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Rocketeer Special user Westchester, NY 965 Posts |
Hi all,
I've been on the Café for years but I just discovered this board. I think it's great. I have a puzzle. If it was already posed I apologize for repeating it. Denise majored in Women's Studies when she was at university. For a while she volunteered at a rape crisis center. Which of the following two statements are more likely to be true? 1. Denise is now a bank teller. 2. Denise is now a bank teller and a card carrying member of NOW. (For you non Americans NOW is a feminist advocacy group: The National Organization for Women.) This should be child's play for the big brains on this board.
I'm selling my hardcover autographed limited edition copy of Jerome Finley's "Thought Veil"
PM me for info. |
S2000magician Inner circle Yorba Linda, CA 3465 Posts |
1.
(Even statistics majors frequently get this wrong.) |
Rocketeer Special user Westchester, NY 965 Posts |
Anybody disagree?
I'm selling my hardcover autographed limited edition copy of Jerome Finley's "Thought Veil"
PM me for info. |
Scott Cram Inner circle 2678 Posts |
I'd have to say 1, as well.
Denise has an X% chance of being a teller. Denise also has a Y% chance of being a member of NOW. Both factors taken into consideration together lower the total chance (since both odds are lower than 100%). |
Rocketeer Special user Westchester, NY 965 Posts |
I said this one would be child's play for you guys!
I'm selling my hardcover autographed limited edition copy of Jerome Finley's "Thought Veil"
PM me for info. |
NJJ Inner circle 6437 Posts |
Neither. Woman are not good enough at math to be bank tellers.
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chappelly Special user Down Under 744 Posts |
Quote:
On 2010-02-22 04:18, Nicholas J. Johnson wrote: You are obviously a fast runner. ;-) |
sourcerer Regular user Netherlands 175 Posts |
Quote:
On 2010-01-30 22:40, S2000magician wrote: Well, that then says a lot about the state of today's education. Scary. Kaj |
Alan Jackson Elite user Cardiff, UK 432 Posts |
There's an excellent discussion of this kind of question in "Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heristics and Biases" by Tversky and Kahneman, particularly chapter 6.
There are 10 kinds of people: those who understand binary numbers, and those who don't.
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