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S2000magician Inner circle Yorba Linda, CA 3465 Posts |
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On Aug 6, 2014, balducci wrote: Yes: I'd meant to type that the EUR declines 6% relative to the USD. My fingers weren't listening. Sorry for the confusion. |
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S2000magician Inner circle Yorba Linda, CA 3465 Posts |
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On Aug 6, 2014, LobowolfXXX wrote: w_s_anderson knows a lot about finance, as does balducci. They keep me honest. (When they catch me, that is.) |
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balducci Loyal user Canada 227 Posts |
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On Aug 5, 2014, General_Magician wrote: Back to Chris Kyle for a moment ... http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morni......history/ "Kyle had another story to tell. This one referred to the vacuum of authority in New Orleans following Katrina, when the city slipped into chaos. According to the New Yorker and several military publications, Kyle and a few other SEALs drank late in San Diego late one night in early 2012. “The SEALs began telling stories, and Kyle offered a shocking one,” the New Yorker reported. “…He and another sniper traveled to New Orleans, set up on top of the Superdome, and proceed to shoot dozens of armed residents who were contributing to the chaos.” The magazine said one conversation participant said Kyle “claimed to have shot thirty men on his own,” while another said Kyle and the other killed 30 between them." Either he was a liar or a criminal and terrorist, take your pick.
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16532 Posts |
The public, they are the fish in this game. The problem is that there are many like Bill who know more about this stock market game than the public.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21214 Posts |
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On Aug 6, 2014, balducci wrote: And auto correct.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16532 Posts |
Life Lessons From "The Stupid gambler".
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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General_Magician Special user United States 707 Posts |
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I'm not surprised. I don't agree with in that you say, buying foreign currency doesn't hedge against your native currency. I guess you can argue that inflation and currency risk are intertwined. It certainly makes sense. Quote:
It sounds as though when you use the phrase "currency risk", you mean "inflation risk". Is that correct? If not, then what, exactly, do you mean by "currency risk"? By currency risk, I mean that your investments in a foreign company is also investing in it's currency. So, if that foreign currency declines in value against the US dollar, then you lose money because of that decline in value against the US dollar (given that my native currency is the US dollar). But then if that is the case, wouldn't a foreign company charge more for it's goods and services then based on what you have stated before and make up the difference in it's decline in value if that decline in value is tied to inflation? Now you say the US dollar is a reserve currency which I have heard about this before. Not exactly sure what a "reserve currency is" and what that means, but I think it's pretty safe to say that the US dollar could very well cease to be a reserve currency as well and the US currency could very well cease to be stable. There are no guarantees in that respect. I think it would be foolish to assume that it will be a guarantee that the US dollar will always be a reserve currency and will always be stable. Given that their are no guarantees in investments, having that diversification into some foreign currency hedges against the risk of the US currency and vice versa. Quote:
The most common reason is an inflation differential: inflation in the US is higher than inflation in the Eurozone. This is explained by purchasing power parity (PPP). Another possible reason is a difference in real interest rates: real interest rates in the US are higher than real interest rates in the Eurozone. This is explained by (real) interest rate parity (IRP). Real interest rates in developed economies rarely differ by much, so we'll go with the inflation explanation. Now this makes some sense. However, what about bonds invested in both foreign and domestic companies? Bond interest payments don't keep up with inflation, yet, you have bonds invested in both US and foreign currencies? Another question is what about in the above scenario in which interest rates in the US are higher than real interest rates in Europe? It looks like from your example, that you are saying inflation plays a role in currency risk. I appreciate you responding and providing some clarification and explaining some of your points and the reasoning behind it. Quote:
