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acesover
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Lobo,

You mention 52%. Your quote: That also assumes you have not only the skill to pick better than 52% and change (to cover the juice), but also the discipline.

I think you may have made a mistake but if you are talking about winning 4 out of 7 wagers you have to pick almost 60% not 52%. And that is very diffiicult to do on a regular basis..I dare not say impossible here as I will be reprimanded (not by yourself but by others).
If I were to agree with you. Then we would both be wrong. As of Apr 5, 2015 10:26 pm I have 880 posts. Used to have over 1,000
acesover
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Just an addition to how difficult it would be to attain that $70,000 figure. Even if one could pick 60% winners which I highly doubt one would have to wager close to $15,000 a week on average based on 140 wagers a year.

So as Lobo stated it is a "Rough gig to say the least".
If I were to agree with you. Then we would both be wrong. As of Apr 5, 2015 10:26 pm I have 880 posts. Used to have over 1,000
iamslow
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I don't know much about sports betting statistics, but would it be feasable to do the martingale system with sports?
"Everyone is tough till they get punched in the face" Mike Tyson
LobowolfXXX
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Quote:
On 2009-11-17 13:31, acesover wrote:
Lobo,

You mention 52%. Your quote: That also assumes you have not only the skill to pick better than 52% and change (to cover the juice), but also the discipline.

I think you may have made a mistake but if you are talking about winning 4 out of 7 wagers you have to pick almost 60% not 52%. And that is very diffiicult to do on a regular basis..I dare not say impossible here as I will be reprimanded (not by yourself but by others).



Sorry for the lack of clarity. 52% (and change) is the amount you have to pick to break even (at least in pointspread games with a typical 11-10 payoff). It's actually about 52.4% It's the decimal equivalent of 11/21. If you win 11/21 of the time, you're covering the 11-10; you have to do better than that to show a profit.

The 4/7 was a figure I made up out of nowhere to represent a win rate of a successful bettor. It's actually just a shade over 57%. I wanted an easy-to-analyze faction that was better than 11/21. 60% win rate is REALLY tough, so I didn't want to use 3/5. So I picked 4/7 from thin air, and took a closer look at what that would mean for making-a-living purposes.
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acesover
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Quote:
On 2009-11-17 14:09, iamslow wrote:
I don't know much about sports betting statistics, but would it be feasable to do the martingale system with sports?


To answer in a word. Yes. Just remember two things 1. The vig. 2. Geometric progression and the ability to do this on a continual basis.

The continual basis is what will get you.

example: 11, 22, 44, 88. Suppose you do win the 88 bet...you are only ahead 3 because of the vig. So at that point you are wagering 88 to win 3. Your next wager is 176 if you win this you will be ahead 11 but if you lose this wager you will be down 341. So how deep are your pockets and how many times can you go back to the well?
If I were to agree with you. Then we would both be wrong. As of Apr 5, 2015 10:26 pm I have 880 posts. Used to have over 1,000
acesover
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Quote:
On 2009-11-17 14:37, LobowolfXXX wrote:
Quote:
On 2009-11-17 13:31, acesover wrote:
Lobo,

You mention 52%. Your quote: That also assumes you have not only the skill to pick better than 52% and change (to cover the juice), but also the discipline.

I think you may have made a mistake but if you are talking about winning 4 out of 7 wagers you have to pick almost 60% not 52%. And that is very diffiicult to do on a regular basis..I dare not say impossible here as I will be reprimanded (not by yourself but by others).



Sorry for the lack of clarity. 52% (and change) is the amount you have to pick to break even (at least in pointspread games with a typical 11-10 payoff). It's actually about 52.4% It's the decimal equivalent of 11/21. If you win 11/21 of the time, you're covering the 11-10; you have to do better than that to show a profit.

The 4/7 was a figure I made up out of nowhere to represent a win rate of a successful bettor. It's actually just a shade over 57%. I wanted an easy-to-analyze faction that was better than 11/21. 60% win rate is REALLY tough, so I didn't want to use 3/5. So I picked 4/7 from thin air, and took a closer look at what that would mean for making-a-living purposes.


Yes I understand..but I am getting a headache. Ha, ha.

I still like the old wager..Heads I win tales you lose.
If I were to agree with you. Then we would both be wrong. As of Apr 5, 2015 10:26 pm I have 880 posts. Used to have over 1,000
Maitre D
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Iamslow, yes you can follow martingale, but it wouldn't give any sort of long-term advantage. If you're only wanting to increase your bankroll by something like 5%, then sure, martingale will likely do the job.

What many of you are neglecting to realize is that betting spreads are based on behavioral outcomes (the performance of the athlete), not indefinite mathematical probabilities (like 21). If you truly understand the odds, it's more than possible to make good money from wagering sports bets if you can recognize a profitable spread.

Sometime around 2004, it wouldn't be uncommon for my brother and I on the east-coast to collectively pool $1-4k on some cinch spreads about every other week. He understood football like nobody else I know - he studied the sport like a bible. He simply had a gift for it. Of course we had some flops (which later convinced us to stop), but for about a year he was making more from it than his 9-to-5. If he still had the heart for it, I'm sure he could sustain himself off of it.

To be successful at sports betting, you need to weigh the behavioral aspect of the game against the mathematical odds of the spread. I'm doubting any book could teach you how to do this to any consistently profitable extent.
Logan Five
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In 2006 I won a internet baseball contest with the information in this thread. It's a soild approach to baseball handicapping. It's in Jahred post. I'am the OP who started this thread by the way..

http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/showthread.php?t=90339

I hope you find it useful.
Self concept is destiny..
FILL--IPINESS
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Horse races , that's where I bet and get money .


FILL
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