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splice
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Quick question for those who know about this. Where would an aspiring sports bettor start learning? Say, someone who can follow the game when it's on TV, but not a stats guy so far. Where do you learn everything you need to know to bet intelligently? I heard of "Sharp Sports Betting" by Wong and "Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting" by King Yao, would those be a good start? Anything to supplement them?

Mostly thinking of hockey and football so far. Many thanks for any help you can provide.
LobowolfXXX
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Sorry, wrong sport(s), but I have to put in a plug for Larry Seidel's book, "Investing in College Basketball." Very, very good. Also, I'm about 75 pages into writing a book about betting on boxing. I'm not sure about hockey. I think Dan Gordon's "Beat the Sports Books" is a pretty good pro football betting book. Check online resources, too. The discussion forums at http://www.sportsmemo.com are very good. Gamblers Book Club (dot com) publishes and sells a variety of sports betting books covering almost all areas (hopefully they'll like my boxing book, and I can take out the "almost")
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
Dannydoyle
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Hockey is TOUGH to bet.

The swings in sports betting can be very very wild. I would check out GBC for sure.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
iamslow
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HEy Lobo, let me know when you get the boxing book done as I am very interested... do you know anything about betting on MMA??
"Everyone is tough till they get punched in the face" Mike Tyson
LobowolfXXX
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Thanks for the pre-support...I'll definitely be pimping it hard on the Café. lol

I know nothing about betting on MMA. Too bad...it would make for a longer (and better) book.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
MickeyPainless
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Put me down for a early signed copy brother!

MMc
tommy
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My uncle was or is professional sports better . He said its no good knowing a lot, you have got to know more that everyone.

All sports have a crooked element in them, called people. Get to know the people and you have chance. At the same time you have know about Handicapping. Bookmaking etc and so on. The chances of becoming a true pro is millions to 1. Of course you meet or here on the internet fellows that say they make a living at it and you may believe them you pleases. Better to learn bookmaking and take the bets.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
acesover
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I love professional sports bettors. When you figure out your system contact me and I will take your wagers with the betting line and odds.

I do not want to start a debate here but I will take your wagers and we can let all here see the results after a few hundred wagers. Or for that matter no (Monetary) wagers just after a few hundred (simulated) wagers let all here see the results aganist a book.

Again I do not want to be drawn into an arguement here. I am just making an informed comment about betting sports and making a profit. I have not seen it done and I have seen individuals trying for over 30 years. Have I seen winning streaks? Absoutely. Have I seen those winning streaks continue and over the long run be a consistent winner? No. All the systems succum to the odds over the long run. As has been said..."DO THE MATH".
If I were to agree with you. Then we would both be wrong. As of Apr 5, 2015 10:26 pm I have 880 posts. Used to have over 1,000
acesover
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Oh heck. I tried to pull my above post but it was already read. I do not want to get into another p1$$1#& contest here. If anyone can delete that post please do so.
If I were to agree with you. Then we would both be wrong. As of Apr 5, 2015 10:26 pm I have 880 posts. Used to have over 1,000
silverking
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Nothing further to see here.

One of those "definitive statement" errors that we've all been known to make now and then Smile
splice
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Quote:
On 2009-11-16 09:55, acesover wrote:
I have not seen it done and I have seen individuals trying for over 30 years.


Well then, that settles that, right?

Oh wait, except for those people I know of that are beating the games to the tune of many dollars over thousands of games and over years... But if you, yourself, haven't seen it, it must be false.

If anything I found out who I should talk to about sports betting. Don't worry, it ain't you.
tommy
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These people you know of that are beating the games to the tune of many dollars over thousands of games and over years... Why don't you go and ask them where you start?
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
acesover
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Quote:
On 2009-11-16 16:25, splice wrote:
Quote:
On 2009-11-16 09:55, acesover wrote:
I have not seen it done and I have seen individuals trying for over 30 years.


Well then, that settles that, right?

Oh wait, except for those people I know of that are beating the games to the tune of many dollars over thousands of games and over years... But if you, yourself, haven't seen it, it must be false.

If anything I found out who I should talk to about sports betting. Don't worry, it ain't you.


I am glad you found someone to help you out. Between them and the individuals that you know that are beating the book you will probably never have do a days work.

I am envious.

John (acesover)
If I were to agree with you. Then we would both be wrong. As of Apr 5, 2015 10:26 pm I have 880 posts. Used to have over 1,000
LobowolfXXX
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Quote:
On 2009-11-16 21:05, acesover wrote:
I am glad you found someone to help you out. Between them and the individuals that you know that are beating the book you will probably never have do a days work.

I am envious.

John (acesover)


This is a false dichotomy. There's a world of difference between, "Nobody makes money betting on sports in the long run," and "You'll probably never have to do a day's work."

First of all, I strongly suspect that most of the people making money consistently betting sports are working their errr tails off.

Secondly, the inherent swings in any sort of gambling create a world of difference between betting profitably and making a living. There's a balance between a high percentage of winners, and a higher number of profitable bets. Greater accuracy means picking your spots more carefully, which in turn means fewer opportunities. If you hit, say, 4/7 of your bets and found 140 opportunities in a year, you'd be up 14 units (80 wins, 60 (+10% = 66) losses). So if you want to make $70,000 a year, you're betting $5,000 a game. The potential swings when you're expecting to end up +14 are significant enough that you could easily end up doing a lot worse than that. And you're still legally obligated for the taxes on whatever you win. And you might want things like, say, health insurance. Or good luck with a home loan telling your favorite mortgage company you're a professional sports bettor. So even with a valid mathematical expectation of +$70,000 after a year, you could end up with considerably less than that, or even losing money. That requires the bankroll to keep paying your bills, and to keep making $5,000 bets waiting for the long run to come around.

