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slyhand Inner circle Good ole Virginia 1890 Posts 
Can anyone tell me the odds of the hook being pulled with 4 trys? It's not one in 5. The first pull is 20% chance. The next one is 25%. The next 33% and so on. How does one figure what the chance would be overall?
BTW, I know there is no chance of it if done correctly. Just wondering if you were doing it for real.
I am getting so tired of slitting the throats of people who say that I am a violent psychopath.
Alec 

brandon90 Special user Atlanta 556 Posts 
Quote:
On Jul 4, 2019, RNK wrote: Here is a link for the thread: https://www.michaels.com/beadlandinghe......046.html it works so much better in my opinion. 

RNK Inner circle 4803 Posts 
Great, thanks so much Brandon90!


SimonTheSorcerer Loyal user 209 Posts 
Quote:
On Jul 5, 2019, slyhand wrote: chances (for one performance alone) are 16,7% that the string with the hook will NOT be pulled...(if you play the game twice in a row the chances will recudes a lot) 

videoman Inner circle 4607 Posts 
You know I love ya RNK, but that sure seemed like an awfully fast turnaround from sounding like you were scolding us for wasting our time to even consider the use of an alternate string when the supplied string is "perfect" according to you, to suddenly asking for and happily receiving a link to an alternate string. Makes me think you don't find the original quite so perfect after all.
On a side note, I tried using some monofilament and it worked perfectly. An added bonus is I found it much easier to set up with no unraveling or shedding. I guess a downside is that it likely would not break if needed as the original "probably" would. Not sure that has ever been necessary though. I still can't vouch for it 100% as the only monofilament I have is pretty thin (what would you expect? I'm a magician not a fisherman ) and I would like to try a thicker line just for the sake of appearance. But I'm hopeful that that is what I will end up using. 

RNK Inner circle 4803 Posts 
Besides the shredding ends of the string after usage the string that was supplied is perfect as far as the workings. That's what I was trying to get at. Those who have this know that using another string like fishing line would not work or show up well to the audience. That's all...


thefliss New user 99 Posts 
Quote:
On Jul 5, 2019, slyhand wrote: My math might be wrong, but this is how I solve your question: The total percentage of all outcomes must be 100% or, in decimal notation, 1. To make sense of this, think of a coin: 50% heads, 50% tails. The sum total of any outcome (either heads or tails when the coin is flipped) is 100%. That is (chance of heads) plus (chance of tails) = 1. So, 50%=0.5, so 0.5+0.5=1 So, in Hook, the chances (if real) would look something like this: (chance of INCORRECT thread picked) plus (chance of CORRECT thread picked) = 1. The sum of ALL the possible outcomes should equal 1, just as the sum of all probable outcomes in the coin flip example equal 1. Rearrange that equation with a little algebra... (CORRECT thread picked) = 1  (INCORRECT thread picked). Ok, so as you said, in the first go, the chance of getting the correct thread is 1/5 or 0.2 Said another way, the chance of picking an incorrect thread the first time is 4/5 or 80%. The chance of pulling the correct thread is, therefore, 10.8=0.2 or 20%, but you knew this already... As the number of choices decreases, the probability the spec picks the CORRECT thread will increase, because there are fewer choices remaining. Again, as you said: in the second attempt, there is a 1/4 chance of picking correctly (also known as a 3/4 chance of picking incorrectly, or 75%, or 0.75). In the third, 1/3 correct and 2/3 incorrect. (66% chance of getting the wrong thread) And the last, 1/2 correct and 1/2 incorrect. (50% chance of either outcome.) Now, the next part is a little more complicated. But, first, an example: what's the chance of getting two heads in a row from coin flips (assuming an ideal coin with a 50/50 chance)? It's the chance of heads AND the chance of heads again. Mathematically solved by multiplying the chance of both desired outcomes= 50% x 50% (or 1/2 x 1/2 or 0.5x0.5) = 25%. To extend the example, the chances of getting three heads in a row is 0.5x0.5x0.5=0.125 or 12.5%. (Aside: the chance of A LEAST ONE TAILS in THREE FLIPS is 1CHANCE OF HEADS THREE TIMES IN A ROW = 87.5%) So the chance of NOT picking it correctly EVERY time is the product of all of the chances of not picking it correctly each time. Here, 80% then 75% then 66.7%, then 50%. This is equal to 0.8 x 0.75 x 0.667 x 0.5 = 0.2 ... or 20%. The chance of picking correctly AT LEAST ONCE, is, refer back to beginning of this post, 1  picking the incorrect thread EVERY TIME. 1  (not getting it the first time x not the second time x not the third x not the fourth) 1 (0.8 x 0.75 x 0.667 x 0.5)= 0.8 So, there's an 80% chance of picking the correct thread at least once by the end of the choices. Which, actually, isn't all that impressive a number, maybe, to a spectator, so maybe you shouldn't mention that? Instead, maybe just lie and say the chances are more than 90%, because what spectator is going to do that kind of math on the fly? 

