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JasonEngland V.I.P. Las Vegas, NV 1728 Posts |
Quote:
On 2005-06-14 16:26, mago wrote: I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. You don't seem to realize that the two statements above are contradictory. IF you have the odds in your favor EACH TIME, then you WILL or at least should, win in the long run. You can't have it both ways. Something has to give. Either the odds are NOT truly in your favor, or you WILL win. You can't have both. If the odds ARE in your favor each time, then you're in the same position as the casino, and we know they are making money in the long run. Perhaps you really are talking about trivial, fleeting moments akin to having a 20 vs a dealer 16. If you really have a method for gaining a real edge, not a temporary edge that is drowing under other (unmentioned) parameters that eat into your bottom line, then please reveal it here in plain English. If there are no holes in it, then I'll gladly concede. But I'd first give a lot of thought to the fact that you can't have the "odds in your favor EACH TIME" (your words, my emphasis) and still lose in the long run. You have to reconcile those two contradictory statements. JDE Quote:
On 2005-06-14 12:28, bishthemagish wrote: Actually, the odds are two to one against winning. And yes, people do. JDE
Eternal damnation awaits anyone who questions God's unconditional love. --Bill Hicks
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Tom Wolf Special user Harrison, Ohio 580 Posts |
This will be my last comment on turning the odds in your favor, I promise.
We all know John Scarne and his work. I would suggest that those who doubt me, check out John's great book called "Scarne's Complete Guide To Gambling". To make it easier to find my reference, check our pages 298-299, "The Place Betting System". The odds are 4-1, as I have said. I had the pleasure of meeting John in Havana many years ago. Enough now, I am going for a ride in my Corvette. Tom Wolf
The magic director and performer at the Rincon Gaucho supper club in Mexico City,
We opened the first and only close-up room for magic in Mexico with Wolf Ruvinskis. have several new coin vanishes and routines to share shortly just as soon as I can find someone to film them for me. Now living in Harrison, Ohio |
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freed New user 8 Posts |
Regretfully, I don’t own a copy of "Scarne's Complete Guide To Gambling". However, I have been following the post (to comprehend how a former casino employee could make such a ridiculous claim) and I was wondering if anyone would be nice enough to post the circumstances under which the 4 to 1odds exist. Also, what are the odds as an entire game. By that I mean the complete calculated odds from when you walk up to the craps table and when you leave.
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iamslow Inner circle Proffessional Slacker 2001 Posts |
I have been dealing dice since I was 18, and what Jason is saying is correct... I really don't get what Tom or Mago is saying, but they both don't make sense... yes its true, that there are times when a player might be the favourite to win over the house, but having a consistent edge is unheard of... Tom could you pls explain what you mean by the place betting system?? Do you mean placing the point when the point is established instead of betting the line with odds?? pls. let me know what you mean... I was also serious in my last post... its happens a lot and people get away with it quite a bit.
Jon
"Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face" Mike Tyson
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
This might be helpful to anyone who wants to work out the edge.
The mathematical expectation of any bet in any game is computed by multiplying each possible gain or loss by the probability of that gain or loss. For example If you are getting Evens for Heads or Tails = (.5) * (1) + (.5) * (-1) = 0 which means the odds favour no one. If my math is correct. In the roulette example . Betting on two dozen which is 24 winning numbers and 14 loosing numbers it works out thus: (24/38) * (1) + (14/38) * (-2) = -0.10 The odds are in favour of the casino by roughly. 10% In other words if you have this bet laying out $2 each time after 10 goes the probability is that you will be losing $2. You can punch this formula into a spread sheet and it should work out the edge . I think. If you get a positive answer the edge is in your favour. I do not follow what Tom is getting at, mainly because I do not play house games but I am open minded and anyone who puts 10 grand where his mouth is, is worth listening to and I will be checking out what Tom is saying even though it seems wrong to at first sight. I am just kidding here but I am just wondering if he got his $10,000 bucks from the dice table. Tommy
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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iamslow Inner circle Proffessional Slacker 2001 Posts |
Quote:
On 2005-06-14 10:37, mago wrote: I work in a casino, and the house edge in roulette is 5.26 % on all bets except for the 5 line in which the hose has a 7.26% edge... by betting two columns you are correct by covering more numbers, but remember, you are also placing down twice the amount of money in which only one of those bets has a possibility of winning.... and if Jason wont take the bet, I will gladly take on the bet with you and the more worth while, the better.. Jon
"Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face" Mike Tyson
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
I think my math is wrong in the above it should be worked out to a $1 layout:
In the roulette example . Betting on two dozen which is 24 winning numbers and 14 loosing numbers it works out thus: (24/38) * (.5) + (14/38) * (-1) = -0.056 The odds are in favour of the casino by roughly. 5.5%
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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iamslow Inner circle Proffessional Slacker 2001 Posts |
There is also whats called dice setting, but we also welcome dice setters in our casino with open arms as long as the dice hit the back wall... if mago is talking about dice setting, then come on over and I will gladly welcome your bets... the only method I know of breaking the house edge is exactly as I said in my previous post about playing jedi mind tricks... (only dice dealers will know what I mean)its not a system of any sort, but its basically an exploitation of procedure;) There is this man that that has hit a few casinos in the states with this method, and at the last casino he hit, an old friend was dealing to him...this man is african american(could d.o.c. know him??)and he tips very well... he's been barred from a few places, but he just moves on and hits another place...
"Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face" Mike Tyson
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JasonEngland V.I.P. Las Vegas, NV 1728 Posts |
Apparently Tom hasn't been reading my posts very clearly. I've already told him that if you want to stretch the language of the game to ridiculous levels, then you can have an "edge" over the house many times over the course of the evening.
A perfect example is when you're about to roll the dice and you've made a pass-line bet at craps. You have 8 ways to win and only 4 ways to lose on that roll! That's 2 to 1 in your favor!!! Of course, that conveniently ignores what happens when you establish a point (on the other 24 possible outcomes). In that case the odds turn against you and you're yanked back to reality. You see, on the overall wager, there is NO advantage. Tom has also stretched the definitions of "edge" and "odds" to make it seem like there is a good bet to be made by placing every number. He didn't invent the system of course, but he sure likes to tout that it gives you a 4 to 1 winner! The truth is there is NO edge, nor do you have 4 to 1 odds in your favor when placing every number. What you have is 4 to 1 odds in favor of making 3 separate small amounts of money that are completely overshadowed by a 5 to 1 shot of losing all 6 bets. Scarne's example is 6 $300 wagers placed on the 6 numbers (4,5,6,8,9, and 10) for a total of $1800. If you win, you win $540 on the 4 or 10, $420 on the 5 or 9, or $350 on the 6 or 8. You would then call down the remaining 5 bets and walk away with your winnings. Sounds like a dream come true, right? Only if you're dreaming. What Tom conveniently leaves out (but Scarne goes on to explain) is that you just can't ignore the effect of the 7 when it is rolled. It wipes out the entire $1800 at once. The net, overall, no-B.S., no-kidding, here's the real truth and nothing but the truth answer is that you buck a 3.35% DISADVANTAGE on this little scheme. Nice try Tom. Try again. Jason
Eternal damnation awaits anyone who questions God's unconditional love. --Bill Hicks
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iamslow Inner circle Proffessional Slacker 2001 Posts |
Well said Jason!! I don't own the scarne book myself, but I couldn't understand what he meant either... covering all the #'s by making all the placebets will make you broke.... another scenario that people have tried is called hedging in which they for example bet 10 bucks on the don't pass and if the point gets established will balance out the initial 10 bucks by placing either the 5-9 or 4-10 for 5 bucks a piece... I could list a ton of systems that I have come across and still have yet to see one succeed...let me know if Mago still has the bet on the table, because I would like to take the bet...
"Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face" Mike Tyson
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
Right. I read it wrong it is 5.26.
Anyway the formula works even if I do not.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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Tom Wolf Special user Harrison, Ohio 580 Posts |
What none of you understand is that the odds Are 4-1 in your favor just as John Scarne teaches, that you will win in the next roll of the dice.
If you will study his book and elswhere the correct odds af making th 4-10, 5-9,6-8 and the correct odds of making a seven, you will find that by covering all the box numbers at the same time, you now have the odds 4-1 in your favor. As I said previously, if you Continue over time you will lose in the long run. I was speaking of at any one time placing the bet. There is more and I am not teaching that. I have not reason to lie as I am quite wealthy as others know. I just wanted to share a little of what I have learned through the years and apparently all a few of you want to do is argue. That is alright and you are all entitled to your beliefs. Take care all and good by. Tom Wolf
The magic director and performer at the Rincon Gaucho supper club in Mexico City,
We opened the first and only close-up room for magic in Mexico with Wolf Ruvinskis. have several new coin vanishes and routines to share shortly just as soon as I can find someone to film them for me. Now living in Harrison, Ohio |
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Pekka Special user Finland 560 Posts |
Tom, arguing and discussion is completely different things. What people are talking about here are the rules of the games and the mathematics behind them, how can one argue over that. They happen to be the rare breed of universal rules that is not in any way subjective. Look at the rules and do the math, that's it.
