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S2000magician
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Quote:
On 2014-01-01 21:25, mastermindreader wrote:
Quote:
On 2014-01-01 20:11, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:
Quote:
On 2014-01-01 18:49, LobowolfXXX wrote:
Alas, despite my Canadian heritage, I'm not a hockey fan. :o

OMG. It's true! America is a cult! Call the de-programmers!

Not all of us! I'll take a shot:

Gold Medal: Canada
Silver Medal: Russia
Bronze Medal: USA

A trifecta!
mastermindreader
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Yep. None of those weaselly point spread and odds for me! (In fact I'm going against odds a bit here as Russia is the early favorite to take the Gold.)

And I'll take it even a step further in homage to Criswell. The Gold medal final will be highly controversial and key Canadian players will be thrown out for trumped up reasons, infuriating the crowd and inspiring the out-matched Canadians to victory.
Tom Cutts
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On 2014-01-01 21:29, Pakar Ilusi wrote:
And we will make the worldwide news. Smile
Being exposed as a fake! A fraud! A phony!
magicfish
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Justin Beiber will do something incredibly stupid..............er
S2000magician
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On 2014-01-01 18:21, mastermindreader wrote:
Quote:
On 2014-01-01 16:13, S2000magician wrote:
Quote:
On 2014-01-01 15:49, mastermindreader wrote:
Lobo- not to be a nitpicker- but a point spread is not a prediction any more than the over/under reflects the actual total score that bookmakers foresee. (Both numbers are simply created in the hope that they will balance out the betting for both teams.)

MMR - not to be a nitpicker - but a point spread (and an over/under) is a prediction. It's not a prediction of the score that bookmakers foresee; it is a prediction of the betting public's 50/50 winning margin. Both numbers are occasionally adjusted when the bookmakers' prediction of the betting public's proclivities proves to be amiss.

In mentalism that's technically a two-way out and not a prediction. The question is WHO will win the game.

One question is who will win the game. Another question is what the margin of victory will be. A third is what the total points scored will be. A fourth is what point spread will get the betting public to split their dollars evenly between the favorite and the underdog. A fifth is what over/under will get the betting public to split their dollars evenly between the over and the under. For the oddsmakers, these last two are the only ones that matter. For the fans, one of the other three is likely most important.

I disagree that the point spread is not a prediction; it most certainly is. If the oddsmakers change it, then they're abandoning their original prediction (admitting that they got it wrong), and replacing it with another prediction (with more evidence to support it than the previous prediction). This is fundamentally no different from someone predicting that the world will end on February 16, 2017; when they awaken on February 17, 2017, they change their prediction, but the first one was a prediction nonetheless.
Magnus Eisengrim
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What I want to know is why nobody bets on the standard deviation of the per-game passing yardage over the course of a season. Now THERE's some action.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
S2000magician
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Quote:
On 2014-01-01 23:40, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:
What I want to know is why nobody bets on the standard deviation of the per-game passing yardage over the course of a season. Now THERE's some action.

The vig's too high.
Pakar Ilusi
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Quote:
On 2014-01-01 22:52, Tom Cutts wrote:
Quote:
On 2014-01-01 21:29, Pakar Ilusi wrote:
And we will make the worldwide news. Smile
Being exposed as a fake! A fraud! A phony!


Smile
"Dreams aren't a matter of Chance but a matter of Choice." -DC-
mastermindreader
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Quote:
On 2014-01-01 23:22, S2000magician wrote:
Quote:
On 2014-01-01 18:21, mastermindreader wrote:
Quote:
On 2014-01-01 16:13, S2000magician wrote:
Quote:
On 2014-01-01 15:49, mastermindreader wrote:
Lobo- not to be a nitpicker- but a point spread is not a prediction any more than the over/under reflects the actual total score that bookmakers foresee. (Both numbers are simply created in the hope that they will balance out the betting for both teams.)

MMR - not to be a nitpicker - but a point spread (and an over/under) is a prediction. It's not a prediction of the score that bookmakers foresee; it is a prediction of the betting public's 50/50 winning margin. Both numbers are occasionally adjusted when the bookmakers' prediction of the betting public's proclivities proves to be amiss.

In mentalism that's technically a two-way out and not a prediction. The question is WHO will win the game.

One question is who will win the game. Another question is what the margin of victory will be. A third is what the total points scored will be. A fourth is what point spread will get the betting public to split their dollars evenly between the favorite and the underdog. A fifth is what over/under will get the betting public to split their dollars evenly between the over and the under. For the oddsmakers, these last two are the only ones that matter. For the fans, one of the other three is likely most important.

