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Dannyflek
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You are wrong completely , it is 50/50 chance each and everytime you perform it that is a mathematical fact .
You are probably one of those people who think if Black comes up 20 times on the trot at roulette then the next one must be Red .
The wheel has no memory and apart from the zero the Black still has an even chance the same as Red .
If you say I will guess which hand 5 times in a row before you start without fail the odds are greater but each and everytime its 50/50 .
Guessing a card is 52/1 which definitely is more impressive imho .
Which hand is a bit like the Acaan plot , magicians are hell bent on them but to the spectators they are nothing special Smile
atomic111
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Quote:
On Nov 6, 2018, Dannyflek wrote:
You are wrong completely , it is 50/50 chance each and everytime you perform it that is a mathematical fact .
You are probably one of those people who think if Black comes up 20 times on the trot at roulette then the next one must be Red .
The wheel has no memory and apart from the zero the Black still has an even chance the same as Red .
If you say I will guess which hand 5 times in a row before you start without fail the odds are greater but each and everytime its 50/50 .
Guessing a card is 52/1 which definitely is more impressive imho .
Which hand is a bit like the Acaan plot , magicians are hell bent on them but to the spectators they are nothing special Smile


Yes, its 50/50 EACH roll, but only each roll. He does say it gets exponentially harder to do - in a row, so he's not wrong at all. Its simple probability and he says just that. I have a pet peeve with the 50/50 premise when its presented (outside of magic) as a word puzzle. There are people who go to their grave saying the odds of heads coming up 10 times in a row is 50% - that seventh grade word puzzle has led so many people astray from true probability it makes me ill. So much so that I'm wasting both of our times writing this.

1/52 isn't really anything special either if you think about it. Yes its better than 50/50 but its no miracle. I'm not sure the average spectator cares to do probability math in their head either way.
John C
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Well I tried to buy a hugo unit but I'm not waiting. If he can't provide them then in my mind he's too busy doing other stuff and if that's the case he's too busy to really support these things.

I bought a scan 3d got it in two days. Done. I know Craig will be there if anything goes wrong. This guy is a genius.
The ULTIMATE Routine Series: rebirth soon!
Dannyflek
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Atomic111 I agree with your above post but if you have to spell out the maths ie 10 in a row etc is harder it doesn’t make it a great premise imo .
However I love Dan Whites take on the plot but that is a rare exception Smile
SimonTheSorcerer
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Does anyone else have prolems with the distance? I have a really strong coin but with the default settings I have to go near up to 7cm.
gassaox
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Https://youtu.be/hIqfm-F01YQ
If I had it I would use it like this ,good routine
kissdadookie
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Quote:
On Nov 6, 2018, Dannyflek wrote:
You are wrong completely , it is 50/50 chance each and everytime you perform it that is a mathematical fact .
You are probably one of those people who think if Black comes up 20 times on the trot at roulette then the next one must be Red .
The wheel has no memory and apart from the zero the Black still has an even chance the same as Red .
If you say I will guess which hand 5 times in a row before you start without fail the odds are greater but each and everytime its 50/50 .
Guessing a card is 52/1 which definitely is more impressive imho .
Which hand is a bit like the Acaan plot , magicians are hell bent on them but to the spectators they are nothing special Smile


Actually, you've just proven that you actually don't know math. LOL. 50/50 are the odds for one round. It's no longer 50/50 when you do two or more rounds. You don't understand basic mathematical principles. LOL.

Your roulettes example makes no sense because the odds will always be 50/50 for each try. The odds for nailing red 5 times out of 5 is no longer 50/50. Did you not learn basic probability in school? It's called probability distribution. It's not 50/50.
kissdadookie
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Quote:
On Nov 7, 2018, Dannyflek wrote:
Atomic111 I agree with your above post but if you have to spell out the maths ie 10 in a row etc is harder it doesn’t make it a great premise imo .
However I love Dan Whites take on the plot but that is a rare exception Smile


You don't have to explain it to people. People have a generally good base understanding either consciously or subconsciously that it is more and more impossible the more rounds one goes whilst nailing each round. It's instinctive in nature. I did point this out in my original post. I don't understand where the whole notion of somehow needing to explain the math to the audience in order for them to appreciate what's going on. This is nothing that needs to be done, the act itself instinctively feels harder to your audience the more rounds you go. This is an instance where you really just need to go out and do it rather than overthink the preamble.
atomic111
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Quote:
On Nov 7, 2018, gassaox wrote:
Https://youtu.be/hIqfm-F01YQ
If I had it I would use it like this ,good routine


This and the Jimmy Fallon video are pretty good. What was the Florida bit from?

