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The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » Shuffled not Stirred » » Out Of This World odds (3 Likes) Printer Friendly Version

jake.o
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Hi, I was wondering if any one knew the the odds for Out Of This World and whether or not it is better to keep them out or to include them, thanks.
WilburrUK
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Assuming you mean a presentation where (in all, by the end) you (the performer) has put 4 cards face-up and the spec has got the remaining 48 correct, and further assuming that the spec. placed the correct number of cards in each pile:

one in 48!/(24!*24!) = (roughly) 32,000,000,000,000 (one in 32 trillion).

As for whether it's best to include this info. My preference is not to, but I can imagine presentations where it's Ok.
Fred Johnson
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The chances of getting every card in the correct position is astronomical, that sounds like a good presentational point to me, unbelievable.
jake.o
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I didn't relise it was that high. maybe ill just leave the odds out and let the spectators relise how impossible it is by them selfs.
Jonathan Smith
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The bigger the odds the more unbelieveable the outcome.
Nick Pudar
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I calculate 2^48th power as 281 trillion. WilburUK, did you do the full reduction for the number of actual reds and blacks remaining in the deck? I'm curious about how you calculated it.
Nick
Let me explain. No, there is too much. Let me sum up.
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S2000magician
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Quote:
On 2009-02-14 14:04, Nick Pudar wrote:
I calculate 2^48th power as 281 trillion. WilburUK, did you do the full reduction for the number of actual reds and blacks remaining in the deck? I'm curious about how you calculated it.

This calculation allows for there to be different numbers of cards in the "red" pile and the "black" pile; WilburUK specifically assumed that there are 24 cards in the "red" pile and 24 cards in the "black" pile. Thus, the spectator is essentially just deciding which 24 of the 48 remaining cards go in the "red" pile; there are 32,247,603,683,100 ways of doing that.
WilburrUK
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Yep, what s2000Magician said.
Lawrence O
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Just for you not to have to search or be approximative in your instructions:

The odds are 247,959,266,474,051 to 1 against dealing 52 cards into two equal piles and having one pile contain all of the reds and the other all of the blacks.

In U.S. English, that's two hundred forty seven trillion, nine hundred fifty nine billion, two hundred sixty six million, four hundred seventy four thousand, fifty one to one against, or no way in hell.

In traditional stuffy British English, that's two hundred forty seven billion, nine hundred fifty nine milliard, two hundred sixty six million, four hundred seventy four thousand, fifty one to one against, or not bloody likely mate.
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edh
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Sounds like the same odds of winning the lottery. Smile

Lawrence, where does the term "milliard" come from? That's a new to me.
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S2000magician
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On 2009-03-11 21:38, edh wrote:
. . . where does the term "milliard" come from?

In Britain, one milliard is one thousand million (10^9), and one billion is one million million (10^12). However, the British have generally adopted the (originally American, I believe) convention of one billion being 10^9 and one trillion being 10^12.
Scott F. Guinn
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Quote:
On 2009-03-11 18:31, Lawrence O wrote:
The odds are 247,959,266,474,051 to 1 against dealing 52 cards into two equal piles and having one pile contain all of the reds and the other all of the blacks.

In U.S. English, that's two hundred forty seven trillion, nine hundred fifty nine billion, two hundred sixty six million, four hundred seventy four thousand, fifty one to one against


...so you're sayin' there's a chance!

("Dumb & Dumber" reference--sorry, couldn't resist!)
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Lawrence O
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Actually Scott, you are supplying a very nice theme for an original OOTW presentation.

State the odds and explain that you proposed a casino to put a gambling table in place where the odds in favor of the players would be 247,959,266,474,051 to 1. Naturally the casino thought the proposal was stupid, but the magician showed them:

The cards are shuffled: cut the deck between the red and the blacks and ask one of the players to do an overhand or Haymo shuffle with half the deck stating that this is the way people shuffle in Europe. State then that the casino in the USA used to prefer to make a Riffle Shuffle: do it making sure to bend the cards to let them cascade down. Now explain that some dealers were cheating and that the casinos now spread the cards on to the table and mix them face down: take back the (unbent) half from the spectator and add it to your bent half and start spreading them face down on to the table mixing them with a big wide move (like in Sldini's helicopter card). Ask two spectators to carry the mixing through to their heart's content. When they are satisfied that the cards are mixed gather them, square them and place them in a short ribbon (going towards you) in front of you.

Now with a spectator to your right and one to your left give the bent cards to one spectator asking him to place them either to his right if he wants the card to be black or to his left if he wants the card to be red. Naturally when the card is unbent, give it to the other spectator asking him to do the same separation on his side.

As you give them the cards, explain the odds of the spectators to win against the casino: if the cards are mixed, even only one card, the casion looses.

Once the cards are dealt, explain that to avoid any connivence between the casino and one of the players, the player on your left can exchange face down cards from left to right, or right to left, in the other player's piles (he is mixing red cards in red cards). Similarly the player on the right can exchange face down cards from left to right, or right to left, in the other player's piles (he is mixing black cards into black cards).

Remind that with this last mixing the chances that the casino could win are really 1 to 247,959,266,474,051 but!... maybe the casino could have done a deal with one of the players. So now ask what two of the piles they would want to exchange BETWEEN THE PLAYERS for the casino not to stand a chance of connivence with one of them (you are actually exchanging a red pile for a black pile, completing the perfect split but presenting this as a further mixing of the cards). If the piles which were exchanged do not correspond to the color side initially chosen by one or both of the spectators, it's not a problem: just ask the other spectator "to mix things further" to switch the two piles of his co-player.

Now as Scott suggested (not so dumb) "you're sayin' there's a chance!" ok only over 247,959,266,474,051, ok even though the spectators mixed the cards themselves until the very last moment but there is a chance!

Ask each of the players to turn himself one of his pile face up, then to one of them to turn his other pile face up and, finally, the last one to turn his pile face up

Underline that the casino doesn't have to touch the cards which were mixed by them up to the last moment, but is offering a very attractive game with odds of 247,959,266,474,051 to one in favor of the players and still wins... and yet they refused to buy the game from you: Dumb & Dumber!
Magic is the art of proving impossible things in parallel dimensions that can't be reached
Lawrence O
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I've modified the routine just above. By using a Boris Wild marked deck. It is possible to allow the spectators to shuffle each half of the deck and then the entire deck together. The performer seems not to really touch the cards: he simply gives them to the spectator on the right or on the left.
With the shuffling all along it is really devastating
Magic is the art of proving impossible things in parallel dimensions that can't be reached
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