SimonTheSorcerer Loyal user 209 Posts 
Actually it is a 83,3% chance to pull the string with the hook. Regarding the danger behind it I guess it is pretty impressive.


thefliss New user 99 Posts 
Quote:
On Jul 7, 2019, SimonTheSorcerer wrote: I showed my work... care to explain where I went wrong? Thanks! 

Harry Patter Loyal user 251 Posts 
I think there being any chance makes it impressive.


SimonTheSorcerer Loyal user 209 Posts 
Quote:
On Jul 7, 2019, thefliss wrote: Your work is correct! You just rounded the fractions up too much 

thefliss New user 99 Posts 
I don’t own Hook, but was wondering if this presentation could work...
Why not do it as a Monte Hall Problem? It would lack the slow burn build up of doing it one thread at a time, though... Ask the spec to pick one thread, then yourself pull 3 of the remaining threads to show they’re “wrong,” then ask the spec if they want to switch their choice to the other remaining thread or keep their initial selection. (Mathematically, it makes sense to switch rather than keeping the initial choice.) And, boom! They’re wrong. But still exciting! Just faster. Can this work? (And could you use different color threads?) 

slyhand Inner circle Good ole Virginia 1890 Posts 
Thank you both for answering my question.
Your presentation might work if one could talk with a hook in their mouth.
I am getting so tired of slitting the throats of people who say that I am a violent psychopath.
Alec 

wizard75d New user 74 Posts 
I went for a cotton thread in the end. 3 Euro in a local hardware store. Its softer without any bits coming off. Looks very like the thread Xavior uses. I feel it is a good replacement for the thread supplied.


videoman Inner circle 4607 Posts 
Quote:
On Jul 5, 2019, RNK wrote: Just a quick update...after some testing I have found that the fishing line does work perfectly fine, doesn't shed or unravel, is waterproof (saliva proof?), shows up well when performing close up, is very logical, and is way, way easier to set up. I'm puzzled as to why one would assume that it would not work without having first tried it? I realize the type of string is a personal preference and if you are performing this on a stage you would probably want to use a very visible type of string, but personally I'm not doing this on a stage. And yes, I do have this prop. Perhaps I didn't make that clear earlier. But here's my question...I'm thinking of flagging the ends of each string with a color or number. For one thing I think this may give me more presentational options such as they could choose a favorite color or number; or explain that I have a lucky number; or create a presentation along the lines of the Monte Hall idea previously posted, etc. Lots of possibilities. As an additional bonus, it might also add some logic as to why I display the strings the way I do in the beginning. Anyway, just curious if anyone has done this or explored this option? 

RNK Inner circle 4803 Posts 
Interesting, I never thought to use fishing line (even in close up situation) because it still would not look as good as the string and I just wouldn't trust the thin nature of the string to be 100% fail proof. But as always I could be wrong! Putting color tabs would definitely help but I think even at close up the clear nature of fishing line would not be as impressive as string. But that's just me.


videoman Inner circle 4607 Posts 
Yeah, it's a personal preference and I'm not 100% sold on the fishing line either.
But this isn't a case of trying to fix something that isn't broken. I just like to experiment and ponder various options and once in a while you stumble onto something cool. 

Yannou Veteran user 377 Posts 
Question: what would happen if you get a spectator who thinks it's funny to grab all threads at once and pull them?


drjohn Loyal user 207 Posts 
Threads in mouth at start?.... like John Allen’s trick with his mouth shut
Then the removal of the last thread shows the hook for the first time..... you’ve been silent upto this point But you say ‘damn, bloody glad you chose those four... this would have hurt a lot itherwise’ Just a thought!
May your darkness come quickly


gibby357 Veteran user The Woodlands, TX 345 Posts 
Quote:
On Jul 10, 2019, Yannou wrote: I think this person might be asking if all 5 strings were pulled! What would happen then? Yikes! Leo 

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