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Bob1Dog Inner circle Wife: It's me or this houseful of 1159 Posts |
Folks,
I don't frequent this forum often, so please excuse my ignorance. However, something happened to me today that seems to occur on a somewhat regular/irregular basis and I'm wondering if this event is predictable. It's not really a magical question but I can see a relationship to magic by way of prediction and/or mentalism. If I need to ask the question in the mentalism forum, please, direct me there. So, here's the event, as trivial as it may be: I find that during the course of a 24-hour day, at a certain time, I will notice the time to be 11:11, AM or PM. I've only noticed it on digital clocks in the house, because it's so easy to remember when it happens, four ones in a row. This has been going on for years and I never thought much about it until this evening, when it occurred about twenty or so minutes ago. It's too bad I never paid attention before and wrote down the date of each occurrence to gather data on its frequency, but I didn't. I begin that process as of now. I guess my question's this: is there statistical solution to the occurrence of this event without the data? If there is, I expect it will be a forumula that somehow includes all the minutes in a 24 hour period, with a possiblity of two occurrences each day and manipulating that again for 365 days each year, and that's about as far as my mathematical skills will take it. But I'd still like to know. Obviously any numbered digital time sequence would apply, but this one is so easy to explain. I'd appreciate hearing from you and I apologize in advance if this is the wrong forum to post. Thanks!
What if the Hokey Pokey really IS what it's all about?
My neighbor rang my doorbell at 2:30 a.m. this morning, can you believe that, 2:30 a.m.!? Lucky for him I was still up playing my drums. |
Bob1Dog Inner circle Wife: It's me or this houseful of 1159 Posts |
I re read my post and seeing it on green background, I realize I'm not clear. Obviously you can predict that this will occur each and every day twice each day, but what is the predictability that it will occur during random time noticing (not time checks!) I would guess that this occurs with me a several times each year. Hope that helps. Thanks
What if the Hokey Pokey really IS what it's all about?
My neighbor rang my doorbell at 2:30 a.m. this morning, can you believe that, 2:30 a.m.!? Lucky for him I was still up playing my drums. |
Scott Cram Inner circle 2678 Posts |
Here's an article that might be of some help:
http://www.eadon.com/coincidences/coincidencesclock.php Of course, just being coincidence is one thing. Your ability to turn a coincidence into a miracle is a measure of your abilities as a magician! |
LobowolfXXX Inner circle La Famiglia 1196 Posts |
Quote:
On 2012-01-19 23:46, Bob1Dog wrote: As I understand your question, if your clock doesn't distinguish between a.m. and p.m., then the answer to the question I think your asking is, the probability of any particular time appearing on the clock is 1 in 720 (there are 12 hours that can be shown on the clock, and each of them has 60 minute combinations - 00 to 59; 12x60 = 720). If there are certain times when you're neither home nor awake (for instance, if you work a 9-5 job go to sleep by midnight, you're probably not home and awake to see anything that starts with hours between 12 & 6, which is half of the combinations (that is, you're sleeping from 12-6 a.m., and at work or driving home from 12-6 p.m.). So now you're down to 1 in 720. You probably see the clock numerous times each day; you just don't remember the ones that don't have interesting numerical combinations. You probably see 7:36 as often as 11:11; you just don't take any note of it. But every time you see 11:11, your brains pauses and processes it. So it's not particularly unusual that you'd notice that you've seen 11:11 several times over the course of a year.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley. "...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us." |
Bob1Dog Inner circle Wife: It's me or this houseful of 1159 Posts |
Quote:
On 2012-01-20 01:19, LobowolfXXX wrote: Thanks for your response and you do understand my question and I understand your simple calculation in your first paragraph (I think!)....But your second paragraph mentions other possibilities....I am retired so I am home a lot during those hours; I don't check the clock regularly, in fact the clock in question is on my way from my family room through the kitchen which I navigate randomly through the day. I can't help but see it when I pass through and that's when I usually note the 11:11; totally random. I'm not sure I understand your posit in the third line of the second paragraph where you say "so now you're down to 1 in 720..." It seems that the probabality should be higher because I AM home most of the time, yielding more than 1 in 720 random views? And at that, even at 1 in 720, that's roughly once every two years, which is much lower than what I am experiencing at several times each year. Again, I'm not a statistics guy and I hated it in college and barely scraped by. But something doesn't seem right yet. BUT I do appreciate your help and look forward to your response! THANKS!
What if the Hokey Pokey really IS what it's all about?
My neighbor rang my doorbell at 2:30 a.m. this morning, can you believe that, 2:30 a.m.!? Lucky for him I was still up playing my drums. |
Bob1Dog Inner circle Wife: It's me or this houseful of 1159 Posts |
LobowolfXXX
Once again, I re-read on green background and see a flaw in my understanding. The 1 in 720 probably refers to one in 720 glances at the clock, which might occur several times each day. Now I understand why it's not once in two years. But still confused by that second paragraph.....What am I missing? Thanks again!
What if the Hokey Pokey really IS what it's all about?
My neighbor rang my doorbell at 2:30 a.m. this morning, can you believe that, 2:30 a.m.!? Lucky for him I was still up playing my drums. |
Bob1Dog Inner circle Wife: It's me or this houseful of 1159 Posts |
Quote:
On 2012-01-20 00:46, Scott Cram wrote: Thanks for that article Scott; haven't read it yet but will tomorrow (read that later today!) ...it looks interesting and informative. As for miracles, well, you've said it well! best, bob
What if the Hokey Pokey really IS what it's all about?
