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The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » Not very magical, still... » » China says "NO MOON LANDING EVIDENCE" (11 Likes) Printer Friendly Version

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Dannydoyle
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It is always the same with hypothetical questions. Fact remains it DID spur tech period. The rest is whatever people want to debate.
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Jonathan Townsend
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On Oct 5, 2014, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:...

The important question is ...whether the same investment, applied somewhere else, would bring about more important gains. ...


which without access to time machines and alternate universes is meaningless beyond a basic premise for fantasy writers.
...to all the coins I've dropped here
landmark
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Quote:
On Oct 5, 2014, Jonathan Townsend wrote:
Quote:
On Oct 5, 2014, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:...

The important question is ...whether the same investment, applied somewhere else, would bring about more important gains. ...


which without access to time machines and alternate universes is meaningless beyond a basic premise for fantasy writers.

No need for time machines ; testing the hypothesis in real time would be more fruitful.
landmark
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On Oct 5, 2014, Dannydoyle wrote:
Yea it clearly had many benefits.

Let's not forget TANG.
mastermindreader
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Landmark- Are you suggesting we abandon the space program?
Magnus Eisengrim
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Quote:
On Oct 5, 2014, Jonathan Townsend wrote:
Quote:
On Oct 5, 2014, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:...

The important question is ...whether the same investment, applied somewhere else, would bring about more important gains. ...


which without access to time machines and alternate universes is meaningless beyond a basic premise for fantasy writers.


We can handle counterfactuals without time machines. Imperfectly. But we can do it.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
Dannydoyle
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Quote:
On Oct 6, 2014, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:
Quote:
On Oct 5, 2014, Jonathan Townsend wrote:
Quote:
On Oct 5, 2014, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:...

The important question is ...whether the same investment, applied somewhere else, would bring about more important gains. ...


which without access to time machines and alternate universes is meaningless beyond a basic premise for fantasy writers.


We can handle counterfactuals without time machines. Imperfectly. But we can do it.


They are nothing of use. Simple mind experiments and nothing more.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
mastermindreader
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A problem, though, is that to accurately test that hypothesis you'd have to do it in a way that didn't use any of the technological advances that wouldn't exist today but for the space program. And since everything is incredibly inter-related, as shown beautifully in the thread about the wolves in Yellowstone, I think that would be pretty much impossible.
landmark
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On Oct 6, 2014, mastermindreader wrote:
Landmark- Are you suggesting we abandon the space program?

You'll have to pry my Tang from my cold dead fingers!

Actually I am a fan of space exploration. I heard an interesting guy on the radio talking about a book called something like The Case for Manned Flight to Mars. He argues that NASA needs to focus very specifically on a manned Mars mission. He claims it's doable within a decade but NASA would have to reprioritize its current programs. I will see if I can find a link.
Dannydoyle
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On Oct 6, 2014, landmark wrote:
Quote:
On Oct 5, 2014, Jonathan Townsend wrote:
Quote:
On Oct 5, 2014, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:...

The important question is ...whether the same investment, applied somewhere else, would bring about more important gains. ...


which without access to time machines and alternate universes is meaningless beyond a basic premise for fantasy writers.

No need for time machines ; testing the hypothesis in real time would be more fruitful.


How can you test NOT going to the moon and the development that would have happened in real time exactly?
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
mastermindreader
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Thanks for clarifying. But I have to admit, I always hated Tang.
Magnus Eisengrim
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On Oct 6, 2014, Dannydoyle wrote:
Quote:
On Oct 6, 2014, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:
Quote:
On Oct 5, 2014, Jonathan Townsend wrote:
Quote:
On Oct 5, 2014, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:...

The important question is ...whether the same investment, applied somewhere else, would bring about more important gains. ...


which without access to time machines and alternate universes is meaningless beyond a basic premise for fantasy writers.


We can handle counterfactuals without time machines. Imperfectly. But we can do it.


They are nothing of use. Simple mind experiments and nothing more.


Not at all. You should project the likely consequences of your actions (e.g. funding a research program, changing a tax structure, invading a country,...) before taking action. You need to compare scenarios. You'll never be perfect in your projections, but it's wildly irresponsible not to do it.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
mastermindreader
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True. It's important to consider consequences BEFORE you do something. But here we're talking about considering alternate consequences AFTER something's already been done.
landmark
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Image


http://www.amazon.com/Case-Mars-Plan-Set......for+mars


As for the other question: "The important question is ...whether the same investment, applied somewhere else, would bring about more important gains. ..."

We are not looking for the same gains; only more important gains. If I do A and see consequence B, and then later do C with consequence D, it's theoretically possible to compare B with D.
mastermindreader
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Maybe, but the gains in B (such as miniaturization and advances in computing, for example) would inevitably have an effect on the later test, C, and it's consequences. Kind of like the butterfly effect. Everything ultimately effects everything else.
Dannydoyle
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On Oct 6, 2014, mastermindreader wrote:
True. It's important to consider consequences BEFORE you do something. But here we're talking about considering alternate consequences AFTER something's already been done.


Thank you Bob this is EXACTLY my point. In the decision process of whether it is worth it to go or not perhaps it is a good idea. But as you point out alternate consequences AFTER the fact are absolutely useless.
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Magnus Eisengrim
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On Oct 6, 2014, mastermindreader wrote:
True. It's important to consider consequences BEFORE you do something. But here we're talking about considering alternate consequences AFTER something's already been done.


Obviously, we can't change the past. But it is perfectly reasonable (and wise) to retrospectively analyze what might have been.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
Dannydoyle
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No it isn't that valuable. Invariably it becomes hypothetical scenarios based on what a belief system or ideology wants to see in the data and then they cherry pick and confirm it. Happens on this board all the time. Then you get revisionist history and it is a useless pastime.
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
landmark
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Maybe, but the gains in B (such as miniaturization and advances in computing, for example) would inevitably have an effect on the later test, C, and it's consequences. Kind of like the butterfly effect. Everything ultimately effects everything else.


Fair enough, we're not necessarily comparing independent events. Still we make these kinds of judgments all the time.

Suppose someone says the way to educational nirvana is dismantling public education and instituting 100% charter schools (NOT trying to get into an argument on that here now. Just picking the first example in my head.) Effectively what s/he saying is that the public school system (A) causes outcome (B). So the proposal is, Let's try charter schools (C) for outcome (D). Now it may well be that D would have never happened without A and B, but that doesn't stop one from wanting to test out new ideas and comparing B and D.

Anyway, all this is to state that statements like "the space program resulted in many tech advances" often carries the implication (not necessarily by anyone here) that therefore the best way for tech innovation to advance is through the space program. We often hear similar statements about the military. These are kind of self-fulfilling prophecies.
landmark
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On Oct 6, 2014, Dannydoyle wrote:
No it isn't that valuable. Invariably it becomes hypothetical scenarios based on what a belief system or ideology wants to see in the data and then they cherry pick and confirm it. Happens on this board all the time. Then you get revisionist history and it is a useless pastime.

We may be afield from the original question, but unlike Henry Ford, I disagree that History is bunk.
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