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The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » The Gambling Spot » » Who Plays Online Texas Hold'em? (1 Likes) Printer Friendly Version

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splice
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Quote:
On Jul 23, 2014, AMcD wrote:
It's years you refute 99% of what I say or write, but what about you? Have you made statistical analysis about the online cardroom you play? You have a fair idea about the randomness of their RNG algorithm?


Unlike you, I don't put any trust in unsupported ******** anecdotes of inaccurate, biased human recollection of something that happened 10 years ago for which you conveniently lost all your evidence.

Here's one simple test:

Quote:
Exact binomial test

data: 1882 and 32668
number of successes = 1882, number of trials = 32668, p-value = 0.3591
alternative hypothesis: true probability of success is not equal to 0.05882353
95 percent confidence interval:
0.05510733 0.06019147
sample estimates:
probability of success
0.05760989


Do with it what you will, I don't really give a **** about opinions and gut feelings, the math is the math.
silverking
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The math stops being the math if somebody like Annie Duke is sitting at a computer linked to a server in Costa Rica looking at your hole cards while calling you all in on the river for 50K, when all she's got is high card to your unfilled, fully suited double open ender.

Not sure we're going to get anywhere with this thread, but at least it's a bit of action in the forum ... which has been a little dead lately.
splice
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Superuser scams are a thing. Collusion is a thing. ******** gut-feeling arguments and "throw **** at the wall until something sticks" are not. Calling people suckers for playing online because someone claims they once had 400 hands with no pocket pairs or because some live players say the feel of online proves it's all rigged is pure BS. Also, regardless of who's looking at my cards, math governs the distribution of starting hands, so if my binomial test fails to reject H0=I received pocket pairs 1 out of 17 hands, then the distribution of pocket pairs in my starting hands is fine, and the math is still the math.

I would welcome a nuanced argument that online play is not completely safe and that precautions must be taken, just as live play is not completely safe and precautions must be taken. I will completely dismiss any kind of argument that is based on anecdotes and ridiculous logic. I make no claim that online play is always safe, but I know the risks and I have the capability and the faculties to evaluate them to my own satisfaction. I have found absolutely no reason to trust anyone's opinion, anecdote or gut-feeling over my actual, 100% real, complete, trustworthy data.
silverking
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Splice, I fully support your right to proffer your opinion along with others here ... you know that.

I would only add that my experience has taught me that as in life, poker and online poker have far more shades of gray such that it would disallow any and all black and white declarations and statements regarding the veracity of another players personal experience or opinion as it might relate to online or live poker in general, and/or the basic integrity of online or B&M poker specifically.

In your own words, a nuanced discussion would have to keep any and all opinions put forth as legitimate experience of the speaker.

To "completely dismiss" another opinion, as put forth by somebody we know is very experienced in the subject matter (IMO) doesn't work in keeping any nuanced discussion moving forward.

Black and white statements which disinvite alternate opinion or response (something I'm overly guilty of making myself) tend to reflect somebodies blog rather than an online discussion forum.
I only comment here because this is an interesting thread, which will end poorly if folks don't develop a broader view of other posters opinions. One doesn't have to agree, simply acknowledge.
splice
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Fine, I acknowledge that you have opinions and beliefs which you cannot support with actual data. None of those will change my analysis of my own conditions, and anyone who accepts those kinds of claims at face value deserves to walk down the path those beliefs lead them on. I ain't going to waste my time arguing further.
silverking
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Ummm, the actual data is UltimateBet and Absolute Poker not only acknowledging their indiscretions, but going out of business as a result of them.
The actual data would reflect that UltimateBet and Absolute Poker demonstrate that ANY major online poker site is prone to security lapses such that an online player could be cheated.

The actual data is me knowing poker players personally who maintain multiple accounts on major online poker sites, and who regularly play two or three positions at the same table, and as different players. Those players have demonstrated to me personally, in actual game play, with me sitting beside them in a chair, their ability to easily defeat not only the online poker sites IP address tracking, but also the various algorithms designed to track and catch single players in multiple seats at the same table.

