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stoneunhinged
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Does it cheating? Of course no.

I meet you Macau soon. We does not cheating. We win huge money.
AMcD
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You is alright.
Dannydoyle
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Quote:
On Sep 9, 2014, acesover wrote:
Does anyone really believe card counting is cheating?


It is playing with the fullest possible advantage within the rules.

It is discouraged by casinos if you do it well, and encouraged by casinos if you do it poorly. LAST thing casinos want is to make a law stopping it. They make pretty good money on would be counters.
Danny Doyle
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Dannydoyle
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The Martingale does not work.
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
stoneunhinged
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Does.
Dannydoyle
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At best it is an expensive scheme to try to be even.
Quote:
On Sep 18, 2014, robotraker wrote:
Card counting is not cheating! I am good at memory and get great grade, does it cheating? Of course no!

By the way proper card counting hardly requires a good memory. If you can add and subtract 1 it is really all the skill needed. You do know you don't memorize the cards as they are played right? Card counting is a bit of a misnomer. It is more tracking than anytning. Keeping track of a ratio of groups to other groups and how what is left affects the odds.

Unless of course this was a joke on your first post and I was reeled in.
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
AMcD
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Technically speaking, card "COUNTING" would just require to count from 1 to 52xnumber of decks. Not that hard.
Dannydoyle
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Certainly would not require an advanced degree in mathematics I agree.
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
stoneunhinged
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Quote:
On Oct 2, 2014, stoneunhinged wrote:
Does.


Just to be clear: I was joking.

I am utterly fascinated by "systems" that purport to beat the math.
Dannydoyle
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I figured you were.

I am also amazed at the systems which claim this. How many times does it need to be said that no combination of negative expected value is going to give a positive expected value?
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
LobowolfXXX
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Re Martingale it sort of depends what you mean by "work." Does it yield a positive expectation? No. But does it provide an excellent chance to make a fixed gain? Certainly. For instance, with a moderate bankroll and a modest table limit, you have a well-over-90% chance of making $20 using it. With a bigger bankroll and table limit (a typical VIP room), you're an overwhelming favorite to make hundreds. But in the long run, when you lose, you'll lose what you've won and then some.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
AMcD
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100% of martingales work. All of them. For casinos' owners...
LobowolfXXX
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A makes the following bet with B: A says he can walk into a casino armed with only $700 and make $100 playing roulette using a Martingale. No rebuys; once he loses the $700, A loses the bet. B bets that A won't succeed. The wager is for $1,000.

Who's got the best side of that one?
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
Artie Fufkin
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Whether you're playing the martingale, or any other betting system, the game odds don't change.
the odds are the odds, how you manage your money is an entirely different situation.

if you want to talk about how better money management can result in a potential increase in kept winnings, feel free to elaborate, but the martingale is as big a suckers play today as it has always been a suckers play.
AMcD
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Absolutely. A martingale has to do with how you bet your money, it's a betting system.

In theory your expecting value would be close to 0. But because the casino's take, it's in fact negative.

No martingale can work. Soon or later it'll get you broke. Dead broke.

The only way to make money when talking about casinos is to own one.
LobowolfXXX
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Quote:
On Oct 22, 2014, AMcD wrote:

No martingale can work. Soon or later it'll get you broke. Dead broke.


Again, whether or not it can "work" is a function of what one means by "work." It can offer an exceptionally high probability of a short term fixed return given sufficient capitalization and sufficiently high betting limits. Your point would be more accurately stated: "A martingale does not offer positive EV," or "A martingale system will be a loser in the long run."

Quote:
The only way to make money when talking about casinos is to own one.

This is, of course, patently incorrect. The way to a positive EV in a casino is to be sufficiently proficient at one of the games that offer a positive EV: poker, blackjack, sports betting, and in certain circumstances video poker.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
AMcD
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If you talk about "short term" blablabla, sure money can be made. But it's more like a good streak. And for a short period of time. In the long run, mathematics kill any martingale. Because you win 5 bets in a row doesn't turn your method into an accurate and sure law of probability, etc. What matters with betting patterns is the long run. If you win $10,000 in one month but lose 100K the next 6 months...

