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slyhand
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Can anyone tell me the odds of the hook being pulled with 4 trys? It's not one in 5. The first pull is 20% chance. The next one is 25%. The next 33% and so on. How does one figure what the chance would be overall?
BTW, I know there is no chance of it if done correctly. Just wondering if you were doing it for real.
I am getting so tired of slitting the throats of people who say that I am a violent psychopath.

Alec
brandon90
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Quote:
On Jul 4, 2019, RNK wrote:
I understand what your saying about the cord shredding at the ends. Mind sharing what replacement you found that works better? It would be much appreciated! As far as the opening, I just tell them "ok , now we are going to do something a little crazy, sort if a roulette game but don't worry, the victim is going to be me this time." I ham it up a little bit but not to much. The natural of the effect is so strong, for me, I find a little less comedy and a drop more of serious is working well. Also, I feel this effect is one that doesn't need much of an intro, judging by my performances so far with this.


Here is a link for the thread:
https://www.michaels.com/bead-landing-he......046.html

it works so much better in my opinion.
RNK
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Great, thanks so much Brandon90!
SimonTheSorcerer
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Quote:
On Jul 5, 2019, slyhand wrote:
Can anyone tell me the odds of the hook being pulled with 4 trys? It's not one in 5. The first pull is 20% chance. The next one is 25%. The next 33% and so on. How does one figure what the chance would be overall?
BTW, I know there is no chance of it if done correctly. Just wondering if you were doing it for real.


chances (for one performance alone) are 16,7% that the string with the hook will NOT be pulled...(if you play the game twice in a row the chances will recudes a lot)
videoman
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You know I love ya RNK, but that sure seemed like an awfully fast turnaround from sounding like you were scolding us for wasting our time to even consider the use of an alternate string when the supplied string is "perfect" according to you, to suddenly asking for and happily receiving a link to an alternate string. Makes me think you don't find the original quite so perfect after all.

On a side note, I tried using some monofilament and it worked perfectly. An added bonus is I found it much easier to set up with no unraveling or shedding. I guess a downside is that it likely would not break if needed as the original "probably" would. Not sure that has ever been necessary though.
I still can't vouch for it 100% as the only monofilament I have is pretty thin (what would you expect? I'm a magician not a fisherman Smile ) and I would like to try a thicker line just for the sake of appearance. But I'm hopeful that that is what I will end up using.
RNK
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Besides the shredding ends of the string after usage the string that was supplied is perfect as far as the workings. That's what I was trying to get at. Those who have this know that using another string like fishing line would not work or show up well to the audience. That's all...
thefliss
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Quote:
On Jul 5, 2019, slyhand wrote:
Can anyone tell me the odds of the hook being pulled with 4 trys? It's not one in 5. The first pull is 20% chance. The next one is 25%. The next 33% and so on. How does one figure what the chance would be overall?
BTW, I know there is no chance of it if done correctly. Just wondering if you were doing it for real.


My math might be wrong, but this is how I solve your question:
The total percentage of all outcomes must be 100% or, in decimal notation, 1.
To make sense of this, think of a coin: 50% heads, 50% tails. The sum total of any outcome (either heads or tails when the coin is flipped) is 100%. That is (chance of heads) plus (chance of tails) = 1. So, 50%=0.5, so 0.5+0.5=1

So, in Hook, the chances (if real) would look something like this:

(chance of INCORRECT thread picked) plus (chance of CORRECT thread picked) = 1.

The sum of ALL the possible outcomes should equal 1, just as the sum of all probable outcomes in the coin flip example equal 1.

Rearrange that equation with a little algebra...

(CORRECT thread picked) = 1 - (INCORRECT thread picked).

Ok, so as you said, in the first go, the chance of getting the correct thread is 1/5 or 0.2
Said another way, the chance of picking an incorrect thread the first time is 4/5 or 80%. The chance of pulling the correct thread is, therefore, 1-0.8=0.2 or 20%, but you knew this already...

As the number of choices decreases, the probability the spec picks the CORRECT thread will increase, because there are fewer choices remaining.

Again, as you said: in the second attempt, there is a 1/4 chance of picking correctly (also known as a 3/4 chance of picking incorrectly, or 75%, or 0.75).
In the third, 1/3 correct and 2/3 incorrect. (66% chance of getting the wrong thread)
And the last, 1/2 correct and 1/2 incorrect. (50% chance of either outcome.)

Now, the next part is a little more complicated.

But, first, an example: what's the chance of getting two heads in a row from coin flips (assuming an ideal coin with a 50/50 chance)?
It's the chance of heads AND the chance of heads again. Mathematically solved by multiplying the chance of both desired outcomes= 50% x 50% (or 1/2 x 1/2 or 0.5x0.5) = 25%.
To extend the example, the chances of getting three heads in a row is 0.5x0.5x0.5=0.125 or 12.5%.
(Aside: the chance of A LEAST ONE TAILS in THREE FLIPS is 1-CHANCE OF HEADS THREE TIMES IN A ROW = 87.5%)

So the chance of NOT picking it correctly EVERY time is the product of all of the chances of not picking it correctly each time.
Here, 80% then 75% then 66.7%, then 50%. This is equal to 0.8 x 0.75 x 0.667 x 0.5 = 0.2 ... or 20%.