I disagree that the point spread is not a prediction; it most certainly is. If the oddsmakers change it, then they're abandoning their original prediction (admitting that they got it wrong), and replacing it with another prediction (with more evidence to support it than the previous prediction). This is fundamentally no different from someone predicting that the world will end on February 16, 2017; when they awaken on February 17, 2017, they change their prediction, but the first one was a prediction nonetheless.


I think you may have missed my explanatory post to Lobo, in which I wrote:

Quote:
I'm a showman, Lobo, predicting the winner is far more direct than a mathematically-based educated guess of the correct point spread.


I prognosticate by foreseeing or influencing a future outcome (usually the latter as inspired visions are too often the side-effects of something I ate, drank,or otherwise ingested).

You see, in my world, a prediction has a somewhat different connotation than in yours. We come right out and TELL you EXACTLY what's going to happen and the more accurate and detailed the prediction, the better.
:eek:
LobowolfXXX
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There may have been some confusion...I wasn't predicting what the point spread would be; I was predicting who the point spread winners would be. It's more detailed (and more accurate if correct) to say "Stanford -7" (Stanford will win by more than 7 points) than to merely pick Stanford to win the game.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
S2000magician
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Quote:
On 2014-01-02 06:39, mastermindreader wrote:
I think you may have missed my explanatory post to Lobo, in which I wrote:

Quote:
I'm a showman, Lobo, predicting the winner is far more direct than a mathematically-based educated guess of the correct point spread.


I prognosticate by foreseeing or influencing a future outcome (usually the latter as inspired visions are too often the side-effects of something I ate, drank,or otherwise ingested).

You see, in my world, a prediction has a somewhat different connotation than in yours. We come right out and TELL you EXACTLY what's going to happen and the more accurate and detailed the prediction, the better.
:eek:

I think that our connotations of a prediction are the same. You can TELL me EXACTLY what's going to happen by saying, for example, "Stanford will win by more than 7 points." Or you could predict the final score: Stanford 28, Michigan State 17.

(You'd have been wrong either way, alas.)
satellite23
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On 2014-01-01 15:49, mastermindreader wrote:

And New England has had some notable chokes in recent Super Bowls. Remember the Giants?


Ugh...don't remind me. Not once, but twice. The 2007/2008 Super Bowl had to be one of the greatest of all time, IMO. Even though I absolutely hated the Patriots losing, I had to give props to Eli and his team.
Dennis Michael
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2014 wil be like 2013 but more government control and broke.
Dennis Michael
stoneunhinged
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On 2014-01-01 18:21, mastermindreader wrote:

Personally, I don't think anyone does predictions as wonderfully as Criswell did. From his book, Criswell Predicts! From Now Until the Year 2000:

Quote:
The Destruction Of Denver, Colorado

I predict that this catastrophe will take place during the tourist season and the fun-loving people in the amusement zone will suddenly find their day of pleasure turned into one of horror. A roller coaster will rise and sway, throwing cars and occupants to the ground below. A Ferris wheel will collapse and carry many children to untimely deaths. A penny arcade will become a dungeon of doom, a canopy of a merry-go-round will plunge down upon its most innocent riders. I predict only silence will reign where there was once laughter and gaiety. The citizenry of this Colorado city will find themselves enveloped in a jelly-like substance that was once brick, concrete, steel and lumber. They will be unable to escape for it will be impossible to cut through or tear this substance. Although soft and pliable it will still retain the strength and weight formerly possessed. I predict in the outskirts the conditions will not be as serious but fleeing people will find themselves mired in roadways and hardly able to move.

I predict that scientists from all over the world will be called upon to help but no one will be able to offer relief for they will not be able to conquer this terrible force, this mysterious force from outer space. Gradually, as conditions ease survivors will be evacuated but this will become a dead city and will never again be reborn. I predict this unfortunate community will be a victim of elements beyond our control and will always be remembered until the end of time. I predict the name of the city will be Denver, Colorado. The date: June 9, 1989.

The Great Drought And Flood

I predict that in the year 1977 the face of the earth will be completely changed. Rain will not fall for a period of ten months. I predict that our great lakes will become beds of sand and rivers will slow down to a trickle. … The results of this drought will be catastrophic. I predict starvation, disease, insanity and death on an unprecedented scale. Hospitals will be overburdened and the death rate will be so high that the dead will remain unburied for weeks at a time. This will be known as the era of the black death, the twentieth-century black death. I predict that New York City will become a ghost town with industry at a standstill, for power will go dead, subways will be emptied and out of service, and the entire transportation system of this once steaming metropolis will be totally crippled. The populace will leave by the thousands in their search for water. The nation’s highways will be filled with helpless, struggling people.