Now, the way you do the math and the way you read the rules is open for discussion, but not for an argument. The only problem here is that Jason England, Tommy and whoever calls himself Iamslow are providing thoughtful discussion about the core issues, you just seem to yell that "I am right" with no evidence what so ever. Saying that you are wealthy is not really a proof of authority, is it? I'm wealthy too and don't even know the rules of the game. Keep on talking, this is reallyh interesting! |
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card123 Loyal user Button moon 208 Posts |
If you roll a dice the odds of getting a number is 1 in 6 due to there being six numbers.
So what are the odds of getting a 2 if the dice are controlled even when they hit the backboard. |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
Well Stanford Wong has a book on Dice control or it will be out soon I think you can get now in trancript form but that is expensive.
I know a few sucker bets with dice from Nick Trost Gambling Tricks with Dice also it shows the Blanket Roll and Slide Shot but I have only ever had one bet on the dice table years ago: I asked the dealer how is this played and he gave me the rule sheet which I glanced at. Still not understanding the game put £100 on the pass line and won, picked the 200 bucks and put into my pocket, and dealer said with a smile "It's easy isn't it sir". I know lots of guys who do play dice but I think I am the only winner at the game amoung the guys I know. I have seen guys run up fortunes fast and lose it faster. that's about it with me and dice apart from I play a little Backgammon.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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JasonEngland V.I.P. Las Vegas, NV 1728 Posts |
To anyone following the craps portion of this thread, I'd like to quote from the very chapter that Tom keeps referring to from Scarne's book.
Tom is very wrapped up in the phrase "4 to 1." So much so, that he doesn't realize that with the betting scheme he's discussing, that while it's true you're a 4 to 1 favorite to "win" on one of the numbers, the overall disadvantage any player trying this system is 3.35%, which is roughly four times as bad as simply playing the passline and taking odds. In other words, Tom is the type of guy who would tell you to play every number except 0 on the roulette wheel, and then proudly boast that you have 36 ways to win and only 1 way to lose! He can't see the effect that the occasional losing outcome has on your overall bankroll, and therefore on the evaluation of whether you really have 'the best of it' or not. He seems to equate wining a 'hand' with winning money. They are two different things. I can bet the passline and the don't pass at the same time and 'win' my craps hand almost every roll! But this is a stupid strategy at craps, as any craps player knows. What's the matter with this strategy Tom? Won't I "win" 35 out of 36 hands at the craps table? Sounds like a sure winner in my book! Scarne himself declares the Place Betting System to be for suckers, in so many words. Tom just ignores this, or didn't understand it when he read it. Scarne: This is one of the favorite Craps systems used by some of the so called smart bigtime gamblers. Further down Scarne writes: "To find the fallacy here..." And then finally: "However, when the percentage is computed on the actual money turnover [Jason: instead of on the odds of winning vs losing a hand] the house percentage increases to 3.35%" Those are Scarne's own words on this system. He knew it was a dud when he published the book, I know it's a dud, and now you know it's a dud. For some reason, Tom doesn't know it. But what do I know, he's rich and an ex-casino manager. That makes him infallible...just ask him. JDE
Eternal damnation awaits anyone who questions God's unconditional love. --Bill Hicks
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iamslow Inner circle Proffessional Slacker 2001 Posts |
Quote:
On 2005-06-15 09:42, card123 wrote: Hi card 123, with 2 dice, there are 36 combinations in total.. rolling the snake eyes should come only 1-36 yet you will only get paid 30-1... Now with a controlled dice shot, as long as it hits the back wall on the table, the odds are still 1 in 36... the back wall of the table has a bunch of mini pyramids and is made of rubber... when the dice hit these, it flys in all directions.... there is however a small area at the bottom of the rubber pyramids which is flat and may allow some controlled shots, but this area is about an inch wide... that's if you could hit that area from across the table and at minimum, next to stick on first base.
"Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face" Mike Tyson
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
I did read that the only no edge bet that a casino offers can be found on the craps table.
Anyone want to bet?
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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iamslow Inner circle Proffessional Slacker 2001 Posts |
Ill bet that you are correct!!
"Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face" Mike Tyson
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
“When a point is established either "take" or "lay" the odds. You can receive or lay the true odds on your do or don't bet and pay no percentage. This is the only dead even gamble a casino offers.”
Frank "Lefty" Rosenthal. A guy who knows a little bit about casinos and odds. Paying the percentage is a clear way of looking at casino games: For every $10 you put into action at Roulette you pay 78 cents for the privilege of doing it and the higher the edge in the game the more you pay. I think Tom is not arguing that that is not so. He is merely saying there are certain bets that the casinos do not like. For example according to Frank Rosenthal; “A Casino-Managers nightmare would be a casino full of gamblers betting only pass or don't pass with full odds.” Tommy
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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