College hoops tonight:

Georgia State +17.5 ($110 to win $100)

NBA:
New York +5 ($165 to win $150)

Charlotte 94, New York 87 (L)
Florida St. 62, Georgia St. 55 (W)

Balance: $11,225
Total placed in action: $9,615
Net result on graded plays: + $1,225

$50 to win $80 on Jacksonville to beat the Colts straight up tonight.

Lobowolf,

Still doing well.

How come you stayed away from the Jacksonville, Colts game? Had a lot of action on that one.

Aces...see the post directly above yours - I threw 1/2 a bet on Jacksonville on the moneyline. Close one.

Indianapolis 35, Jacksonville 31 (L)


Balance: $11,175
Total placed in action: $9,665
Net result on graded plays: + $1,175

On 2009-12-18 08:51, acesover wrote:
Lobowolf,

Still doing well.

How come you stayed away from the Jacksonville, Colts game? Had a lot of action on that one.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Aces...see the post directly above yours - I threw 1/2 a bet on Jacksonville on the moneyline.






Whoops...I missed that. I thought I had all your wagers before I posted that. Like a 17 hour difference in posts. My bad.

Weekend plays:

College basketball:
Old Dominion +9.5 ($110 to win $100)
Missouri State -1.5 ($110 to win $100)
Temple +4.5 ($110 to win $100)
Virginia Commonwealth -4 ($110 to win $100)

College football:
Central Florida +2.5 ($165 to win $150)
BYU +2.5 ($165 to win $150)
Central Florida/Rutgers under 43.5 ($110 to win $100)
Southern Mississippi -3.5 ($110 to win $100)
UCF/Rutgers under 43.5 ($110 to win $100)


NFL:
Green Bay +2 ($165 to win $150)
Arizona -12.5 ($165 to win $150)
San Diego -7 ($165 to win $150)
Baltimore/Chicago over 39 ($110 to win $100)
Baltimore -11 ($110 to win $100)
Minnesota/Carolina under 43.5 ($110 to win $100)
Tampa Bay/Seattle over 39 ($110 to win $100)

Big weekend!

I did not check the results..How are yo doing Lobo? Lots of wagers this last week.

The BYU game is Tuesday; I'm waiting on the full recap until it's over (mostly because it's been a busy few days). I think it was 3-1 in college basketball, 1-2 in college football with BYU still to come (I accidentally posted the same game twice, because I couldn't read my own notes (UCF = Central Florida), and 3-4 in the NFL, including 1-2 on the "big bet" games. So, depending on the BYU game, I'm probably down somewhere between 2-4 bets...I'll have to see how it pans out. The college basketball might have been 2-2, ut I think it's 3-1, but all those were small bets. Pretty sure I'll be under $11,000 though, even with a win in the BYU game.

As I stated before you are doing quite well. I did not figure out your percentage of wins but I would imagine you are around 60 to 65% which is very good. You are doing better than most of the tip sheets out there.

Two new ones for tonight -

Denver -3.5 (NBA) ($165 to win $150)

Utah +3 (college FB) ($110 to win $100)

I'll do the bookkeeping tonight when I get home from work. BYU won big, so it's probably just down a couple of hundred from the big weekend post, but we'll see.

Balance: $11,180
Total placed in action: $11,865
Net result on graded plays: + $1,180

College basketball:
Old Dominion 61, Georgetown 57 (W)
Missouri State 73, St. Louis 63 (W)
Temple 71, Seton Hall 65 (W)
Virginia Commonwealth 78, Tulane 77 (L)
Rutgers 45, UCF 24 (L/L)
BYU 44, Oregon State 20 (W)
Middle Tennessee 42, Southern Miss. 32 (L)
Pittsburgh 37, Green Bay 36 (W)
Arizona 31, Detroit 24 (L)
San Diego 27, Cincinnati 24 (L)
Baltimore 31, Chicago 7 (W/L)
Carolina 26, Minnesota 7 (W)
Tampa Bay 24, Seattle 7 (L)
Denver 124, Atlanta 104 (W)
Utah 37, Cal 27 (W)

Well, I did the math finally, and it turns out going 2-0 tonight put me up 5 bucks since the last time I checked in. LOL Which is about what I thought - was down 2 or 3 hundred after the weekend's posted plays were scored. But pulled out of my mini-slump with a 3-0 recovery (counting Tuesday's BYU win). So it goes.

