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Andrew Zuber Inner circle Los Angeles, CA 3014 Posts |
I'm currently in one now, as it's part of the research methods requirement for my master's degree program here.
That said, don't ask me to actually do any statistics. I'm useless in that field
"I'm sorry - if you were right, I would agree with you." -Robin Williams, Awakenings
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acesover Special user I believe I have 821 Posts |
Quote:
On 2010-11-16 13:30, Magnus Eisengrim wrote: In answer to your question. Read your response. You brought the distance into it. It is all about time not distance. The more time you spend doing something the more apt something will happen, regardless of the distance you travel. Is that a hard concept for you to underestand? If you travel 500 miles by car and it takes you 10 hours you have 10 hours for something to happen such as a heart attack. However if you travel the same 500 miles by a jet plane in 1 and a half hours you only have 1 and a half hours to have the same heart attack. So obviously you have a better possibility of having a heart attack while driving because of the time. Do you see why time is of the essence and not the distance? The most precious commidity we have TIME. Maybe you do not think it important but I do. You cannot get it back. When it is gone it is gone. Why would you call me a pr!ck? What the heck is wrong with you? First you call me a jerk than the p word. You have a great command of the English language. Give it a rest and take a pill. Relax, time is not important to you obviously...good for you. I find your language distasteful. Don't use it any more, OK? Do you eat out of the same mouth?
If I were to agree with you. Then we would both be wrong. As of Apr 5, 2015 10:26 pm I have 880 posts. Used to have over 1,000
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balducci Loyal user Canada 227 Posts |
Acesover, if time is the important factor, then why is it that most safety experts generally focus on distance traveled instead?
However, just for you, here are some statistics describing fatalities per billion passenger kms, journeys, and hours traveled: http://dspace.dial.pipex.com/town/square......2000.htm Air beats (is safer than car) when you compare by distance traveled OR by hours traveled. Cars only do better when you compare fatalities per number of trips. Will you concede that you are wrong now, or are you going to jump ship and start saying that the accurate comparison is fatalities per trip?
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
The OP--that is, acesover--asked the simple question:
Quote:
How do we arrive at the conclusion that air travel is safer than driving? Fair enough...let's talk about it. So we do. Suddenly, the OP--that is, acesover--decides what is an accptable approach to the question and what is not by stipulating Quote:
What is it you do not understand? Not miles traveled...TIME SPENT TRAVELING is the issue. Well, I call BS on you, acesover. The original question asks where the belief comes from. That's why the raw numbers mentioned at the top of the thread are relevant. A secondary question--whether one mode of traffic is safer than the other--requires some elaboration of how one interprets "safer". One possibility is that we count number of deaths; one is that we count deaths per unit time; one is that we count deaths per unit distance. And there are many others, including incidence of food poisoning, heart attack, general discomfort, non-life-threatening injuries, etc. If you don't like my calculations, fine. Provide your own. But spare me the condescension of claiming that you have the only valid extension to the original question. John
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21219 Posts |
Let me give it a whirl. Pick a random period of time. Calculate the total number of hours flown, that is, the total time spent in the air by all people. (100 people on a 1 hour flight would contribute 100 hours to the total.) Actually, since accidents occur on the runway too, that should be time spent aboard a commercial plane, not just in the air. (But do fatal accidents happen on the runway? Someone check that out!)
Now do the same calculation for total time spent in autos. Then divide each by the total number of fatalities in airplanes/cars during that time period. If S_F is the time-sum for flying, N_F the number of fatalities, and S_D and N_D the corresponding numbers for driving, then you have your ratio you are looking for right? Of being killed in an airplane per unit time vs your chance of being killed in a car crash per unit of time. It has to either be per-time or per-mile to reflect that you have more of a chance of getting killed the longer your voyage, but perhaps per-mile is better. That way you can compare: what is safer? Driving from La to Chicago, or flying from La to Chicago? Either way you must compare apples to apples. Time vs time and distance vs distance. It may be two completely different numbers I am not sure. So am I close? Oh and I didn't call anyone anything LOL.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
I'm with you Danny.
John Ooops, I just called you "Danny".
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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stoneunhinged Inner circle 3067 Posts |
Let's consider a few other things:
If you have a car accident on the highway, how quickly can emergency crews come to your rescue? And if they don't come quickly, how likely is it that you will have to resort to cannibalism to survive? Why don't automobiles have black boxes? Or Pitot tubes? If your car crashes and you survive, what are the odds of sharks coming to eat you? Have you ever heard of a car accident in which all the passengers knew they were doomed, but had to sit there for ten minutes or so--or even 32 minutes like on JAL 123? Have any of you suffered through a bomb threat event in a car, like my mother did in an airplane, in which the pilot told everyone to say their prayers because the bomb was supposed to explode when they went down to a certain altitude? Do any of you own cars with those inflatable slides attached to the doors? Have you ever heard of a car crashing due to "windshear"? But the statistics probably prove that air travel is safer than automobile travel. As for myself, I get the shakes when I have to travel on the autobahn. Call me biased, but I'd rather walk than drive or fly. I also refuse to ski. It's ALL dangerous. |
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RS1963 Inner circle 2734 Posts |
Bottom line is we all know nothing since acesover is the expert on time, what is and isn't the best way travel time wise etc... He should be teaching a remedial course in time chronology I suppose.