By the way, he said think of a country or a city and the British guy went with a U.S. state.

And shouldn't we all have our own Jimmy Fallon audience?

I like both of these because it seemingly ups the probability factor that we are arguing about without having to guess which hand three or four more times.
kissdadookie
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Quote:
On Nov 7, 2018, atomic111 wrote:
Quote:
On Nov 7, 2018, gassaox wrote:
Https://youtu.be/hIqfm-F01YQ
If I had it I would use it like this ,good routine


This and the Jimmy Fallon video are pretty good. What was the Florida bit from?

By the way, he said think of a country or a city and the British guy went with a U.S. state.

And shouldn't we all have our own Jimmy Fallon audience?

I like both of these because it seemingly ups the probability factor that we are arguing about without having to guess which hand three or four more times.


Look into Colin McLeod's work on which hand (or just watch his performances on YouTube). He uses which hand for something completely different. This is also a subject which Michael Murray discusses in A Piece of My Mind. Peter Turn has some work on this as well as Fraser Parker who most notably uses this concept in Memoria (thought linking I think it's referred to in A Piece of My Mind).
geordiediver
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I would like to second Colin McLeod's take on this.
There is a Penguin lecture by Colin which uses SS or scan 3d to do an amazing prediction.
gassaox
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Does this guy sell his items at Blackpool convention ?
Dannyflek
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Kidsadookie you misunderstand me . Yes nailing 5 in a row is much greater odds but you almost need to tell the layman that as they presume it’s 50/50 . Know my maths lol I am a professional gambler for a living Smile
Magic is my hobby and part time job for pleasure gambling is my bread and butter Smile
atomic111
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Quote:
On Nov 7, 2018, kissdadookie wrote:
Quote:
On Nov 7, 2018, atomic111 wrote:
Quote:
On Nov 7, 2018, gassaox wrote:
Https://youtu.be/hIqfm-F01YQ
If I had it I would use it like this ,good routine


This and the Jimmy Fallon video are pretty good. What was the Florida bit from?

By the way, he said think of a country or a city and the British guy went with a U.S. state.

And shouldn't we all have our own Jimmy Fallon audience?

I like both of these because it seemingly ups the probability factor that we are arguing about without having to guess which hand three or four more times.


Look into Colin McLeod's work on which hand (or just watch his performances on YouTube). He uses which hand for something completely different. This is also a subject which Michael Murray discusses in A Piece of My Mind. Peter Turn has some work on this as well as Fraser Parker who most notably uses this concept in Memoria (thought linking I think it's referred to in A Piece of My Mind).


Thanks for that!
geordiediver
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Quote:
On Nov 7, 2018, Dannyflek wrote:
Kidsadookie you misunderstand me . Yes nailing 5 in a row is much greater odds but you almost need to tell the layman that as they presume it’s 50/50 . Know my maths lol I am a professional gambler for a living Smile
Magic is my hobby and part time job for pleasure gambling is my bread and butter Smile


And he spells maths correctly 😉
Dannyflek
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I did didn’t I lol Smile
kissdadookie
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Quote:
On Nov 7, 2018, Dannyflek wrote:
Kidsadookie you misunderstand me . Yes nailing 5 in a row is much greater odds but you almost need to tell the layman that as they presume it’s 50/50 . Know my maths lol I am a professional gambler for a living Smile
Magic is my hobby and part time job for pleasure gambling is my bread and butter Smile


Like I've pointed out, the more rounds you go the more impressive it is to the audience. It's practically instinctive because they may not know the details of the math but it's instinctive logic. This is why it naturally gets MORE impressive the more times you nail it in a row. The first one obviously it's a lucky guess, second one is possibly a lucky guess, by the third round they typically start wondering how you know (majority of times by the third round I am being asked if I see it in their eyes, etc. without me having to direct them into that frame of thought). Perhaps you are presuming that the audience thinks it's simply always 50/50 because as you have pointed out, gambling is your bread and butter thus you are thinking of odds. I assure you, the lay audience overall are not thinking that.
Dannyflek
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Ok kissadookie I take your word on it and I get the odds completely . All the best Danny Smile
Platt
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Each round is 50/50. But that's not the point. If I flip a coin heads 9 times in a row, the 10th flip is still 50/50 that it will come up heads. But collectively it's an extremely unlikely event. Even three in a row is 1/16 odds which is well beyond chance. 10 in a row is 1 in 2048. 20 in a row is 1 in 2,097,152. It's the same reason it seems within reason to fill out a flawless March Madness bracket (just a bunch of 50/50 chances) but collectively the odds are astronomically high that you'll make a mistake (1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808). The power of exponents. Worth explaining to audience.

