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The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » Not very magical, still... » » Vaccine Controversy: A PubMed Compilation : 15 to start with (0 Likes) Printer Friendly Version

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tommy
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If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

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Woland
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A very cherry-picked list of articles, however I will look at the first group as I find time and report back.
tommy
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You have not looked at them but know somehow they are a very cherry-picked list of articles. Cool! Are you a magician?
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

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Woland
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I looked at the list of articles, and noticed that quite a few very large and important recent studies were missing. Therefore, it appeared to me that the compiler of the list had chosen to include only studies that supported the thesis that is being advanced.

One of the problems in the articles that are listed, is that they are small, and a lot hinges on whether the initial classification of the subjects as autistic or not autistic is accurate.

The studies in the first two articles in the list are also retrospective studies.
tommy
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Quite a few very large and important recent cherry-picked studies were missing?

Hmmm. How can a study not be retrospective?

Well I guess one might have a crystal ball and look forward.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

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Woland
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Hi tommy,

It appears that I did not make myself clear.

The studies at the website you kindly provided appear to have been chosen to support the owner of that website's views.

Several very important recent studies that contradict the owner's views were omitted from the list.

Therefore, the list appears to be "cherry picked."

How can a study not be retrospective? Very simple.

In a retrospective study, you identify a group of children who meet a definition of autism. You then find a group of children who appear similar to that first group, but who do not meet the definition of autism. You then compare them in some way, and if there are any differences, you report them.

The probelm with that sort of study, is that you have no idea whether those two groups of children are actually comparable.

A prospective study would be conducted slightly differently. You would enroll a large number of newborns, some of whom would receive the treatment that you are studying, while others wouldn't. Whether or not the treatment was given would be determined randomly, by chance.Then after some period of time, you would ascertain whether the outcomes were different in the two groups.

That is a prospective study. For example, you could randomize a group of newborns to receive the hepatitis vaccine or not, and then several years later have all of the children evaluated for autism by examiners who did not know if the children had been vaccinated. That would provide a more reliable result.

That would be a difficult study to get past an ethics committee, however.

An alternative would be to conduct a large enough retrospective study to eliminate the possibility that some of the effects you are seeing are due to chance.

For example, the first study linked at the site to which you pointed us, studied 125 children with autism, and compared them to 92 children without autism. The abstract does not explain how the diagnosis of autism was made.
But that's a small study.

A larger study was published in the New England Journal of Medicine in 2002. The full text is at the link.

This was also a retrospective study, but the studied population was somewhat larger than those studied in the papers linked at the site you found:

Quote:
Of the 537,303 children in the cohort (representing 2,129,864 person-years), 440,655 (82.0 percent) had received the MMR vaccine. We identified 316 children with a diagnosis of autistic disorder and 422 with a diagnosis of other autistic-spectrum disorders. After adjustment for potential confounders, the relative risk of autistic disorder in the group of vaccinated children, as compared with the unvaccinated group, was 0.92 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.68 to 1.24), and the relative risk of another autistic-spectrum disorder was 0.83 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.65 to 1.07). There was no association between the age at the time of vaccination, the time since vaccination, or the date of vaccination and the development of autistic disorder.


It is significant that the study population consisted of "all children born in Denmark from January 1991 through December 1998." So it was not biased in any way.
rockwall
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Woland,

I often read in the news that autism rates are greatly increasing. I've often wondered if this is because autism is increasing or if it's because who and how we define autism has changed. Do you have an opinion on this?

Mike
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Hi Mike,

At the same time that the diagnosis of "autism" has increased in frequency, the diagnosis of "mental retardation" has decreased. And about as much. One major concern is the elasticity of the concept of "autism spectrum disorders." I am not sure if the diagnosis of "autism" as Leo Kanner understood it is increasing or not. I doubt it.
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Tommy, I checked the link- the page is disturbing. There is zero real evidence that vaccinations cause autism, and the anti-vac movement has done massive amounts of harm that we're only beginning to see.

Also, I see there's a web-link to chelation therapy. Which makes me want to use words that will trigger the censor filter on this site. Not only does it not work, it's actively harmful, and preys on desperate parents willing to do anything to "fix" their child.

