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The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » Magical equations » » Odds Question With Playing Cards (0 Likes) Printer Friendly Version

Scott Imler
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Calgary, Canada
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Hi guys I am creating an effect in which the patter is listing the odds of random events with a deck of cards actually happening. For example the odds that I can name a card that someone is thinking of would be 1 in 52.

I have a few other scenarios that I would like to get the odds for.

What are the odds that if two people select a card from a deck that the two cards would be mates? For example one picks the 3 of hearts and the other the 3 of Diamonds. Same value and color.

Finally what would the odds of me predicting TWO cards selected at random from a deck.

Thanks in advance .


Scott
stanalger
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St. Louis, MO
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Quote:
On 2009-04-21 12:14, Scott Imler wrote:

What are the odds that if two people select a card from a deck that the two cards would be mates? For example one picks the 3 of hearts and the other the 3 of Diamonds. Same value and color.


Odds in favor of a match: 1 to 50
Odds against a match: 50 to 1
Probability of a match: 1/51

Quote:
Finally what would the odds of me predicting TWO cards selected at random from a deck.


If you just name two cards, the probability of correctly naming the two chosen cards
is 1/1326. (So the odds against success are 1325 to 1.)
If two different people have chosen cards and you name one card for each person,
the probability of being correct in both cases is 1/2652. (Odds against success are
2651 to 1.)
Scott Cram
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Scott - pay close attention to not only the probabilities and odds give you, but also the way in which he stated them. Odds and probabilities are stated in different ways. If you were to say the probability of the chosen cards being mates was 1 to 50, you'd instantly lose anyone who knows anything about probabilities, statistics and/or gambling. Living in Las Vegas, stating odds and probabilities incorrectly is one of my biggest pet peeves.

Stan, while your probabilities and odds calculations are correct, what do you think of exaggerating the odds in a performance? For example, the odds against two cards being mates are indeed 50 to 1, what do you think of making it sound more challenging by saying, "You could have chosen any one of 52 cards, and you had a free choice of any of the remaining 51, so the probability of picking two cards that are mates is greater than 1 in 2600!"?
stanalger
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Scott Cram,

Exaggerating/misstating odds/probabilities is cool...if you can get away with it.
Know your audience.

But saying that "the probability of picking two cards that are mates is greater
than 1 in 2600 factorial" is a not a lie. It's true! The probability IS
greater. Quite a bit greater. Smile

(I assume "probability is 1 IN 3" means "probability is 1/3." Is that standard
terminology?)
Scott Imler
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Calgary, Canada
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Thanks guys this is more for patter than actual precision I just wanted to be at least in the ballpark and as Scott mentioned want to know how much I could bend the rules by exaggerating slightly!
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