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stoneunhinged Inner circle 3067 Posts |
Yeah, well, aces never had some Colombian soccer player looking at his leg and thinking how tasty it would be.
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acesover Special user I believe I have 821 Posts |
Quote:
On 2010-11-16 14:55, balducci wrote: Honestly I looked over and read "some" of the info and I cannot find anything definitive comparing auto travel and air travel in man hours of time in traveling. Please point me to it. If I am wrong and if when comparing the amount of hours in traveling in an auto which has to be in the multi millions in a year and much less by air I will say I am wrong. However when one compares the small amount of TIME TRAVELED IN PLANES compared to the amount of TIME TRAVELED IN AUTOS the rate of fatalities has to be lower in autos. The sheer volume of auto travel has to be tremendous compared to the small amount of people travelinig by air at any give time. I believe I found on the initernet that there are 750,000,000 autos in the world. How many planes could there possibly be? Every day there must be logged over 750,000,000 hours of auto travel by individuals and I do not think that the airline industry even comes anywhere near that. Would the airline industsry have a million hours a day, 10 million hours a day? I doubt the 10 million hour number. A ten hour flight of 400 passangers is only 4,000 hours. I could be wrong but I do not believe that there are 1,000 10 hour flights a day in the world. You would need a 1,000 of these flights just to reach 4 million. I feel I am correct in my assumption that auto travel is safer based on man hours. In answer to your question I will not jumpship as I might drown in doing so. But I have yet to see where the amount of time traveled by all individuals that fly as opposed to all individuals that are in autos by time that planes are safer. I have been wrong before I just cannot remember when.
If I were to agree with you. Then we would both be wrong. As of Apr 5, 2015 10:26 pm I have 880 posts. Used to have over 1,000
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acesover Special user I believe I have 821 Posts |
Reading your post again can you show me where it says this:
Air beats (is safer than car) when you compare by distance traveled OR by hours traveled. The hours traveled part. I am sure you read it I just cannot find it.
If I were to agree with you. Then we would both be wrong. As of Apr 5, 2015 10:26 pm I have 880 posts. Used to have over 1,000
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balducci Loyal user Canada 227 Posts |
Look at Table 1.
Fatalities per billion passenger km: Air 0.05, Car 3.1. Fatalities per billion passenger Hours: Air 30.8, Car 130. Fatalities per billion passenger Journeys: Air 117, Car 40.
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
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balducci Loyal user Canada 227 Posts |
Quote:
On 2010-11-16 15:53, balducci wrote: Also, keep in mind that the above only includes FATALITIES. Include passenger accidents of any sort, and cars are going to come out even worse.
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
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stoneunhinged Inner circle 3067 Posts |
Yeah, well, none of you guys are including cannibalism in your statistics.
Frauds, all of you. |
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
Mark Twain did write a short story "Cannibalism in the Cars". Of course he was writing about trains, but the message is clear: Cars and Cannibalism go together.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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stoneunhinged Inner circle 3067 Posts |
Right.
Well, I like walking, and when I want to take a big risk, I ride my bike. Oh, and another thing: Statistics differ from airline to airline. At least, that's what I got from the movie "Rainman". Would you rather ride with a 16 year-old drunkard, or fly Aeroflot? That's the question, as I see it. |
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
Quote:
On 2010-11-16 16:13, stoneunhinged wrote: Those aren't the same choice? John
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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RS1963 Inner circle 2734 Posts |
If time spent in a car VS a plane mattered don't you think that would be taken into consideration by experts etc....? Of course it would be. Has it been? Doesn't look that way. So the time question is a moot one.
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acesover Special user I believe I have 821 Posts |
I guess this is where I am seeing it differently than you many of you.
There is no doubt that there are less fatalities per miles flown than from driving but there are a lot more people traveling in cars than in planes at any given time. So the question should be what is the perecentage of people driving as opposed to the number of people flying in the same time period. If we can answer that I would feel satisfied that I am either wrong or right. If the answer is that there are 1,000 times more people driving than flying at any given time then the difference in deaths should be 1,000 times as many, if 10,000 it should be 10,000 etc. This was not posted to be an arguement but rather what I feel is safer for the masses in getting from point A to point B. If you take it a step further they say most accidents are close to home and not at distance. Naturally flying is a necessiity but I just feel that the blanket statement that "flying is safer" is a misnomer.
If I were to agree with you. Then we would both be wrong. As of Apr 5, 2015 10:26 pm I have 880 posts. Used to have over 1,000
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LobowolfXXX Inner circle La Famiglia 1196 Posts |
Quote:
On 2010-11-16 17:35, acesover wrote: And what would the answer prove, anyway? The assertion that flying is safer than driving is usually brought out to support the notion that the attention to airline security is much ado about nothing; it could just as easily be used to support the proposition that the energies spent on security are worthwhile.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley. "...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us." |
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