I think the pointspread plays are 49-32 (about 60.5%), but don't quote me.

Balance: $11,180
Total placed in action: $11,865

Sorry but how can you have more in action than you have?

There are no current wagers pending. After the $10,000 start, $11,865 has been "wagered." Those $11,865 in wagers have generated a profit of $1,180, bringing the $10,000 up to $11,180.

New football action for the weekend...

College:
Marshall +3 $110 to win $100
USC -7 $110 to win $100
USC/BC Under 45 $110 to win $100
Kentucky +6.5 $110 to win $100

NFL:
Seattle +14 $165 to win $150
Balt/Pitt Over 42 $165 to win $150
Cincinnati -13 $165 to win $150
Buffalo +9 $165 to win $150
NY Jets +5.5 $110 to win $100
Denver +7 $110 to win $100
Tampa Bay/New Orleans Under 49 $110 to win $100

Marshall 21, Ohio 17 (W)
USC 24, Boston College 13 (W/W)
Clemson 21, Kentucky 13 (L)
Green Bay 48, Seattle 10 (L)
Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 20 (W)
Cincinnati 17, Kansas City 10 (L)
Atlanta 31, Buffalo 3 (L)
NY Jets 29, Indianapolis 15 (W)
Philadelphia 30, Denver 27 (W)
Tampa Bay 20, New Orleans 17 (W)

Balance: $11,325
Total Placed in Action $13,295
Net Result on Graded Plays: + $1,325
Return on Investment: 9.97%
Pointspread plays: 56-36 (60.87%)
Tommy's predicted balance to date* $9,335

*I think the suggestion was that the plays are essentiall coin flips, and I'll be down the percentage that goes to the bookmaker. The bookmaker's getting 10% of my losses (on the pointspread plays, which have been the vast majority of the picks; a small portion have been at posted odds, e.g. a an underdog without points at 3-2). With about $13,300 in wagers, if I'm flipping coins, I'd be expected to have won $6,650 in bets and lost $6650, and thus be down 10% of the $6650 in losing bets, or $665. $10,000 - $665 = $9,335.

I'll keep posting until 2x the original bankroll, or $20,000, has been placed in action - almost entirely 1% to 1.5% at a time, to date.

In the meantime, anyone want to revisit or reconsider the discussion from the other thread about whether it's possible to pick enough winners to outpace the vigorish?

Lobo,

We have to point out here the way a book functions. If you were the only person wagering the bookie would indeed by down $1,325. I am sure you realize but maybe not all here understand the way a book works. The ideal situation is for the book to have equal amounts of money wagered on the outcome of the game so no matter who wins the book wins. Example $110 on team A to Win and $110 on team B to win. The book now has $220 wagered on the game and has to pay out $210 thus insurinig himself a profit of $10 no matter who wins. So when a book has let us say a total of $3,000 on team A and $2,000 on team B he will lay off $1,000 to "THE MAN" at a less of a vig but still not gamble but insure himself a part of the vig. He lays it off at say 3% instead of 5%. But still insures himself a profit. I hope I am making myself clear here. This is a simplified version as many books do not lay off anything if they can cover the difference because of the vig involved. By that I mean if the amount wagered while not being equal will still not hurt the vig no matter who wins he may keep all the action and hope the team that wins is the one with the smaller amount wagered. Booking is not as easy it looks but it is very profitable no matter what team wins or loses.

One other point I would like to make here is that the spread used is determined by the book and while close to the newspaper spread it is not always the same. Remember, no newspaper accepts wagers.

I hope most here understand my explanation

I'm not posting using newspaper spreads; I'm posting using casino spreads. Every bet I've posted was available at the time I posted it.

Your point about the bookmaker is well-taken; the fact that a particular person is up doesn't mean the bookmaker is losing. Essentially, it's like a poker game at a casino, where the house takes a cut. The fact that the house is making money doesn't mean that everyone else is losing money; there are enough bad players around that good players can make money.