My neighbor rang my doorbell at 2:30 a.m. this morning, can you believe that, 2:30 a.m.!? Lucky for him I was still up playing my drums. |
Michael Daniels Inner circle Isle of Man 1609 Posts |
Basically LobowolfXXX and the article recommended by Scott are suggesting that we tend to notice events that are meaningful and fail to notice inconsequential events. So if the clock reads 11:11, or 15:15, or 12:34, or 09:11, we are more likely to notice it than if it says 11:14, or 15:03, or 09:12.
The flaw in your argument is that you are assuming that you are engaging in "random time noticing" when, in fact, the noticing is being caused by non-random times. Hence the noticing is not random. To test your hypothesis, you would need a random event generator (e.g., a random vibrator - you can actually buy these for research purposes). Then you look at the clock whenever the REG vibrates. I am sure that you will find that the frequency of "significant" times is exactly what would be statistically predicted. For example, the clock would register 11:11 one time in 720 observations (of course you would need to carry out many trials to produce a meaningful average). Here's a personal example of non-random noticing - when queuing at the toll gates through the Mersey Tunnel, I would often notice that my queue would regularly be the one that was stuck, no matter which one I chose. It all seemed very unfair and non-random. But, of course, that is because I never noticed the occasions when the other queues had problems. Mike |
Michael Daniels Inner circle Isle of Man 1609 Posts |
Got to laugh - I just looked at my phone to check the time - it was 11:11.
Mike |
LobowolfXXX Inner circle La Famiglia 1196 Posts |
When I said "now you're down to 1 in 720," that was a typo. It should have read "1 in 360" (if you weren't around at half of the times during the day).
You said that you notice 11:11 several times a year. If you're retired and usually home, let's say you glance at the clock once per hour. That's two glances (a.m. And p.m.) per day between 11 and 12. 1 time in every 60 (on average) a glance between 11 and 12 will be at 11:11 (since there are 60 different readings, from 11:00 to 11:59). If you look twice an hour, that's about 60 times per month, which means you'll see 11:11 about once a month, or 12 times a year. That's not unusual; it's just that For the reasons Michael points out, you'll remember those 12 times clearly, and forget about the other 59 times a month you looked and it wasn't any "special" time.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley. "...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us." |
Bob1Dog Inner circle Wife: It's me or this houseful of 1159 Posts |
Michael and LobowolfXXX,
I get it now! And I understand the 1 in 720 probability. That's funny Michael that you clocked at 11:11! Thanks Gents!
What if the Hokey Pokey really IS what it's all about?
My neighbor rang my doorbell at 2:30 a.m. this morning, can you believe that, 2:30 a.m.!? Lucky for him I was still up playing my drums. |
S2000magician Inner circle Yorba Linda, CA 3465 Posts |
Quote:
On 2012-01-20 11:50, LobowolfXXX wrote: When you intend to type "360" and you type "350", or "369", or "460", that's a typo. Typing "720" instead of "360" ain't a typo. ;) |
Bob1Dog Inner circle Wife: It's me or this houseful of 1159 Posts |
Scott, that was a great article because these occurrences of digital number pairings are more frequently observed in the lower numbers! Excellent piece, thanks for sending it.
What if the Hokey Pokey really IS what it's all about?
My neighbor rang my doorbell at 2:30 a.m. this morning, can you believe that, 2:30 a.m.!? Lucky for him I was still up playing my drums. |
LobowolfXXX Inner circle La Famiglia 1196 Posts |
Quote:
On 2012-01-20 16:54, S2000magician wrote: Good point...more like a brain freeze.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley. "...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us." |
DWRackley Inner circle Chattanooga, TN 1909 Posts |
I noticed that the article also mentioned the possibility of a “real” biological cause as well. I worked for 18 years in a computer room where, for 12 hours a day I was responsible for running various programs in the correct sequence and with as little delay as possible.
Some of these packages would run for hours, but the next program would need to be released within seconds of the first’s completion. (This was in the days before scheduler programs or “cron jobs” became popular.) I often jokingly compared my employment to being an “air traffic controller”: hours of boredom punctuated by moments of sheer terror. Obviously few people could stay perfectly focused for such a duration, but I noticed that my own “internal clock” would tell me when it was time to become alert. More than once following a system crash I’d have VPs standing over my shoulder asking “When will it be back up?” (With mainframes there’s no such thing as a simple “reboot”; even the rudimentary functions, Power, VTAM, CICS are sequentially dependent). I’d always give an answer, such as “Seven minutes, 45 seconds”. Of course, I could see the VPs take this as a challenge, and they’d “post” themselves at the console, watching the time. I was never wrong by more than 5 seconds. This "ability" came from extreme familiarity with the machine, coming from hours of daily practice. Plus, I was a nerd. I have since discovered that I am Aspergic, which is usually noted as a “high functioning autism” (which explains much! ), and numbers (especially Time) have always been “internal” to me. I drive my wife crazy by telling her exactly what time it is without looking at a clock. (She is always running late!) Long story; anyway, understanding the actual commonness of true coincidence, coupled with the fact that we remember some things better than others, Coupled with the fact that humans like to find order in everything, COUPLED with my own (admittedly subjective) observation that very few magicians have anywhere approaching “normal” personalities, I’m almost willing to bet that you do indeed see 11:11 more often than any other digits, because (on some level) you KNOW when to look at the clock. That’s my story and I’m sticking with it! (…and a great article, by the way…)
...what if I could read your mind?
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