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ringmaster Inner circle Memphis, Down in Dixie 1974 Posts |
Last nights P&T Featured a very dramatic card trick. Pen Gillett used some very impressive math to show the supposed impossibility, or not of the result. It was a masterful piece of showmanship, the virtual audience seemed very impressed. Unfortunately Penn, who usually denounces this type of thing, used some made use of fake science to sell, very effectively this magic feat as "not magic".
The first tip of came when Teller and the (instant?) stuge kept getting one card each of a pair, a result that normally occurs~ 50% of the time. This was brilliant showmanship, but bad science. Shame!
One of the last living 10-in-one performers. I wanted to be in show business the worst way, and that was it.
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rowdymagi5 Inner circle Virginia 3615 Posts |
She was not a stooge. Basic mentalist trick dressed up a bit.
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LobowolfXXX Inner circle La Famiglia 1196 Posts |
How many pairs? A coin flip is 50-50, but it doesn't have to happen too many times in a row before the odds get quite long.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley. "...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us." |
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S2000magician Inner circle Yorba Linda, CA 3465 Posts |
Quote:
On Apr 20, 2021, LobowolfXXX wrote: A fair coin flip, that is. Persi Diaconis had (still has?) a machine that would flip a quarter, and it would always land heads. Apparently it had a piece of tape on it. Apparently that piece of tape was very important. He was interviewed on NPR in the early 2000s (2002 – 2004), and the interviewer asked about the piece of tape. "Don't touch that!" "What does it do?" "I don't know, but it doesn't work without it." |
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ringmaster Inner circle Memphis, Down in Dixie 1974 Posts |
I'm not complaining about the card matching stunt, I don't know how it was done, I'm not a card man*. But really for Gillette, of all people, to go that far in off base, falsely claiming scientific proof of the premise. He should denounce him self on P&T,BS.
* I'm a dice man.
One of the last living 10-in-one performers. I wanted to be in show business the worst way, and that was it.
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
Well, that seems to me to be how our magic works:
First, assert some nonsense and then prove it true. To create the nonsense take some real or plausible phenomena and then exaggerate its effect, so much so that the audience know the claim is false. One cannot go too far with the exaggeration as it is that which tells them it is false, a lie/art. It is important they know the assertion is false. Then proceed to prove the lie true with an experiment. Bingo!
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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Cliffg37 Inner circle Long Beach, CA 2491 Posts |
Uh guys.... How many of us tell whoppers when on stage. The great Aldo Colombini used to say, "You know we are all going to hell for lying... The box is empty, there is nothing in my sleeve, etc." As a man of science myself, I realized early that Penn was spouting pseudo science. That did not take away from the effect.
Magic is like Science,
Both are fun if you do it right! |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21219 Posts |
I agree. I simply don't get the outrage.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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LobowolfXXX Inner circle La Famiglia 1196 Posts |
Quote:
On Apr 22, 2021, ringmaster wrote: The point is, you say they "kept" doing it. If it's a random 2-possibility event, it's 50-50 ONCE. If it happens 10 times in a row, it's more than 1,000-1 against.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley. "...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us." |
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LobowolfXXX Inner circle La Famiglia 1196 Posts |
Quote:
On Apr 20, 2021, S2000magician wrote: Granted. And: haha!
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley. "...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us." |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21219 Posts |
Quote:
On Apr 22, 2021, ringmaster wrote: By the way unless you are outraged at a large company from Cincinnati it is Jillette.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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ringmaster Inner circle Memphis, Down in Dixie 1974 Posts |
Quote:
On Apr 25, 2021, Dannydoyle wrote: Thank you Danny.
One of the last living 10-in-one performers. I wanted to be in show business the worst way, and that was it.
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mantel Special user 922 Posts |
Quote:
On Apr 20, 2021, S2000magician wrote: You have a great memory... The Not So Random Coin Toss (February 24, 2004) https://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor......=1697475 |
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Pop Haydn Inner circle Los Angeles 3691 Posts |
Quote:
On Apr 25, 2021, LobowolfXXX wrote: It is actually 50/50 each time. The coin has no memory of being flipped before. |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21219 Posts |
Isn't each individual flip of two choices 50/50, but the totality of it happening 10 times in a row is the 1,000-1 against?
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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Pop Haydn Inner circle Los Angeles 3691 Posts |
Each throw of the ten is a fifty/fifty chance. The chance of hitting heads the next time isn't greater than fifty/fifty.
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
The accumulative odds are 1023 to 1.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
Probability is the measure of the possibility that a given event will occur. The cumulative probability is the measure of the chance that two or more events will happen.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21219 Posts |
Quote:
On May 1, 2021, Pop Haydn wrote: Exactly. Each individual throw, all things being neutral, is 50/50. This exact concept is why they put that little history board on most roulette wheels. I call it the "illusion of probability ". It could have come up black 900 times in a row, on a wheel with no bias or cheating. The odds are still exactly the same each individual spin that the black will come up again. Yet marks absolutely think it is common sense that red is "due". I mean if you flip a coin 100 times an average mark thinks that 50 will be heads and 50 tails. Each individual throw is a 50/50 odds of either outcome. But the totality of all the other outcomes combined far outweighs the 50 heads 50 tails final result. This is why casinos make so much money.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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Pop Haydn Inner circle Los Angeles 3691 Posts |
Quote:
On May 1, 2021, Dannydoyle wrote: Exactly! The odds only become fifty/fifty as an average of millions of throws. 800 Heads in a row will occur at some point in those millions of throws, perfectly in keeping with the odds. The odds aren't predictive of anything but the individual throw. |
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