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balducci
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On 2008-06-19 19:58, kregg wrote:
Americans drive 4.5 billion fewer miles in April:
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=......rticle=1
Must be why gas prices rose in May. Smile

If you or anyone insists on focusing on America, then in my humble opinion you'll never understand the oil price story. What happens in America is only one piece of the puzzle these days.

So Americans drove somewhat less in April. Your article says that 4.5 billion fewer miles is a reduction of 1.8 percent. Big whoop.

Around the same time, oil use in China rose by 16.5 percent year on year.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-0......5648.htm
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
balducci
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Lobo, as a lawyer you might enjoy reading and critiquing this op-ed story that appeared in the NY Times today. It proposes that the U.S. sue OPEC:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/19/opinion/19evans.html
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
rockwall
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Well, I have to disagree with you once again.

The overwhelming main reason it is so cheap is because President Hugo Chávez' government subsidizes the price of oil and gas in the country so that it retails for much less than a quarter of its real market price:

If the U.S. subsidized the price of gas at the pump by 80% or more, you would have cheap gas too!


Hmmm, so it'a about 25% of what the actual cost should be? So that means a tank of gas SHOULD cost 160p to 200p to fill a 4X4? And from the article that would equal what? 4 cups of coffee instead of 1? Wow, I guess you're right, the cheap prices are totally because of subsidies.
LobowolfXXX
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On 2008-06-19 19:23, balducci wrote:
Quote:
On 2008-06-19 17:17, rockwall wrote:
Quote:
On 2008-06-18 15:32, Chessmann wrote:
I just got back from a trip to Venezuela. Here in the states I drive a VW Jetta, diesel. It costs about $60 for a fill-up.

In Venezuela, I could fill it up for between 1-2 dollars. The whole tank!


And do you know why that is? It's because about 80% of their energy is provided through off shore drilling.

Well, I have to disagree with you once again.

The overwhelming main reason it is so cheap is because President Hugo Chávez' government subsidizes the price of oil and gas in the country so that it retails for much less than a quarter of its real market price:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jan/18/oil.venezuela

If the U.S. subsidized the price of gas at the pump by 80% or more, you would have cheap gas too!


Are the two reasons entirely distinct? What I mean by that is, if offshore drilling weren't so extensive, would the government subsidize it?
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
rockwall
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Are the two reasons entirely distinct? What I mean by that is, if offshore drilling weren't so extensive, would the government subsidize it?


I agree with that and actually started to phrase my response as the fact that it was probably a combination. Then I started to do the math and realized that even if the governement wasn't subsidizing it by as much as the article claims, the price would still be ridiculously low. (All based on examples from the article. I don't actually know what 42p IS in American dollars. The quick google search I was doing talked about Venezuela currency being Bolivars. I'm assuming that p is a fraction of that like pennies to dollars? Not sure, if someone does know or wants to spend more time with google than I did, please speak up.)
Decomposed
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Still $3.87 a gal close to house. But for how long? Thinking of heading to Home Depot and get me some equipment to drill in my backyard. Either that or burying an underground tank somewhere back there.
balducci
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On 2008-06-19 23:02, LobowolfXXX wrote:

Are the two reasons entirely distinct? What I mean by that is, if offshore drilling weren't so extensive, would the government subsidize it?

I'm afraid I do not entirely understand your question ... ???

However, I have to ask, does anyone here know just how extensive Venezuela's off shore drilling really is?

This article (possibly a year or two out of date) says that Venezuela is rich in oil and gas but has no offshore production outside of the relatively small Lake Maracaibo region:

http://www.energyfiles.com/americas/venezuela.html

This article from 2007 says that the first Venezuelan offshore oil well located out to sea was going to start towards the end of last year:

http://www.conapri.org/English/ArticleDe......d2=15049

This article also confirms that Venezuela’s first offshore oil well (out to sea) was going to get started in 2007:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Venezuela/Oil.html

"PdVSA has stated that it will bring Corocoro onstream by the end of 2007. Corocoro would represent Venezuela’s first offshore oil production."

