The Magic Café
Username:
Password:
[ Lost Password ]
  [ Forgot Username ]
The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » Magical equations » » How Many? (0 Likes) Printer Friendly Version

landmark
View Profile
Inner circle
within a triangle
5022 Posts

Profile of landmark
You know those kinds of Microsoft interview type questions where they ask you to estimate the number of grains of sand in the world?

Well, here's a little challenge: how many professional magicians are there in the world?

Let's agree to use the following arguably arbitrary definition of professional magician: a performer who makes the majority of their income from performing magic, or selling their own effects.

I guess I'll try and make a stab. Let's say there are 10,000 members of the Café. Let's be generous and say 10% of the membership makes their living from magic. Now let's be generous again and say only one out of ten thousand pros are here are on the Café. That would set an upper limit of 10,000,000.

Now let's be conservative. Let's say only 1% of Café members are pros. And let's say 1 in a 1000 pros are on this board. Then that sets a lower limit of 100,000.

So would a good guess be on the order of 1,000,000?

What do you think?

Jack Shalom
El_Lamo
View Profile
Special user
Canada
589 Posts

Profile of El_Lamo
75,000 (using your definition of professional above, but with the added descriptor: a performer who currently makes the majority of their income from performing magic, or selling their own effects.)

"When You Join The International Brotherhood Of Magicians... You'll walk into a world of entertainment, fellowship and fun. You'll be part of a network of nearly 15,000 magicians"

The above is the actual quote from IBM web site. I would suggest that the number of actual pros in the English-speaking world probably doesn't exceed 15,000.

I know that IBM doesn’t mean that you are a pro, but there are obvious benefits for pros in being members. I would expect some pros to not be members, but I figure the amateurs and hobbyists would at least balance the non-member pros.

So, if there are 15,000 pros in English speaking places then I can’t see there being more than 5 X that or 75,000 pros in the world. (20% of the 6.4 billion in our world use English as a first or second language.)

Cheers – El Lamo

P.S. If you use just English as a first language and the same 15,000) then the total pros could be nearly 200,000.
Life is a system of circumstance presented coincidently in an illusory way.
landmark
View Profile
Inner circle
within a triangle
5022 Posts

Profile of landmark
Thanks El.

Thought this thread would get more replies. Is the topic too boring/silly/unanswerable?

Jack
magicgeorge
View Profile
Inner circle
Belfast
4299 Posts

Profile of magicgeorge
I think it’s pretty hard to work it out from Café members. The percent of pros could probably be worked out by looking at the posts and taking a “guestimation” but there's no clue to how what percent of magicians of the world are members here. It could be anything from 0.5 % to 45%.
A better way of doing it would be to look in the yellow pages. In the UK I'd say about 95% of pro's have an ad in there. So by checking the ratio of magicians to citizens in a few phone book you could probably get a mean average for this country at least. Multiplying your percentage by the counties inhabitants will get you the amount of magicians for the country in question.
Heinz Weber
View Profile
New user
Austria
83 Posts

Profile of Heinz Weber
Like magicgeorge I think, more than 1 out of 1000 magicians are members of the Café. Here in my country are nor so many magicians that have not posted to the Café at least once. Other countries may differ, but I think 1 out of 100 is a better guess. That would lead to a lower limit of 20000.

just my 2 cents
The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » Magical equations » » How Many? (0 Likes)
[ Top of Page ]
All content & postings Copyright © 2001-2021 Steve Brooks. All Rights Reserved.
This page was created in 0.14 seconds requiring 5 database queries.
The views and comments expressed on The Magic Café
are not necessarily those of The Magic Café, Steve Brooks, or Steve Brooks Magic.
> Privacy Statement <

ROTFL Billions and billions served! ROTFL