The only "gut" feeling I noted in this thread was that I repeatedly see things online that in over 30 years of playing live poker I've never seen once at a live table. You're welcome to dismiss that "gut" feeling, but it is remains something I, as an experienced player, have seen repeatedly and noted for posterity.

So I do have hard, factual data to support some of my observations. The data is overt, it's factual, it's confirmed, and it's most definitely real.

Having said all of the above, I still have $689.53 in my PokerStars account, won't be taking it out soon, and still play online when the mood strikes me.

Gray is far more engaging than black and white Smile
AMcD
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No, "maths are not the maths"! That's silly.

Again, I don't claim all people are suckers because MY own experience. As usual, you want me to say what you would want me to say Smile. No pocket pair for 400+ hands didn't happened once, that's what you refuse to understand in my writings, but SEVERAL times, each time my wining/cashing % where above a certain level, 14% if I remember well.

No, I don't have data anymore, yes it was 9 years ago or so, and believe what you want.

Why don't you show us your successful online play, with all the correct decisions (according to the theory!) and correct deals that lead to big money Smile?
AMcD
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I forgot to mention that online Poker has got its reputation from top players or endorsed players too! Many have been caught cheating, Besides, their mentality is very often, so-so, to say the very least.

Splice, do you remember this one, about Tom Dwan claiming that multi-accounting was not cheating? He was endorsed by Full Tilt Poker by that time, clearly mentioning in their rules that multi-accounting was strictly forbidden. Yet, one of their icons, was deliberately exceeding their own rules. Do you remember Bleznick as well?

It tells a lot about how accurate their detection and checking procedures are...
p-n_junction
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I was playing professionally for about 3 years. I didn't win millions but I was making ok money for a student to buys some goods, pay rent and don't have financial needs.
After Black Friday I stopped for several reasons. Currently I play just for fun, like 10 - 30 tournaments per month, so volume is very small. I simply found more interesting thing that also allows me to make some cash and I don't wanna spend 10+ hours in front of PC every day anymore.
Anyway some of my friends from different parts of the world are still playing and making decent living out of it.
So no cons for me on this topic, only pros.
p-n_junction
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BTW, Arnold, are your sure that was durrrr claiming that multiaccs is not cheating?
AMcD
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Yes, was Tom "durrr" Dwan.

http://www.pokerupdate.com/poker-opinion......c-forum/

About your online career, would you mind to discuss a few details? Just for the sake of debating. If you don't want, no worries! In short, how many websites were you using, how many hours per day did you play, what type of game (tourney, cash, private, public), what buy-in? What kind of % were you tracking about for your ROI? $/hour, $/week?

And mainly, you din't notice anything? Collusion between players, etc.?

Thanks.
Elwood P. Dowd
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And there are other issues with gambling online, too.

Paddy Power: hackers stole details of 600,000 users

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/in......ers.html

Hi, AMcD, glad you're back!
AMcD
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Hi Elmwood!

I overheard that story. Nice reading. 4 years ago... and they said nothing!

And some still believe that online Poker/Gambling websites are safe...

I pass Smile.
brehaut
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I can only tell you my experience. I played online--mostly pokerstars. I specialized in sit n gos. I played up to 20 at a time. If I played and broke even I would make about $2000 a month from the VIP rewards cash back. For a few years I made good money. Before black friday I quit because when they made it harder to get your money on the sites, the games got tougher and I found I was playing a lot and not making enough. I was glad I got out 6 months before black friday.

I did have some horrible runs where I was convinced it was fixed but I consitently made money in the long run. One thing I noticed playing large volume--I had 20 games going at once, two to three hands a minute---that meant something that was one out of a hundred would happen every couple minutes. You just have to get used to it.

I would love to start playing now but I have no idea if there are any sites that have the volume of SNG games with good rakeback for US players.
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