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Profile of Blue_Bike
Heya all, I know I'm a new member and all but I'm writing an in-depth article of sorts that could be critiqued for revision or possibly put into some kind of wiki.

What I have so far:

-X% chance you will fail after dealing Y number of hands
-Maximizing (Expected Value)/(Risk)
-Comparision of a cheating winrate to non-cheating winrates

Since I am new member please forgive me if I butcher some/all of this or if information like this is already common knowledge from some essential book or video.

Could be a day or two.
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Devil’s Island
15821 Posts

Profile of tommy
I am not sure what you mean. It seems your trying to give cheating some kind of math formula.

Firstly I hold the non-cheating win rate is zero. That is given average luck you will finish level.

The cardsharps win rate is undeterminable. It is dependent on the application of untold methods and so on.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

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Profile of gump
I'm confused here as well. For example, when you say:

"X% chance you will fail after dealing Y number of hands"

do you mean "X% chance you will get caught cheating after dealing Y number of hands"?

And since I'm not a statistician, could you fill me in on how you might come about with some of these numbers, sample size, etc (I wouldn't expect too many cheats to be all that motivated for sharing this kind of info)..?
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Profile of Blue_Bike
Most of this will be under particular circumstances since there are many outside variables that would make many of these types of calculations impossible. When I release this I hope to get lots of (hopefully constructive) criticism so that I can go back and make revisions. I think I'm going to try to write an excel spreadsheet or perhaps a visual basic app to go along with this.

Here's a sample of what I have:

Here's the formula for chance of failure after a # of attempts:

X = odds of success of a cheating move
Y = # of attempts of a cheating move
Z = % Chance of having at least 1 failed attempt of a cheating move

(1 - (X^Y)) = Z

Heres another formula using the same variables to find how many hands it will take to reach the desired failure % chance.

(ln(1-(Z/100))/ln(X))) = Y


X = (999/1000 or .999)
Y = 692
Z = Chance of failure

.999^692 = %50

Here I want to find out what my failure rate will be after 692 attempts with my success rate of 99.9% for each move. I find out that after a sample of 692 attempts I have a 50% chance of failing on at least one of the moves.

(ln(1-(33/100))/ln(.999))) = 400 hands

So here I want to know that with my success rate of 99.9% how many hands it will take for me to have a 33% of failing. I find the answer to be 400 hands.

There's some of the theory I have so far. I working on creating some more theory ( that is less "concrete") along with practical applications.

I think this should help:

Emerging cardsharks

- Help them to understand how good they need to be with a move if they plan on using it in a game.

Current cardsharks

- Help them to understand how they can maximize their winnings in a game they'd like to play in regularly with cheating along with how to maximize their winnings in a game where they only plan playing once.
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Profile of JasonEngland

With absolutely no offence intended, the first thing you should calculate is the chances that your end product will be of use to anyone, yourself included.

Your idea of helping 'emerging cardsharks' is of little value. The true answer to the question of "how good do you need to be" is dependent on too many variables for any "plug and play" formula to be of use.

Your second idea is closer to being realistic. You can certainly compare various techniques using mathematical ****ysis, but the formulas are more complex than what you've depicted here. Suffice to say that if you're willing to grind out small amounts over time (and letting them add up to a larger score over that period) then you can play with a smaller edge. There are dozens of weaker plays that might fit the bill and are within the reach of most players with a bit of practice.

If you need all of the money tonight, then you'll need a sledgehammer of a move, and you run the risk of killing the proverbial golden goose. But hey, maybe you'll never see those guys again and it's worth it to take your big shot in the short run.


A much more useful set of numbers would be to gain proficiency at a given technique, determine how profitable it will be, and then compare that number to other moves. (The first measurement may indeed capture some of the information you've mentioned above.)

For instance, a dealer in a game of Hold 'em can memorize a slug of cards, shuffle and carry the slug, and position it with the shuffles and cuts to fall in the vicinity of the flop, turn, and river. If the slug begins to appear at any of those points, he can perhaps use that information to his advantage.

Or...a dealer could take that same memorized slug and bring/keep it on top of the deck. The final riffle could interlace these cards only in the upper fourth of the deck which would then be cut away and out of play. (Think about the strength of K-K if you know that 3 aces are buried at the bottom of the deck, and can't possibly be in any of your opponents' hands. Likewise, how do you like your Queen-high flush if you know the Ace and King of that suit are effectively out of play?)

Which move is stronger? Knowing a few cards that might land on the flop, turn or river? Or knowing that certain cards absolutely will not appear in any players' hand?

Are either of these moves stronger than playing with marked cards? (Again, there is no simple answer to this last question...marked cards can be slow-played for long-term profits like any other technique, or you can try and crush your opponents with them, though this doesn't always work.)

Food for thought...

Eternal damnation awaits anyone who questions God's unconditional love. --Bill Hicks
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Profile of Blue_Bike
Thanks for the thoughts and critiques. I don't plan on selling this, it's more for me and anyone else who wants to read it.

Please keep in mind most of this is theory under exact circumstances. I realize that there are many variables that won't be taken into effect. I do believe that formulas like the ones that I've posted will be helpful. Will they be exact? No. Will they take into account the fact that most people will mess up in live games more than in when practicing alone or that a butterfly's wings could cause a long chain of events that will make the mechanic fail? No.

I do like like your idea of comparing various techniques profitability to others. I'd also like to do comparative risk ****ysis of different moves and techniques. Unfortunately my expertise is very limited at this point in time so much of this is not possible. I think it may take much longer than I had anticipated to release this material because I want to add this and more in.

I do appreciate the criticism and anything else anyone would like to see please let me know.
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