"Kyle had another story to tell. This one referred to the vacuum of authority in New Orleans following Katrina, when the city slipped into chaos. According to the New Yorker and several military publications, Kyle and a few other SEALs drank late in San Diego late one night in early 2012. “The SEALs began telling stories, and Kyle offered a shocking one,” the New Yorker reported. “…He and another sniper traveled to New Orleans, set up on top of the Superdome, and proceed to shoot dozens of armed residents who were contributing to the chaos.” The magazine said one conversation participant said Kyle “claimed to have shot thirty men on his own,” while another said Kyle and the other killed 30 between them." I am not sure if this story is true or not, it might be true, you never know. I hope it's not true. He could have been telling tall tales and embellishing while drunk, not uncommon for a lot of soldiers. Sometimes though, you hear some incredible tales thaat can't be proven and later on they turn out to be true. Typically, you have rules of engagement that are issued by the military and you have to abide by those rules of engagement. Sometimes that doesn't happen though when you are in a very dangerous situation because abiding strictly by those rules of engagement could very well get yourself or your comrades killed. Soldiers fight for each other first before anything else and most just simply want to get back home alive and survive. Nobody is trying to be a hero and most are not trying to rack up on kills. But, you do get some tall tales and embellishment at times in a bar when soldiers drink and are drunk. However, that being said, I believe that Ventura got punched out because I know how sensitive the loss of fellow soldiers and comrades are. Somebody who doesn't understand how angry and upset a unit is over losing one of their own and starts talking could easily find themselves getting punched out. It's a very very sensitive time when a unit loses a few of their own and you have to be careful what you say around the killed soldier's comrades and friends and I can see Jesse Ventura running his mouth partly because he didn't understand the gravity of the situation and he was ignorant to this and partly because of his oversized ego. In the infantry, during war time, there is no room for an oversized ego or a primadonna. That kind of person gets himself and his fellow soldiers killed. Given some of Jesse Ventura's nature and his political views and his outsized ego, Kyle's description in his book of "scruff face" it certainly seems very plausible that this incident really occurred even though a jury has decided otherwise. Just because a jury said Jesse was defamed, doesn't mean the incident never occurred and Kyle lied about it. Navy SEALs are slso some of the best soldiers our country has to offer and some pretty bad dudes. Another thing, one of the reasons why I am alive today is because of my fellow veterans. Chris Kyle was deemed to have served honorably by his country and he is one of my own. Because my fellow vets helped to keep me alive in war time, I am extremely loyal to them and I tend to give my fellow vet the benefit of the doubt and stick by them. I'll even stick by them when they are wrong sometimes because our lives depended on each other watching out for each other during war time.
"Never fear shadows. They simply mean there is a light shining somewhere nearby." -unknown
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16532 Posts |
As we know relations between Russia and the West are at their lowest level since the Cold War, with each side accusing the other of orchestrating events in Ukraine, and the United States and European Union imposing sanctions on Russia. At the big meeting here in London last week they were saying that if Russia go to war with Ukraine then it could either accidentally or deliberately result in wars with other bordering countries. Moreover if Russia did march into Europe there is little anyone could do about it according to a general at the meeting. There now calls for NATO to improve the defences against Russia etcetera. Russia at the monument are massing troops on the border and having large games there and all. Russia being boxed in with these sanctions. it reminds me of Japan being boxed in before they attracted Pearl Harbour. It seems to me that Tweedledum and Tweedledee have “agreed” to have battle soon. The point of which being to reform the United Nations yet again. After the World War 1 they set up the League of Nations, then after World War 11 they reformed it to the UN, after this coming war they the will make the UN a World Governance and it will save the world from global warming and all that. In the meantime millions will be killed of course, to help reduce the population the population. It will help get rid of the unemployed etcetera. So there is no need to worry about the climate. So the military industrial complex stocks and shares ought to do well.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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mastermindreader 1949 - 2017 Seattle, WA 12586 Posts |
Is it the Illuminati again, tommy?
The first half of your post made sense, the second half is pure paranoid conspiracy theory. Been listening to Alex Jones again? |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16532 Posts |
No Bob, just the parliamentary committee meeting, the military chiefs of staff, NATO and Obama.
Today investors' nerves were tested by reports that Putin has banned or curbed agricultural imports from countries imposing sanctions on Russia over the crisis in Ukraine and because Putin had gathered thousands of troops on Ukraine's eastern border, stocks and share fell all over the place. Russian officials are also reported to be considering banning European airlines from flying to Asia so sell any stock you have quick.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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mastermindreader 1949 - 2017 Seattle, WA 12586 Posts |
Right- so those folks you mentioned want to make the UN a world governing body? Call Alex Jones. I'm sure he'd love to have you as a guest.
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General_Magician Special user United States 707 Posts |
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On Aug 7, 2014, mastermindreader wrote: Aren't like Alex Jones and Jesse Ventura good friends? Don't they like both believe in crazy, outlandish conspiracy theories? Alex Jones and Jesse Ventura with their crackpot conspiracy theories are two peas in a pod.
