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Magic.J.Manuel Special user I have danced upon 663 Posts |
In Craps you can place a "true odds" bet, but on a point of 4 or 10 the odds are 2 to 1. So even though the casino doesn't take an edge it still seems like a bad bet. Does the payout really outweigh the poor odds?
Also if the odds of rolling a 7 is 6 in 36, does playing 6 and 8 give you a 10 in 36 odds of winning.
Nothing would get done at all, if man waited so long that no one could find fault with it.
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Cagliostro Inner circle 2478 Posts |
Quote:
On Oct 9, 2015, Magic.J.Manuel wrote: Don't really understand what you are asking. The correct odds against rolling a 4 before a 7 or a 10 before a 7 is 2 to 1 respectively so it is a dead even bet if you are getting those odds. When getting true odds in conjunction with a pass line bet, or a come bet, it simply reduces the negative percentage against the total bet. Quote:
Also if the odds of rolling a 7 is 6 in 36, does playing 6 and 8 give you a 10 in 36 odds of winning. Don't understand this question either. You can't bet the 6 or 8 against all the other numbers (10 out of 36). You can only bet a 6 or an 8 before a 7. The correct odds of rolling a 6 before a 7 or an 8 before a 7 is 6 to 5 respectively. You have to get those odds for an even bet with no percentage disadvantage. You can only get the correct odds on a bet that is made in addition to another bet, either a pass line or come bet. (Or conversely you can lay the correct odds on a don't come or don't pass bet.) Laying or taking to correct odds in conjunction with another bet as explained above is a good bet because it reduces the house percentage against you. Once again, I really don't know what you are asking but it is late at night as I write this, so maybe the sunlight will give greater clarity. |
Magic.J.Manuel Special user I have danced upon 663 Posts |
Thanks for he reply, let me try to ask the question better.
I do get it that the odds bet follows a come out bet, but if the point is 4 then your supposed to bet the true odds that the 4 will be rolled again(win), before the 7(lose). But on any given roll of two dice the probability that neither is rolled is higher than a 4. And the most likely number (not 7) to roll is 6 or 8. So instead of putting more chips on a 4 you can "place" it on 6 and 8. Even though it does not pay full odds it is still more likely to win.
Nothing would get done at all, if man waited so long that no one could find fault with it.
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Cagliostro Inner circle 2478 Posts |
The only thing that matters is the percentage for or against you on a bet. If it is more likely to roll a 8 before a 7 than roll an 4 before a 7, that is irrelevant if you are compensated by the odds.
If you bet the six or eight by placing the number, instead of getting the correct odds of 6 to 5, you are getting 7 to 6 which means it is an unfair bet (or worse yet, betting the Big 6 and Big 8 and getting even money). While it is true you will win more bets playing the 6 or 8 before a 7 as opposed to getting a 4 or 10 before a seven, you are being shortchanged on each 6 or 8 bet. Betting the 4 or 10 and getting correct odds means you will break even on the bet in the long run. It is somewhat like flipping a coin. If I bet heads on every flip and you bet tails on every flip, but every time I win you pay me $2.00 and every time you win I pay you $1.00, even though about half the time you will win on tails, in 100 flips you will lose $50.00 just because I am shortchanging you on the bet. In other words, in 100 flips, I will win 50 times for $2 or $100 total and you will win 50 times for $1 for a total of $50. (We are simplifying this as in a large sample size the deviations for heads to tails will tend to even out percentage wise.) So here, for simplicity you and I both win 50 bets out of 100 but I win $100 and you win only $50 because the payoff odds are not correct. I actually "earned" $50 by giving you the incorrect odds. So here you will win your bet about half the time but still lose money in the long run. So frequency of winning a bet has nothing to do with it. That is simplifying it all but that is the way it is in all gambling games. Hopfully that clarifies it for you to some degree. This is pretty basic stuff when it comes to gambling. |
Magic.J.Manuel Special user I have danced upon 663 Posts |
I know this is basic stuff, but the coin flip example is over simplified. If the coin were weighted so that the tails is a 75% probability then it would win enough to make more than a heads bet at twice the payout.
The chance of rolling a 4 is 3/36 or 8.3% while the 6 is 13.8% and if I split the bet between 6 and 8 it is a 27.7% chance to win much less payout per roll. $60 on the point 4 odds pays $120 while I have a three times better chance to win $35 placing $30 on both 6 and 8. So I need to hit 6 or 8 four times before the 7 shows up. I am just suspicious of any time the casino gives away their edge,
Nothing would get done at all, if man waited so long that no one could find fault with it.
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Cagliostro Inner circle 2478 Posts |
Quote:
On Oct 10, 2015, Magic.J.Manuel wrote: They are not giving away their edge. They always retain the edge no matter how you get to it. All one can do is reduce the edge as low as possible and not foolishly make bad bets. |
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