1/2
1/4
1/16
1/32
1/64
1/128
1/256
1/512
1/1024
1/2048



Quote:
On Nov 8, 2018, kissdadookie wrote:
Quote:
On Nov 7, 2018, Dannyflek wrote:
Kidsadookie you misunderstand me . Yes nailing 5 in a row is much greater odds but you almost need to tell the layman that as they presume it’s 50/50 . Know my maths lol I am a professional gambler for a living Smile
Magic is my hobby and part time job for pleasure gambling is my bread and butter Smile


Like I've pointed out, the more rounds you go the more impressive it is to the audience. It's practically instinctive because they may not know the details of the math but it's instinctive logic. This is why it naturally gets MORE impressive the more times you nail it in a row. The first one obviously it's a lucky guess, second one is possibly a lucky guess, by the third round they typically start wondering how you know (majority of times by the third round I am being asked if I see it in their eyes, etc. without me having to direct them into that frame of thought). Perhaps you are presuming that the audience thinks it's simply always 50/50 because as you have pointed out, gambling is your bread and butter thus you are thinking of odds. I assure you, the lay audience overall are not thinking that.
Sugar Rush is here! Freakishly visual magic. http://www.plattmagic.com
kissdadookie
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On Nov 9, 2018, Platt wrote:
Each round is 50/50. But that's not the point. If I flip a coin heads 9 times in a row, the 10th flip is still 50/50 that it will come up heads. But collectively it's an extremely unlikely event. Even three in a row is 1/16 odds which is well beyond chance. 10 in a row is 1 in 2048. 20 in a row is 1 in 2,097,152. It's the same reason it seems within reason to fill out a flawless March Madness bracket (just a bunch of 50/50 chances) but collectively the odds are astronomically high that you'll make a mistake (1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808). The power of exponents. Worth explaining to audience.

1/2
1/4
1/16
1/32
1/64
1/128
1/256
1/512
1/1024
1/2048



Quote:
On Nov 8, 2018, kissdadookie wrote:
Quote:
On Nov 7, 2018, Dannyflek wrote:
Kidsadookie you misunderstand me . Yes nailing 5 in a row is much greater odds but you almost need to tell the layman that as they presume it’s 50/50 . Know my maths lol I am a professional gambler for a living Smile
Magic is my hobby and part time job for pleasure gambling is my bread and butter Smile


Like I've pointed out, the more rounds you go the more impressive it is to the audience. It's practically instinctive because they may not know the details of the math but it's instinctive logic. This is why it naturally gets MORE impressive the more times you nail it in a row. The first one obviously it's a lucky guess, second one is possibly a lucky guess, by the third round they typically start wondering how you know (majority of times by the third round I am being asked if I see it in their eyes, etc. without me having to direct them into that frame of thought). Perhaps you are presuming that the audience thinks it's simply always 50/50 because as you have pointed out, gambling is your bread and butter thus you are thinking of odds. I assure you, the lay audience overall are not thinking that.


I get what you're saying and that's one direction that one can go into and make entertaining (it's a presentation which makes something like the Magic Square incredibly entertaining and amazing). My overall point however is that it is in my opinion and having performed a lot of which hand, the audience themselves appear to be more impressed the more times you nail it in a row which would suggest that they instinctively/inherently understand the impossibility of it without it having to be explicitly spelled out to them and if that is the case then the whole notion of "which hand sucks because it's just 50/50" is null because clearly the way they react to which hand effects (at least when I perform it) would suggest that they are not sitting/standing there thinking "pffft, it's just 50/50, not impressive."

Perhaps they do think it's just 50/50 and what actually is happening and getting the reactions is that they are intentionally hoping to outwit you and have you miss and what's impressive is that you are able to overcome their intentional plan to foil you. That's possible as well but however you look at it, in practice, the plot and effect consistently plays well and never have I had to go into explaining to the audience about the mathematical impossibility of it all.
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