The chance of picking correctly AT LEAST ONCE, is, refer back to beginning of this post, 1 - picking the incorrect thread EVERY TIME.

1 - (not getting it the first time x not the second time x not the third x not the fourth)

1- (0.8 x 0.75 x 0.667 x 0.5)= 0.8

So, there's an 80% chance of picking the correct thread at least once by the end of the choices. Which, actually, isn't all that impressive a number, maybe, to a spectator, so maybe you shouldn't mention that? Smile
Instead, maybe just lie and say the chances are more than 90%, because what spectator is going to do that kind of math on the fly? Smile
SimonTheSorcerer
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Actually it is a 83,3% chance to pull the string with the hook. Regarding the danger behind it I guess it is pretty impressive.
thefliss
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Quote:
On Jul 7, 2019, SimonTheSorcerer wrote:
Actually it is a 83,3% chance to pull the string with the hook. Regarding the danger behind it I guess it is pretty impressive.


I showed my work... care to explain where I went wrong?
Thanks!
Harry Patter
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I think there being any chance makes it impressive.
SimonTheSorcerer
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Quote:
On Jul 7, 2019, thefliss wrote:
Quote:
On Jul 7, 2019, SimonTheSorcerer wrote:
Actually it is a 83,3% chance to pull the string with the hook. Regarding the danger behind it I guess it is pretty impressive.


I showed my work... care to explain where I went wrong?
Thanks!


Your work is correct! You just rounded the fractions up too much Smile
thefliss
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I don’t own Hook, but was wondering if this presentation could work...
Why not do it as a Monte Hall Problem?
It would lack the slow burn build up of doing it one thread at a time, though...
Ask the spec to pick one thread, then yourself pull 3 of the remaining threads to show they’re “wrong,” then ask the spec if they want to switch their choice to the other remaining thread or keep their initial selection. (Mathematically, it makes sense to switch rather than keeping the initial choice.)
And, boom! They’re wrong. But still exciting! Just faster.
Can this work? (And could you use different color threads?)
slyhand
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Thank you both for answering my question.
Your presentation might work if one could talk with a hook in their mouth. Smile
I am getting so tired of slitting the throats of people who say that I am a violent psychopath.

Alec
wizard75d
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I went for a cotton thread in the end. 3 Euro in a local hardware store. Its softer without any bits coming off. Looks very like the thread Xavior uses. I feel it is a good replacement for the thread supplied.
videoman
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Quote:
On Jul 5, 2019, RNK wrote:
Those who have this know that using another string like fishing line would not work or show up well to the audience. That's all...


Just a quick update...after some testing I have found that the fishing line does work perfectly fine, doesn't shed or unravel, is waterproof (saliva proof?), shows up well when performing close up, is very logical, and is way, way easier to set up.
I'm puzzled as to why one would assume that it would not work without having first tried it?

I realize the type of string is a personal preference and if you are performing this on a stage you would probably want to use a very visible type of string, but personally I'm not doing this on a stage. And yes, I do have this prop. Perhaps I didn't make that clear earlier.

But here's my question...I'm thinking of flagging the ends of each string with a color or number. For one thing I think this may give me more presentational options such as they could choose a favorite color or number; or explain that I have a lucky number; or create a presentation along the lines of the Monte Hall idea previously posted, etc. Lots of possibilities.
As an additional bonus, it might also add some logic as to why I display the strings the way I do in the beginning.

Anyway, just curious if anyone has done this or explored this option?
RNK
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Interesting, I never thought to use fishing line (even in close up situation) because it still would not look as good as the string and I just wouldn't trust the thin nature of the string to be 100% fail proof. But as always I could be wrong! Putting color tabs would definitely help but I think even at close up the clear nature of fishing line would not be as impressive as string. But that's just me.
videoman
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Yeah, it's a personal preference and I'm not 100% sold on the fishing line either.
But this isn't a case of trying to fix something that isn't broken.

I just like to experiment and ponder various options and once in a while you stumble onto something cool.
Yannou
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Question: what would happen if you get a spectator who thinks it's funny to grab all threads at once and pull them?
drjohn
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Threads in mouth at start?.... like John Allen’s trick with his mouth shut
Then the removal of the last thread shows the hook for the first time..... you’ve been silent upto this point
But you say ‘damn, bloody glad you chose those four... this would have hurt a lot itherwise’

Just a thought!
May your darkness come quickly
gibby357
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Quote:
On Jul 10, 2019, Yannou wrote:
Question: what would happen if you get a spectator who thinks it's funny to grab all threads at once and pull them?



I think this person might be asking if all 5 strings were pulled! What would happen then? Yikes!



Leo
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