But from this link it sounds as though Corocoro just came onstream a month or two ago:

http://www.energycurrent.com/index.php?id=2&storyid=10209

All in all, it sounds as though Venezuela has exploited very little of its off shore capacity.

I wonder, is it possible you are confusing Venezuela with Brazil (which I believe DOES have considerable off shore oil production)?
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
kregg
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On 2008-06-19 20:06, balducci wrote:
Quote:
On 2008-06-19 19:58, kregg wrote:
Americans drive 4.5 billion fewer miles in April:
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=......rticle=1
Must be why gas prices rose in May. Smile

So Americans drove somewhat less in April. Your article says that 4.5 billion fewer miles is a reduction of 1.8 percent. Big whoop.

Around the same time, oil use in China rose by 16.5 percent year on year.


1.8 percent reduction is HUGE considering the average size of our cars and trucks compared to the playmobiles of other countries. Second, how about a little perspective: USA 20,730,000 bbl/day, China 6,534,000 bbl/day.
POOF!
rockwall
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Went back to the article and realized that it's a British article and they are using British money for the example. So basically, they are saying that it costs 42 British pence to fill up a SUV's tank. (I think that converts to about 82 cents in US) That's for a FULL TANK OF GAS FOR AN SUV! So, even if the government subsidy is keeping it at 1/4 it's actual cost, we're talking about $3.50 to fill up your tank! Less than the current cost for 1 gallon of gas. Please, if I'm making an error in the calculation, please point it out.
rockwall
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I wonder, is it possible you are confusing Venezuela with Brazil (which I believe DOES have considerable off shore oil production)?


Hmmm, yes, very possible but I don't think that changes anything. The article stated that they are primarily an oil exporter nation, not an importer. So the oil they use is home grown and that's why it's as cheap as it is. Check the price of gas in Saudi Arabia. Nations all over the globe are looking for oil and many are starting drilling off shore, including China which has leased an offshore oil field from Cuba about 50-60 miles off the Florida coast. I don't hear China saying, "what's the use? It'll take 10 years before we can use it." We'll be using oil for much longer than the next 10 years.

I'm ALL for finding alternatives but complete conversion to ANY alternative is likely to be MUCH farther out than 10 years. In the meantime, I'd hate to see the World economy crash completely because of refusal to act now.
balducci
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On 2008-06-19 23:33, kregg wrote:

1.8 percent reduction is HUGE considering the average size of our cars and trucks compared to the playmobiles of other countries. Second, how about a little perspective: USA 20,730,000 bbl/day, China 6,534,000 bbl/day.

Yes, but it's only a 1.8 percent reduction in the amount of oil used to produce gas used in cars and trucks.

USA 20,730,000 bbl/day, but only a fraction of that is used for gas.

But let's assume it all goes towards gas for cars.

I'll use your bbl/day figures. Check this:

1.8% times USA's 20,730,000 bbl/day = 373,140 bbl/day savings in the USA

16.5% times China's 6,534,000 bbl/day = 1,078,110 extra demand in China

So, like I said, big whoop. China's increased demand more than makes up for the demand destruction recently seen in the USA. All this might change in the future, of course.
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
balducci
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On 2008-06-19 23:40, rockwall wrote:

I'm ALL for finding alternatives but complete conversion to ANY alternative is likely to be MUCH farther out than 10 years. In the meantime, I'd hate to see the World economy crash completely because of refusal to act now.

Oh, hey, probably 25% or more of my personal wealth (outside of my home) is directly invested in oil and related industries. So I am all for increased drilling etc.

I just think some of the proposals in the news recently are dog and pony show stuff to calm the masses.

A number of people / networks were reporting today that the oil companies in the U.S. _already_ have rights to 68 million acres of federal land containing 14 years or more of oil supply, which are presently going undeveloped by choice on the part of the oil companies.
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
rockwall
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A number of people / networks were reporting today that the oil companies in the U.S. _already_ have rights to 68 million acres of federal land containing 14 years or more of oil supply, which are presently going undeveloped by choice on the part of the oil companies.