In the great Midwest, I predict that the dust bowl of Kansas will be the death trap for countless humans and animals. Farms, fields and homesteads will be covered by mountains of sand and dust and no form of life can exist.

Meteor Destroys London

London, England, will be the target of this heartless killer from outer space. The meteor will strike in a heavily populated sector of London and will hit with unprecedented force, rocking the earth for hundreds of miles and slightly shifting the position of the earth. Shocks will be felt as far away as Paris, Lisbon, Denmark, Australia, India, China, South Africa, South America, and Washington, D.C. I predict that the once proud city of London will be a tomb of death. Entire slum areas will be completely wiped out. Date: October 18, 1988.

Men Become Cannibals

I predict an outburst of cannibalism that will terrorize the population of one of the industrial sites in the state of Pennsylvania—Pittsburgh. Mass mournings will be held for the victims. A smile will be unknown. The fate of this city of Pittsburgh will never be forgotten… Date: November 28 to December 21, 1980.

Interplanetary

Las Vegas, Nevada, March 10, 1990: The very first Interplanetary Convention will be held in the new Convention Center on the famed Strip with colony citizens of Mars, Venus, Neptune and the Moon in full representation; Governor Sawyer will make the opening welcome address

The End of the World

The end of the world, it is written in Criswell Predicts, will take place Wednesday, Aug. 18, 1999. That day, every point on earth will be covered by a black rainbow—not just any black rainbow, mind you, but “a jet-black rainbow; an ebony rainbow; a black rainbow which will signify the coming suffocation of our world. This black rainbow will seemingly bring about, through some mysterious force beyond our comprehension, a lack of oxygen. It will draw the oxygen from our atmosphere, as a huge snake encircling the world and feeding upon the oxygen which we need to exist. Hour after hour, it will grow worse. And we will grow weaker. It is through this that we will be so weakened that when the final end arrives, we will go silently, we will go gasping for breath, and then there will be only silence on the earth.”




This is absolutely beautiful!

If only the book of Revelation could be so clear....
Magnus Eisengrim
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Quote:
On 2014-01-01 23:42, S2000magician wrote:
Quote:
On 2014-01-01 23:40, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:
What I want to know is why nobody bets on the standard deviation of the per-game passing yardage over the course of a season. Now THERE's some action.

The vig's too high.


:)
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
tommy
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I was talking to God the other day and said he never created the universe but that he was just flying around in space once upon a tme and came across it and he thought what WTF is that! Well he couldn't figure it all out himself and so he created man to figure it all out for him. He had just nipped back to ask me what progress we have made? He has now flown back off into space. saying he will be back later. I predict he will not be back this year but at least we now know why we are here.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
Magnus Eisengrim
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On 2014-01-03 11:18, tommy wrote:
I was talking to God the other day and said he never created the universe but that he was just flying around in space once upon a tme and came across it and he thought what WTF is that! Well he couldn't figure it all out himself and so he created man to figure it all out for him. He had just nipped back to ask me what progress we have made? He has now flown back off into space. saying he will be back later. I predict he will not be back this year but at least we now know why we are here.


Ah. In the beginning was the Word. This answers your other question.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
tommy
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Cardboard box's are likely to rise in price this year, according to a snapshot of views of the UK's top economists from the corner of the street.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
LobowolfXXX
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On 2014-01-01 19:49, mastermindreader wrote:
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On 2014-01-01 18:46, LobowolfXXX wrote:
I'm still trying figure out why you (apparently) thought picking the right team to win was more of a prediction than picking the right team to cover.

I'm leaning Denver over Seattle in the Super Bowl, but of course I'll wait to see what the Thought Dial says.


I'm a showman, Lobo, predicting the winner is far more direct than a mathematically-based educated guess of the correct point spread.

But if Slim's Thought Dial picks Denver, Seattle will be the sure bet. Smile

Denver will need to do better, though, then they did in their only game (preseason) against Seattle this year, which they lost 40 to 10.


On a side note, the Super Bowl that I'd LIKE to see (my Raiders not participating) is Alex Smith's Chiefs beating Colin Kaepernick's 49ers. I wasn't a fan of the decision to give Kaepernick Smith's starting job last year.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
mastermindreader
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Every Seahawk fan enjoys 49ers losses. Going to be great fun to watch them play in sub-zero Green Bay tomorrow.
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