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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21496 Posts 
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It is always the same with hypothetical questions. Fact remains it DID spur tech period. The rest is whatever people want to debate.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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Jonathan Townsend Eternal Order Ossining, NY 27333 Posts
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Quote:
On Oct 5, 2014, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:... which without access to time machines and alternate universes is meaningless beyond a basic premise for fantasy writers.
...to all the coins I've dropped here
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landmark Inner circle within a triangle 5195 Posts
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Quote:
On Oct 5, 2014, Jonathan Townsend wrote: No need for time machines ; testing the hypothesis in real time would be more fruitful.
Click here to get Gerald Deutsch's Perverse Magic: The First Sixteen Years
All proceeds to Open Heart Magic charity. |
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landmark Inner circle within a triangle 5195 Posts
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Quote:
On Oct 5, 2014, Dannydoyle wrote: Let's not forget TANG.
Click here to get Gerald Deutsch's Perverse Magic: The First Sixteen Years
All proceeds to Open Heart Magic charity. |
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mastermindreader 1949 - 2017 Seattle, WA 12587 Posts
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Landmark- Are you suggesting we abandon the space program?
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts
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On Oct 5, 2014, Jonathan Townsend wrote: We can handle counterfactuals without time machines. Imperfectly. But we can do it.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21496 Posts
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Quote:
On Oct 6, 2014, Magnus Eisengrim wrote: They are nothing of use. Simple mind experiments and nothing more.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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mastermindreader 1949 - 2017 Seattle, WA 12587 Posts
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A problem, though, is that to accurately test that hypothesis you'd have to do it in a way that didn't use any of the technological advances that wouldn't exist today but for the space program. And since everything is incredibly inter-related, as shown beautifully in the thread about the wolves in Yellowstone, I think that would be pretty much impossible.
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landmark Inner circle within a triangle 5195 Posts
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Quote:
On Oct 6, 2014, mastermindreader wrote: You'll have to pry my Tang from my cold dead fingers! Actually I am a fan of space exploration. I heard an interesting guy on the radio talking about a book called something like The Case for Manned Flight to Mars. He argues that NASA needs to focus very specifically on a manned Mars mission. He claims it's doable within a decade but NASA would have to reprioritize its current programs. I will see if I can find a link.
Click here to get Gerald Deutsch's Perverse Magic: The First Sixteen Years
All proceeds to Open Heart Magic charity. |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21496 Posts
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Quote:
On Oct 6, 2014, landmark wrote: How can you test NOT going to the moon and the development that would have happened in real time exactly?
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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mastermindreader 1949 - 2017 Seattle, WA 12587 Posts
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Thanks for clarifying. But I have to admit, I always hated Tang.
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts
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On Oct 6, 2014, Dannydoyle wrote: Not at all. You should project the likely consequences of your actions (e.g. funding a research program, changing a tax structure, invading a country,...) before taking action. You need to compare scenarios. You'll never be perfect in your projections, but it's wildly irresponsible not to do it.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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mastermindreader 1949 - 2017 Seattle, WA 12587 Posts
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True. It's important to consider consequences BEFORE you do something. But here we're talking about considering alternate consequences AFTER something's already been done.
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landmark Inner circle within a triangle 5195 Posts
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 http://www.amazon.com/Case-Mars-Plan-Set......for+mars As for the other question: "The important question is ...whether the same investment, applied somewhere else, would bring about more important gains. ..." We are not looking for the same gains; only more important gains. If I do A and see consequence B, and then later do C with consequence D, it's theoretically possible to compare B with D.
Click here to get Gerald Deutsch's Perverse Magic: The First Sixteen Years
All proceeds to Open Heart Magic charity. |
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mastermindreader 1949 - 2017 Seattle, WA 12587 Posts
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Maybe, but the gains in B (such as miniaturization and advances in computing, for example) would inevitably have an effect on the later test, C, and it's consequences. Kind of like the butterfly effect. Everything ultimately effects everything else.
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21496 Posts
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On Oct 6, 2014, mastermindreader wrote: Thank you Bob this is EXACTLY my point. In the decision process of whether it is worth it to go or not perhaps it is a good idea. But as you point out alternate consequences AFTER the fact are absolutely useless.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts
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Quote:
On Oct 6, 2014, mastermindreader wrote: Obviously, we can't change the past. But it is perfectly reasonable (and wise) to retrospectively analyze what might have been.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21496 Posts
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No it isn't that valuable. Invariably it becomes hypothetical scenarios based on what a belief system or ideology wants to see in the data and then they cherry pick and confirm it. Happens on this board all the time. Then you get revisionist history and it is a useless pastime.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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landmark Inner circle within a triangle 5195 Posts
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Quote:
Maybe, but the gains in B (such as miniaturization and advances in computing, for example) would inevitably have an effect on the later test, C, and it's consequences. Kind of like the butterfly effect. Everything ultimately effects everything else. Fair enough, we're not necessarily comparing independent events. Still we make these kinds of judgments all the time. Suppose someone says the way to educational nirvana is dismantling public education and instituting 100% charter schools (NOT trying to get into an argument on that here now. Just picking the first example in my head.) Effectively what s/he saying is that the public school system (A) causes outcome (B). So the proposal is, Let's try charter schools (C) for outcome (D). Now it may well be that D would have never happened without A and B, but that doesn't stop one from wanting to test out new ideas and comparing B and D. Anyway, all this is to state that statements like "the space program resulted in many tech advances" often carries the implication (not necessarily by anyone here) that therefore the best way for tech innovation to advance is through the space program. We often hear similar statements about the military. These are kind of self-fulfilling prophecies.
Click here to get Gerald Deutsch's Perverse Magic: The First Sixteen Years
All proceeds to Open Heart Magic charity. |
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landmark Inner circle within a triangle 5195 Posts
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Quote:
On Oct 6, 2014, Dannydoyle wrote: We may be afield from the original question, but unlike Henry Ford, I disagree that History is bunk.
Click here to get Gerald Deutsch's Perverse Magic: The First Sixteen Years
All proceeds to Open Heart Magic charity. |
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Posted: Oct 5, 2014 09:19 pm 
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