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TomasB Inner circle Sweden 1144 Posts |
The horseflue gets one in a thousand sick. There is no remedy once it shows any symtoms.
There is a test that is accurate 95% of the time when the person actually has the horseflue and it will also be 95% accurate if the person does not have the horseflue. You feel perfectly healthy and take the test. It shows positive. What's the probability that you have the horseflue? /Tomas |
TomasB Inner circle Sweden 1144 Posts |
Landmark got the correct probability of him having the Horseflu. Yes, I've learned how to spell "flu" now.
/Tomas |
TomasB Inner circle Sweden 1144 Posts |
Murf got it too. The answer, that is. We are not sure if he has got the Horseflu.
/Tomas |
Slim King Eternal Order Orlando 18012 Posts |
Has he been around any Horses?
THE MAN THE SKEPTICS REFUSE TO TEST FOR ONE MILLION DOLLARS.. The Worlds Foremost Authority on Houdini's Life after Death.....
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Slim King Eternal Order Orlando 18012 Posts |
Has he been around any Horses?
THE MAN THE SKEPTICS REFUSE TO TEST FOR ONE MILLION DOLLARS.. The Worlds Foremost Authority on Houdini's Life after Death.....
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bodybyfood Regular user 111 Posts |
Ok, so I don't have a guess yet, but I can offer this: you should also check out "symptoms."
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TomasB Inner circle Sweden 1144 Posts |
Thanks bodybyfood. The trap I fell into is explained on page 244 of http://www.ling.gu.se/~natasha/PDF_2tryck.pdf
/Tomas |
murf Loyal user San Antonio, TX 264 Posts |
Despite the fact that I'm in the middle of Texas, I haven't been around any horses lately. On the other hand, how many of the people who have come down with swine flu have been around any swine?
Murf |
Nir Dahan Inner circle Munich, Germany 1390 Posts |
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TomasB Inner circle Sweden 1144 Posts |
What if you find an antidote that saves 98% of the people that are sick, but kills 2% of the people that are not sick. Would you take the antidote if the above test showed positive? If you wait until any symptoms show, it's too late.
/Tomas |
Lior Inner circle 1961 Posts |
Derren brown has this problem in his book as well.
A good one Lior
The Lior Touch
https://1amagic.com/ PEA Dave Lederman Award 2009 PEA Dunninger Award 2001 Life Time Achivmeant IUPA 2016 |
TomasB Inner circle Sweden 1144 Posts |
What book is that, Lior?
Wonders, /Tomas |
WilburrUK Veteran user 389 Posts |
It's in his "Tricks of the Mind" book. In the openning chapter if my memory serves me correctly - which it sometimes does.
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