"Never fear shadows. They simply mean there is a light shining somewhere nearby." -unknown
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S2000magician Inner circle Yorba Linda, CA 3465 Posts |
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On Aug 6, 2014, General_Magician wrote: But what, exactly, do you mean by "currency risk"? What is the risk, exactly? What is the uncertain future situation that you describe as "currency risk"? This isn't an academic exercise; I'm genuinely interested in what you mean by that phrase. And I think you should be, too; if you can define exactly what the uncertain future event/situation is, you are better equiped to hedge it. For example, there are a number of risks associated with investments in bonds; amongst them are: Interest rate risk: the risk that the bond's yield to maturity changes, which will result in a change in the value of the bond. Yield curve risk: the risk that the shape of the yield curve will change (e.g., it may flatten, steepen, hump, butterfly), which will result in a different change in yield to maturity for bonds of different maturities, which will result in (different) changes in the values of different bonds. Default risk: the risk that the issuer will not make timely coupon or principle payments, which will result in uncertain cash flows for the bondholder. Inflation risk: the risk that inflation will be different than was expected when the bond was issued, which will result in a change in purchasing power for the bondholder. Credit risk: the risk that the credit rating on the bond will change, which will result in a change in the value of the bond. Spread risk: the risk that the spread (difference in required yield for a risky bond compared to a risk-free bond of the same maturity) will change, which will result in a change in the value of the bond. Event risk: the risk that some event (e.g., a hurricane, earthquake, expropriation of assets) will occur that will affect the issuer's ability to make timely coupon and priciple payments, which will result in uncertain cash flows for the bondholder. These are specific risks, and it is possible to hedge against (most, if not all of) them, but each hedge must be tailored to the risk it is hedging. Similarly, it is (likely) possible to hedge "currency risk", as long as you have a good understanding of what that is. "Having all of your assets denominated in a single currency" is not the definition of a risk. |
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mastermindreader 1949 - 2017 Seattle, WA 12586 Posts |
Yes- they are both into conspiracy theories, but I don't know that they are friends. But what's your point? It has nothing to do with the fact that Chris Kyle defamed Ventura by falsely accusing him of making derogatory remarks about SEALS. And, while we're at it, what is your response to the fact that Kyle, who you said would never lie, did in fact lie about donating all of the profits of his book to veterans' groups? (Or how about the story Kyle told about shooting people from the roof of the New Orleans Super Dome?)
Is Kyle, perhaps, a pea in another sort of pod? |
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S2000magician Inner circle Yorba Linda, CA 3465 Posts |
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On Aug 6, 2014, General_Magician wrote: A reserve currency, broadly, is a currency that central banks in many countries hold as part of their capital reserves, and use for international trade. It is, in effect, the world's currency. Yes, it is possible for the USD to cease being a reserve currency. Should that happen in our lifetime (or our children's lifetime, or their children's lifetime), something catastrophic wil have to occur to cause the change; should that happen, the last of your worries will be which fiat currency to hold: likely none of them will be worth anything. You live in Atlanta and work and shop almost exclusively in the US. Do any of your clients pay you in anything other than USD? When you pay your rent, pay for your insurance or utilities, buy groceries, clothes, gas, playing cards, scotch, cars, furniture, and so on, do you pay in anything other than USD? The answer, I strongly suspect, is "No." Therefore, no matter where you invest your money, you need your return in USD, and if you should invest it somewhere other than the US, you will have to convert your USD to another currency (at the prevailing exchange rate) when you invest, and convert from that other currency to USD when your investment ends. Thus, your entire investment is subject to the vicissitudes of the exchange rates, and you've done nothing to mitigate that. |
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S2000magician Inner circle Yorba Linda, CA 3465 Posts |
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On Aug 6, 2014, General_Magician wrote: Whew! Quote:
On Aug 6, 2014, General_Magician wrote: What about them? Quote:
On Aug 6, 2014, General_Magician wrote: It depends the nature of the bonds. TIPS, for example, has payments that change with inflation. There are inflation-protected government bonds denominated in other currencies as well. I'm not really sure what your question is. Quote:
On Aug 6, 2014, General_Magician wrote: If USD interest rates are higher than EUR rates, according to interest rate parity the USD will depreciate with respect to the EUR. I cannot say if inflation plays a role in currency risk because we still haven't established what exactly you mean by currency risk. Quote:
On Aug 6, 2014, General_Magician wrote: My pleasure. |
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General_Magician Special user United States 707 Posts |
