 23, 2020 10:02PM)
We're starting to do Drive In's as many others seem to be. I've sen several music acts as well as a few comedians venturing into this area. No, it's not as good as a traditional, we all know that. It's just a new way to connect in some way. Sadly, I can't see it working for magic but who knows?
Message: Posted by: steadyeddy2000 (Nov 18, 2020 01:32AM)
I have a total of 4 gigs in 6 months..I need to find a new line of work. Luckily its not my full time job, I feel for everyone who is F/T
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Nov 18, 2020 08:11AM)
Looks like there are 3 versions of a vaccine over 90% effective. Now we have to wait for politicians to tell us if we need to be afraid and spin it for political benefit.