My last sentence was a joke, You can beat casinos, and hundreds have done it. Card counters, roulette with biases, short changers, crews colluding, marked cards, bribing dealers, etc. I was talking about mathematics. Casinos have always an edge, for every game they offer. You don't have 1:1 games. They have also betting limits for every game. Therefore, a martingale can't work.

About positive EVs, it's not that simple. It depends the rules in use for each game in the casino. Just for BlackJack, it's difficult to find 2 casinos which don't have variants. Many games have negative EV, in order to turn them positive, you need to count cards, to master odds, read your opponents, etc. Not to mention tipping, rake-off, etc. Not that simple Smile.

I must say I'm a bit surprised. I read you here for quite some time and usually enjoy your posts because you show proficiency, knowledge, etc. But here, arguing about martingales, you kill me my friend! Martingales are for donkeys.
LobowolfXXX
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Quote:
On Oct 23, 2014, AMcD wrote:
If you talk about "short term" blablabla, sure money can be made. But it's more like a good streak. And for a short period of time. In the long run, mathematics kill any martingale. Because you win 5 bets in a row doesn't turn your method into an accurate and sure law of probability, etc. What matters with betting patterns is the long run. If you win $10,000 in one month but lose 100K the next 6 months...

My last sentence was a joke, You can beat casinos, and hundreds have done it. Card counters, roulette with biases, short changers, crews colluding, marked cards, bribing dealers, etc. I was talking about mathematics. Casinos have always an edge, for every game they offer. You don't have 1:1 games. They have also betting limits for every game. Therefore, a martingale can't work.

About positive EVs, it's not that simple. It depends the rules in use for each game in the casino. Just for BlackJack, it's difficult to find 2 casinos which don't have variants. Many games have negative EV, in order to turn them positive, you need to count cards, to master odds, read your opponents, etc. Not to mention tipping, rake-off, etc. Not that simple Smile.

I must say I'm a bit surprised. I read you here for quite some time and usually enjoy your posts because you show proficiency, knowledge, etc. But here, arguing about martingales, you kill me my friend! Martingales are for donkeys.


With a Martingale in the short term, it's more like avoiding a bad streak, but your point is well taken. In the long term, of course it's well known and documented that no method of bet variation will turn a negative EV into a positive. I was semantics the semantics of "work"; not the math. You're assuming only the long run, and yes, in the long run, the Martingale is no help for overcoming the house edge (or more importantly, "gambler's ruin"). However, it CAN work quite nicely in the short run, and what's more, is a strong favorite to do so. If you want to make a hundred bucks and you walk into a casino with $6,300, you have a better than 90% chance of success.

Sorry to have missed the joke! Smile. I feel better...coming from you, that was a jaw-dropper, but I miss a bit of irony from time to time online. I agree, of course, about card counting, reading opponents, etc., but that what goes into acquiring the proficiency to be +EV.

Thanks for the compliment! I must just be feeling contrarian tonight.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
Vargas
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Quote:
On Oct 23, 2014, LobowolfXXX wrote:
If you want to make a hundred bucks and you walk into a casino with $6,300, you have a better than 90% chance of success.


100$ for a risk of 6,300 $... Seems to me like trying to pick up pennies in front of a moving steamroller...

Once again, the expectation is the only thing that matters... If you have 90% chance of getting 100$ and 10% to lose 6 300$, then your expectation is : 0,9 * 100 - 0,1 * 6 300 = 90 - 630 = - 540 $... Does not work !!
AMcD
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@vargas

If you play when you have positive EV only, you may never be rich. In the long run, a negative EV will ruin you. But context matters. Say you play hold'em and you have Ace high and your opponent is pretending to have a Flush with 3 Spades showing on the board. Mathematically, your EV is ridiculous, but if you suspect the guy is bluffing that's where you'll make a lot of chips. EV is just a part of the scheme.
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