The only thing that's being reported is what some Democrat congressmen have said. I'd lover to read an analysis on that statement. My 'suspicion' is that if they it's undeveloped, there's a reason like federal laws and hoops make it too difficult. I really don't know. If they do have 14 years or more of oil supply in those lands, why would they want more opened up. Is it cheaper to access in the lands they want opened up or what? I'd like to know.
balducci
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[quote]On 2008-06-20 00:23, rockwall wrote:

The only thing that's being reported is what some Democrat congressmen have said. I'd lover to read an analysis on that statement.
TRY HERE.

"Separate studies by the House Committee on Natural Resources and the Wilderness Society, a conservation group, show that roughly three-quarters of the 90 million-plus acres of federal land being leased by the oil companies onshore and off are not being used to produce energy. That is 68 million acres altogether, among them potentially highly productive leases in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska."

So I suppose you can google for those two studies if you want to read further.

Actually, this may be the BLM report right here:
TRY HERE.

Or the Executive Summary anyway. You have the title, I think the main report should be easy to find now.
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
LobowolfXXX
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On 2008-06-19 23:33, rockwall wrote:
Went back to the article and realized that it's a British article and they are using British money for the example. So basically, they are saying that it costs 42 British pence to fill up a SUV's tank. (I think that converts to about 82 cents in US) That's for a FULL TANK OF GAS FOR AN SUV! So, even if the government subsidy is keeping it at 1/4 it's actual cost, we're talking about $3.50 to fill up your tank! Less than the current cost for 1 gallon of gas. Please, if I'm making an error in the calculation, please point it out.



I'm showing average Venezuelan income at something like 1/8 of average American income, so bear in mind that getting $3.50 in Venezuela is like getting $25-$30 or so in the USA.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
kregg
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On 2008-06-19 23:41, balducci wrote:
Quote:
On 2008-06-19 23:33, kregg wrote:

1.8 percent reduction is HUGE considering the average size of our cars and trucks compared to the playmobiles of other countries. Second, how about a little perspective: USA 20,730,000 bbl/day, China 6,534,000 bbl/day.

Yes, but it's only a 1.8 percent reduction in the amount of oil used to produce gas used in cars and trucks.

1.8 percent is for gasoline, not oil. A barrel (42 gallons) of crude yields 20 gallons of gasoline. We have also added 10% ethanol to our gas; this inflated grain prices too. Add in the cost of the other additives and presto. The profits (8%) seen by the oil companies are not historic by percent, but by volume. Countries selling refined gasoline to the US benefit from our weaker dollar. The oil companies may be engaging in a bit of trade speculation to force up barrel price. It is very well likely that they aren't buying as much oil; instead using what they have in storage. Otherwise, their profits would be lower across the board. If China is buying extra barrels at market price they haven't learned the meaning, "buy low, sell high" (we in the west own most of the oil companies).
POOF!
balducci
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On 2008-06-20 08:58, kregg wrote:
Quote:
On 2008-06-19 23:41, balducci wrote:
Quote:
On 2008-06-19 23:33, kregg wrote:

1.8 percent reduction is HUGE considering the average size of our cars and trucks compared to the playmobiles of other countries. Second, how about a little perspective: USA 20,730,000 bbl/day, China 6,534,000 bbl/day.

Yes, but it's only a 1.8 percent reduction in the amount of oil used to produce gas used in cars and trucks.

1.8 percent is for gasoline, not oil. A barrel (42 gallons) of crude yields 20 gallons of gasoline. We have also added 10% ethanol to our gas; this inflated grain prices too. Add in the cost of the other additives and presto. The profits (8%) seen by the oil companies are not historic by percent, but by volume. Countries selling refined gasoline to the US benefit from our weaker dollar. The oil companies may be engaging in a bit of trade speculation to force up barrel price. It is very well likely that they aren't buying as much oil; instead using what they have in storage. Otherwise, their profits would be lower across the board. If China is buying extra barrels at market price they haven't learned the meaning, "buy low, sell high" (we in the west own most of the oil companies).

