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The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » Puzzle me this... » » What are the odds - Again? (0 Likes) Printer Friendly Version

magicjohn2278
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Isle of Man UK
536 Posts

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As we walk in the park, meeting various dog-owners, I bet my friend $10, that I can guess the sex of three dogs that we meet, in order, before he can.

He agrees.

For simplicity, I choose MMM. After all, I know that the chances of "the next dog" being M or F aren't influenced by the sex of the previous one.

He chooses FMM, and we set off in search of dogs.

As I am looking anywhere in the sequence of the dogs that we meet for three males in a row in any order, and he has to see FMM in that order to win, I figure that I have made a wise bet….. Have I?

( If we see MMFMMM…… he wins when we meet the fifth dog, remember we are not looking at groups of three.)
stanalger
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St. Louis, MO
996 Posts

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The odds in favor of your friend winning are 7 to 1.

You should have let him choose first.
TomasB
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Inner circle
Sweden
1143 Posts

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Next problem: If your friend chooses first, what is a good way to create your own choice?

/Tomas
LobowolfXXX
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La Famiglia
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Ooooh, no answer to this one yet?! If his choice, in order, is ABC, then your choice, in order, should be: (opposite of B) (A) (B).
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
TomasB
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Sweden
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Good Wolf! That's the algorithm I had in mind.

/Tomas
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