My nephews are both on the autism spectrum, and I know that children with autism can and do respond to behavioral therapy; with the proper teachers and therapists, vast improvements can be made. But it takes a lot of hard work, on the part of the teachers, the parents, and the children. Trying to shortcut these efforts by holding out expensive and dangerous snake oil cures is criminal.
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critter
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LobowolfXXX
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Quote:
On 2013-05-13 17:46, rockwall wrote:
Woland,

I often read in the news that autism rates are greatly increasing. I've often wondered if this is because autism is increasing or if it's because who and how we define autism has changed. Do you have an opinion on this?

Mike


Consistent with Woland's response, there is a strong push by parents for an autism diagnosis instead of a mental retardation diagnosis, particularly in middle- and upper-class households. This has undoubtedly affected the diagnoses.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

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Quote:
On 2013-05-23 23:16, critter wrote:
Image



Very nice graphic, Critter. What is the source?

(I think I found the source data at the CDC. There is a slight difference: for some of the data the CDC document lists "20th century annual morbidity" on the left column but has 2010 data for the right; only a few of the numbers come from a second table "Pre-Vaccination Era".

Do you know who put that graphic together?
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tommy
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If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

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Magnus Eisengrim
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Finally got around to reading the abstracts. Not one of them tests the hypothesis that vaccinations cause autism. A couple suggest that there may be chemical relationships, but none get even close to showing what the blog owner hopes to show.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
critter
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Quote:
On 2013-05-24 11:18, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:
Quote:
On 2013-05-23 23:16, critter wrote:
Image



Very nice graphic, Critter. What is the source?

(I think I found the source data at the CDC. There is a slight difference: for some of the data the CDC document lists "20th century annual morbidity" on the left column but has 2010 data for the right; only a few of the numbers come from a second table "Pre-Vaccination Era".

Do you know who put that graphic together?


I nabbed it from a pro-science page with the acronym "IFLS." Just thought it was a nice visual representation.
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tommy
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Well I don't know how else vaccines can effect the brain other than through chemical relationships.

Anyway the Italian Health Ministry conceded the MMR vaccine caused autism in a case there recently, the victim was awarded damages for it. It is not the first case where children have been allegedly damaged by vaccines. The Vaccine Injury Compensation Program ( that is in the USA I presume) has paid out over $2 billion in compensation to families who have been damaged by vaccines, the other day they paid out $6million out to some people, but is the Italian case the first case where it has been conceded that the MMR vaccine caused autism?
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LobowolfXXX
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I had a friend who had a horrendous case of polio (quadriplegic) that he got from the polio vaccine.

On the other hand, polio is almost completely gone, worldwide.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
EsnRedshirt
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Quote:
On 2013-05-24 15:06, tommy wrote:
Well I don't know how else vaccines can effect the brain other than through chemical relationships.

Anyway the Italian Health Ministry conceded the MMR vaccine caused autism in a case there recently, the victim was awarded damages for it. It is not the first case where children have been allegedly damaged by vaccines. The Vaccine Injury Compensation Program ( that is in the USA I presume) has paid out over $2 billion in compensation to families who have been damaged by vaccines, the other day they paid out $6million out to some people, but is the Italian case the first case where it has been conceded that the MMR vaccine caused autism?
Do they specify why the payment was awarded? Specific vaccines, such as ones for anthrax, can cause injurious side effects (though these vaccines are not usually given to the general public.) Also, people with undiscovered allergies can rarely be injured by vaccines. There's also a risk of contracting Guillain-Barre syndrome after receiving a flu vaccine- but it's 1-2 in 100,000. I'll take my chances; I'd rather not get any number of nasty, preventable diseases by being vaccinated.

You are hurting children by spreading an anti-vaccination message.
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LobowolfXXX
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Quote:
On 2013-05-24 15:22, EsnRedshirt wrote:
You are hurting children by spreading an anti-vaccination message.


It's already far too late for the children of anyone who would base medical decisions on Tommy's TMC posts.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
tommy
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In the UK, the Vaccine Damage Payments Unit has only paid out only small sums to 34 cases over the last decade and the child has to be 60 per cent disabled. It difficult to win as the can say it is just a coincidence.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
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