Okay, you don't seem to have commented on the rest of my post. So I take it you now agree with me now that the savings in the U.S. you identified was swamped by the extra demand in China over the same period?

You say "we in the west own most of the oil companies".

If you have the time and care to do so, could you explain to me what you mean by that?

Do you mean that most of the oil companies in the world are Western-based ... well, you might be right but I don't see how it matters.

The number of companies doesn't matter much in itself. There might be more companies, but most of them might be tiny and insignificant in size.

In fact, most and all of the largest oil companies in the world are State-owned.

Check out this wikipedia article:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supermajor

Note that the six largest, non state-owned energy companies in the world (this list may be a bit out of date, but it is good enough for discussion's sake) are:

* ExxonMobil (XOM)
* BP (BP)
* Royal Dutch Shell (RDS)
* Total S.A. (TOT)
* Chevron Corporation (CVX)
* ConocoPhillips (COP)

But, get this, together they only control 5% of global oil and gas reserves!

And, as far as all oil companies in the world goes, ExxonMobil is only the the 14th largest in the world!

In other words, most (95%) of the oil supply is controlled by, and the 13 largest oil companies in the world are all, state-owned companies.

So, as you said, we in the West might (?) own most of the oil companies, but they are relative pipsqueaks in size compared to the State-owned oil companies in the world, and the Western companies control only a tiny amount of the world's oil reserves.
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
rockwall
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Quote:
On 2008-06-20 00:40, balducci wrote:
Quote:
On 2008-06-20 00:23, rockwall wrote:

The only thing that's being reported is what some Democrat congressmen have said. I'd lover to read an analysis on that statement.

TRY HERE.

...

Actually, this may be the BLM report right here:
TRY HERE.


Thanks for the links.
I read the opinion piece in the NYTimes first. His biases were obvious and left me wondering how accurate the piece was based on those biases or how much he was 'slanting' his information to fit his thinking.

So, I went to the 2nd link which was the BLM Executive summary and found a very interesting line at the end of the study which seems to be ignored by NYTimes article writer.

"Approximately 17 percent of the Federal land in these areas (48.0 million acres) is
accessible under standard lease terms. Based on resource estimates, these lands
contain 8 percent of the oil (2.3 billion barrels) and 10 percent of the gas (23.6 trillion cubic feet)."

In other words, when the Congressmen or the NYTimes article writer claim that the oil companies have access to 30billion barrels of oil on existing lease property, they actually only have access to 2.3 billion barrels.
kregg
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"Okay, you don't seem to have commented on the rest of my post. So I take it you now agree with me now that the savings in the U.S. you identified was swamped by the extra demand in China over the same period?"

It means that China is banking on expanding their reserves by purchasing at an all time high, as we in the west are changing our behavior. As we search for options to limit our dependence on a single source of energy 1.8 percent in a single month(!), during the school year no less, is a big sign of that behavioral shift. Meanwhile, the oil companies are pumping more money out of China and this makes shareholders very happy. As this money comes back in we need to shred it and raise interest rates.

You say "we in the west own most of the oil companies".

"If you have the time and care to do so, could you explain to me what you mean by that?"

Technically every sovereign nation own their mineral rights. But, the companies are responsible for bringing the product to market through outside contractors.

"Do you mean that most of the oil companies in the world are Western-based ... well, you might be right but I don't see how it matters."

It matters because they are publicly traded and held by stockholders ... that's you and me partner.
POOF!
balducci
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On 2008-06-07 22:57, balducci wrote:
Yes, Boone Pickens is a very smart man - at least on matters of energy (which are the only opinions of his I know anything about).

Here is another interview with him, talking about renewable energy:

http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/126/......ge=0%2C1

Whoa! What a guy. You've gotta love T Boone:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/s......nal/home

For the life of me, I never realised (or perhaps I'd forgotten) that he used to live in Calgary, Canada.
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
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