For most people, even the ones who can beat the 11-10 juice, who want some stability and have limited bankrolls and bills to pay on a regular basis, they're not betting $5,000 a game. They're betting a few hundred a game. And if you're up 14 units at the end of the year picking 4/7 winners, and you're playing $300 a game, you just make $4,200. Nice work, but don't quit your day job just yet. If you want to make more than 140 plays a year, you can expect that 4/7 to decrease.

That also assumes you have not only the skill to pick better than 52% and change (to cover the juice), but also the discipline. There are people who do. Lots of people who do. Just like there are people doing better in the stock market than buying an index fund. But they're a substantial minority (to say the least). But "millions to one against" is an overstatement (to say the least). Most people can't do it, and most of the ones who can don't make a living at it. Rough gig, to say the least.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
tommy
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Well all I can say is I was born into a family of bookmakers and in 60 years I have known just about all the pro punters in the UK. I don’t think there has been more than six and all that time and had inside info. They each of them were very intelligent and very hard working. Trying to beat the bookies is the hardest in the world. Aces is telling you the truth. OK its bad news... so shoot him.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
stoneunhinged
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But don't the bookies have to do the same work?

I haven't bet on sports since I was in high school, so I don't have the slightest idea how it really works. I'm totally ignorant about this stuff.

So forgive the stupid questions. I mean, please answer them, but forgive me for being stupid.

How does a bookmaker get some kind of "house" advantage? With the spread? But isn't the spread just a calculated guess? Assuming for a moment (and yes, it's a damm big assumption) that a game or match isn't rigged, how does the bookie calculate a spread that guarantees an advantage?

What am I missing in all this?
tommy
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Hi Jeff better to read this than me trying to explain it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematics_of_bookmaking
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
splice
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LoboWolf has it. I would link somewhere else but they essentially say the same thing. I don't expect to quit my day job, but I also don't expect to ask aces for any advice. I also recall him doubting that blackjack could be beaten, so there you go. Ploppy all the way.

Thanks for the thoughts though.
acesover
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Quote:
On 2009-11-17 05:35, stoneunhinged wrote:
But don't the bookies have to do the same work?

I haven't bet on sports since I was in high school, so I don't have the slightest idea how it really works. I'm totally ignorant about this stuff.

So forgive the stupid questions. I mean, please answer them, but forgive me for being stupid.

How does a bookmaker get some kind of "house" advantage? With the spread? But isn't the spread just a calculated guess? Assuming for a moment (and yes, it's a damm big assumption) that a game or match isn't rigged, how does the bookie calculate a spread that guarantees an advantage?

What am I missing in all this?


The bookies have to do the same work...well sort of. When you read the sports section of the paper you will see the LINE..this is also known as the spread. That is the difference that one team is supposed to score over another one. This may be calculated by your local sports writer. However you do not get sports writers to take bets so the best line is from Vegas. What this does is make make the games a coin toss..in other words if The Giants are favored by 7 points over the Eagles the better can pick either team. If he picks the Eagles he is given 7 points plus the actual points the Eagles score. So far this sounds very fair and even for the beter. How ever there is the vig. The vig is the difference in how much the better can win and how much he wagers. The easiest way to explain this is that he must wager $11 to win $10 (different size betters get different odds). The wagers are usualy paid after the event in most cases. So if he wins he receives $10 from the book. If he loses he pays the book $11. If he prepays his bets (this is done on some occasions for reasons I am not going to get into now) he would pay the book $11 before the game and if he won get back $21 after the game. So the ideal situation for the book is to have like amounts wagered on both teams. That way the book makes his 11 for 10 profit. However it is not a perfect world and we have to have someone we can lay off lopsided wagers. Otherwise we would just be gambling. Just to clarify what I mean. If I get $3,000 bet on the Eagles and $1,000 bet on the Giants. Unless I want to gamble and take the Giants I will lay off $2,000 of the Eagles to another book (I will actually make a small profit on this but not at 11/10).

Hope that clears it up a bit. There are a lot more nuances involved but that is the general concept. Many more things involved such as spread changes during the week. I will not take wagers before Thrusday on a Sunday game and it is possible for a spread change even that close. I know books who will not take wagers until 36 hours before the game..that has its own porblems also especially in laying off wagers. But now we are getting complicated and going much deeper into this than this post allows.
If I were to agree with you. Then we would both be wrong. As of Apr 5, 2015 10:26 pm I have 880 posts. Used to have over 1,000
LobowolfXXX
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Quote:
On 2009-11-17 00:04, tommy wrote:
Well all I can say is I was born into a family of bookmakers and in 60 years I have known just about all the pro punters in the UK. I don’t think there has been more than six and all that time and had inside info. They each of them were very intelligent and very hard working. Trying to beat the bookies is the hardest in the world. Aces is telling you the truth. OK its bad news... so shoot him.


Again, you're making the incorrect assumption that being able to beat the bookies (e.g. come out ahead in the long run) = making a living at it. If we take the statement that only 6 make a living at it in the UK at face value, that doesn't mean that only 6 are winning consistently.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
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