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The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » Puzzle me this... » » A strange probabilistic question (1 Likes) Printer Friendly Version

ipe
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If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the probability that you will be correct?

A) 25%
B) 50%
C) 0%
D) 25%


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landmark
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"this question " is ill-defined.
Scott Cram
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The choices defat each other in a non-transitive cycle (think rock/paper/scissors, where none of the choices are always the best), so none of the answers can be chosen at random with the correct probability.
landmark
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Imagine this were not a multiple choice question. Rather than asking the probability of answering the question, ask what is the correct answer.

If it is answerable then there is some probability >0 of being correct if answering at random; if not answerable, then the P=0. There is no way to distinguish between the two cases.
ipe
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Quote:
On Nov 3, 2018, landmark wrote:
"this question " is ill-defined.


What if the options would be:


A) 25%
B) 50%
C) This question is ill-defined
D) 25%
What would a real mindreader do?
ipe
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Quote:
On Nov 3, 2018, Scott Cram wrote:
The choices defat each other in a non-transitive cycle (think rock/paper/scissors, where none of the choices are always the best), so none of the answers can be chosen at random with the correct probability.


If you cannot choose the correct answer, so 0% is the correct answer; but you can choose "0%" from the multiple options available. Smile
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landmark
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Choice C (ill-defined) case is not an answer; it is a statement about the nature of the question.It could just as well be replaced by "I like this question."
ipe
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Landmark, I agree with you, I was just in the role of puzzle-proposer. Smile
What would a real mindreader do?
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