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LobowolfXXX Inner circle La Famiglia 1192 Posts 
Quote:
On 20090130 17:56, S2000magician wrote: On the other hand...in a normal restricted choice sort of setup, if he plays the queen and jack with equal probability, his opponent will be right 2/3 of the time regardless of which card he plays, by assuming that his partner has the other one. If he always plays the jack from QJ, even if his opponent knows it, the declarer will be right 100% of the time he plays the queen, but only 50% of the time he plays the jack (twice as often), for the same over 2/3 success rate (100+50+50)/(3 cases with equal probability of occurrence).
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley. "...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us." 

S2000magician Inner circle Yorba Linda, CA 3465 Posts 
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On 20090130 18:03, LobowolfXXX wrote: What a rarity: meeting someone here who truly understands bridge. I cringe every time I see a magician deal a perfect bridge hand, and the cards are in order: A, 2, 3, 4, . . ., J, Q, K. 

LobowolfXXX Inner circle La Famiglia 1192 Posts 
Quote:
On 20090130 18:14, S2000magician wrote: lol The problem with knowing anything about a subject is that it really ratchets up that ol' cringe factor when you see that subject portrayed in other contexts (usually movies, but I know what you mean about magic, too). I used to own a bridge club in California, and I've also directed tournaments for the American Contract Bridge League from the local level up to a few nationals. Also done some teaching, lecturing, etc. I stopped directing when I went to law school, but even now that I'm practicing, I still have a few students on the side. Love watching that light go off in the ones who are really interested in learning more about the different facets of the game. (Of course, I also like having some side money for those student loans!)
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley. "...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us." 

JasonEngland V.I.P. Las Vegas, NV 1692 Posts 
Quote:
I cringe every time I see a magician deal a perfect bridge hand, and the cards are in order: A, 2, 3, 4, . . ., J, Q, K. I do this all the time for nonBridge players. It's an aesthetic choice that makes sense theatrically. If you see me at the Castle, this is almost always the way I'd present it. If you see me in front of any serious Bridge players or at the local Bridge club doing the same demonstration (something I've only done once before), then I assure you the Ace will follow the King. Jason
Eternal damnation awaits anyone who questions God's unconditional love. Bill Hicks


S2000magician Inner circle Yorba Linda, CA 3465 Posts 
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On 20090130 19:28, JasonEngland wrote: There's a big difference between someone (such as you) doing it consciously, and those who haven't a clue. I once saw an extremely wellknown magician perform a gambling routine, finishing with four perfect bridge hands; it was clear from his patter that the gentleman knew nothing about the game. His audience might not have cared, but he should have cared. Sigh. 

sean_mh Loyal user 229 Posts 
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On 20090109 15:41, Lemniscate wrote: Prior knowledge does indeed change probabilities. This is the basis of the concept of Conditional Probabilities: P(AB) (The probability that the event A will occur, GIVEN THAT we know event B has occurred). If knowledge of event B does NOT change the probability of A occurring, ie. P(AB) = P(A), events A and B are said to be INDEPENDENT. The problems in this thread are all examples of conditional probabilities. In fact, when I teach this topic in my Probability and Stats courses, we always analyse the Monty Hall problem Sean 

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