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It has nothing to do with the fact that Chris Kyle defamed Ventura by falsely accusing him of making derogatory remarks about SEALS. And, while we're at it, what is your response to the fact that Kyle, who you said would never lie, did in fact lie about donating all of the profits of his book to veterans' groups? (Or how about the story Kyle told about shooting people from the roof of the New Orleans Super Dome?) Well, I am not surprised that Kyle did not donate all the profits of his book to veterans group if that is indeed established as a fact and is true. Greed seems to get the best of most people. And the story about shooting people from the New Orleans Super Dome I hope is not true, but then again, you never know. I have talked to some people who were in New Orleans in the aftermath of Katrina at the time and their was a lot of lawlessness and chaos. Some New Orleans cops found themselves in trouble as well from the law and I was told that their was a lot of lawlessness at the time. It could also be possible that Kyle was simply telling a tall tale while drinking with his buddies at a bar. That happens a lot too. But I personally believe Jesse Ventura got punched out because from what I have been reading in the news about what Kyle wrote in his book about the incident, it sounds very accurate as to describing the Jesse Ventura I have seen in the news and at times on TV. I have also read that their has been a lot of SEALs that testified against Jesse Ventura at the trial and yet somehow the jury still found Kyle guilty of defamation. Let's keep in mind too, that Jesse was suing somebody who wasn't around to defend himself in court either. I imagine it's much easier to sue somebody who isn't around to defend himself. I know some people are ignorant to the pain and anger that comes with losing a fellow soldiers and will say some things that are out of line and touch a nerve that will spark a fight. It's not too hard to set people off by saying the wrong thing after their buddy has been killed by the enemy. Jesse sure fits that bill. Not only that, but juries have been known to make mistakes and it happens far more often than you think and don't be so naive as to think that there are times when the jury gets it wrong. There has been many times when that has happened. The truth doesn't always come out in the courtroom and lawyers are very good at playing off peoples emotions and reframing the jury's perceptions about the truth of what happened. It's their job to defend and win their case for their client, not to find the truth. And lawyers are very good at nitpicking witnesses and such to try and discredit them in the eyes of the jury or the legal system, even if those witnesses were indeed telling the truth all along. And before you go attacking the credibility of Chris Kyle, I would also consider the credibility of Jesse Ventura who is not exactly the most credible person. It doesn't seem like Jesse Ventura is well liked in the SEAL community and if he was so proud to be a SEAL it sure seems odd that he would alienate himself from those SEALs and don't those guys are going to forget this lawsuit anytime soon or that he will be welcome at any reunions. Seems like Jesse valued himself more than his brothers or the SEAL community. Politics also plays a role too in the outcome of a court case and it's not necessarily the truth that comes out and I could see politics playing a role in this defamation case rather than the fair and objective truth of the matter. Let me ask you Bob, do you think OJ was guilty when he was put on trial for those famous murdeers in LA (Ron Goldman and his OJ's ex wife)? Or do you think the justice system got it right when OJ was acquitted of murdering Ron Goldman and his ex wife? Do you think OJ's Simpson status played a role in his murder trial at the time? What about Jesse Ventura and his status? Do you think his status played a role in Kyle's trial? It sure comes across as Kyle being the real deal warrior here and Jesse Ventura using his status to cover up the truth that he got punched out by a true warrior and then trying to put Kyle "back in his place" and to "shut him up" by using the court system. Quote:
Is Kyle, perhaps, a pea in another sort of pod? What exactly do you mean here and what are you trying to say?
"Never fear shadows. They simply mean there is a light shining somewhere nearby." -unknown
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mastermindreader 1949 - 2017 Seattle, WA 12586 Posts |
Facts seem to be irrelevant to you once you have your mind fixated on something. You stated in an earlier post that Kyle would never lie. When confronted with evidence that he did, in fact, lie, you just ignore them. Once again, a textbook example of cognitive dissonance in action.
And what does the Simpson criminal case have to do with the Ventura civil defamation suit? (Hint: nothing) And how did your bringing up the Ventura case in the first place have any relevance whatsoever to the subject of your own thread? |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16532 Posts |
The speed at which money flows in International finance today, since the big bang, has brought with it a situation where our fates are interconnected. In a global economy, nations rise, or fall, together. As we have seen in the financial crisis of 2009. That criss leaves the world still still in a mess and fragile state. Those are facts. They cannot be denied. The boys on the boys hill have shouting it from the rooftops. So what do you think these so called leaders of ours who have have shouting this stuff from the rooftops do next? They put sanctions on Russia, which will punish the America, Europe as well as Russia. The, our leaders, bring about a new cold war and maybe a big hot one. At the same time we have the magic financial advisers, promoting debt and gambling in the market. Then we have on top of this Robin and his merry cloaked green out to reverse the industrial revolution and take us all back to Sherwood forest before burn at the high stakes. One moment they tell you the world in ending and the next they advise long term investments-.divestment more like. And they don't even know that Alex Jones and Jesse Ventura are friends!
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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Pecan_Creek Veteran user The Nation of TEXAS! 323 Posts |
Ah, But through out the various crises the US Economy has been the least volatile. While I'm no fan of big corporate capitalism , I'm certainly glad the US corporations are better at it than anyone else. And our Fed is better at evening out the rough spots than similar bodies in other systems.
Basically , if the US dollar falls to unusable value, the whole world is gonna be a whole lot worse off. Edit: And our snipers are better shots , too. |
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