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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
The casinos win because they do not offer even money on coin tosses.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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LobowolfXXX Inner circle La Famiglia 1196 Posts |
Quote:
On Apr 30, 2021, Pop Haydn wrote: The fact that a single flip coming up heads is 50-50 doesn't change the fact that it's over 1000-1 against it happening 10 times in a row.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley. "...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us." |
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LobowolfXXX Inner circle La Famiglia 1196 Posts |
Quote:
On May 1, 2021, Pop Haydn wrote: Nobody is asserting that the probability on the 10th flip is anything other than 50-50. It's the a priori probability of 10 consecutive flips being heads that's far from 50-50.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley. "...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us." |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21219 Posts |
Oh fantastic now I have to look up the word "priori". Thanks Lobo. Stop stealing Bill's gimick.
OK got it and yep we agree! Downside I learned a new word I will try like crazy to shoehorn into a conversation in Branson Missouri. THAT is not going to be easy! Anyone want to guess the odds of THAT happening? I will give you a hint. It is far less than 50/50.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
In the book Our Magic, there is a chapter called SURPRISE AND REPETITION which deals with the notion of the cumulative effect produced by repetition.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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S2000magician Inner circle Yorba Linda, CA 3465 Posts |
Quote:
On May 1, 2021, Dannydoyle wrote: It's not priori; it's a priori: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/a%20priori |
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slowkneenuh Regular user After 5,278+ posts, only credited with 133 Posts |
Unfortunately time is not on our side to consider a posteriori for any great length.
John
"A poor workman always blames his tools" |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21219 Posts |
Quote:
On May 1, 2021, S2000magician wrote: Yes I found that out when looking it up. Which in large part contributed to my need to look it up. That was how little I knew of the concept! I was fairly certain he hadn't just mentioned skin care products randomly, which is for some reason what Priori seems to be.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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S2000magician Inner circle Yorba Linda, CA 3465 Posts |
Quote:
On May 1, 2021, Dannydoyle wrote: Product names often make no sense whatsoever. |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21219 Posts |
As far as I can tell, with as much research as I am willing to put into it, this might just be one of those cases.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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LobowolfXXX Inner circle La Famiglia 1196 Posts |
Quote:
On May 1, 2021, Dannydoyle wrote: Anyone who's been to law school can toss out fancy Latin phrases to refer to really simple concepts.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley. "...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us." |
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S2000magician Inner circle Yorba Linda, CA 3465 Posts |
Quote:
On May 2, 2021, LobowolfXXX wrote: And, ceteris paribus, it makes them sound really, really smart. |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
The Monte Carlo Fallacy
On the 18th August 1918, the most famous occurrence of Gambler's Fallacy took place in a game of roulette at the famed Monte Carlo Casino. With the remarkable probability of around 1 in 66.6 million, the roulette ball ended up falling on black for a record 26 times in a row, which was an unprecedented and largely inexplicable event in the world of gambling to that date. The effect of this particular example was so overwhelming that it, later on, became the main association to the actual fallacy phenomenon. Somewhere around the 15th time the ball hit black, the players began to panic. Bets were being made on red as gamblers ended up losing millions of francs claiming and firmly believing that the streak was due to end, while their minds were falsely led by the law of large numbers and maturity of odds. Fallacy from the Latin Fallacia essentially means trick. https://www.bettingwebsites.org.uk/artic......fallacy/ What is not mentioned in this story, as a rule, is that Black or Red on a Roulette table is not a 50/50 chance because of the Green Zero. They do not explain that in an accumulator bet the edge is compounded.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21219 Posts |
Quote:
On May 2, 2021, S2000magician wrote: Cazl frazen razl frazen. Now I have to look up THAT! You are doing it on purpose. I THOUGHT because of context I might have known this, but indeed it turns out not. (By the way anyone who HASN'T gone to law school, but sat home and watched The Flintstones can come up with phrases to express frustration!)
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21219 Posts |
The House has always had an advantage in roulette.
About 2.70% in Europe. The American double zero wheel almost double that. Simple lesson is find a single zero wheel you will lose slower. Einstein himself had a view of how difficult it might be to win the game legitimately. I think it is attributed to him saying the only way to win was to steal money when the croupier isn't looking. Mainly because each individual spin has no memory. No system can overcome this fact.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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Tom Cutts Staff Northern CA 5925 Posts |
Quote:
each individual spin has no memory. No system can overcome this fact. While a couple have said this, it is not always true. Occasionally one may encounter a wheel with a memory... or more accurately, a bias. I have seen both extremes in the wild. |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21219 Posts |
Do we really have to keep saying "all things being neutral" and things like that? It is just so cumbersome.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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Jonathan Townsend Eternal Order Ossining, NY 27297 Posts |
It's like saying "presuming it was a regular deck of cards" about a card trick.
...to all the coins I've dropped here
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
Casinos have min/max limits to stop players endlessly doubling up and so the casinos do not think it is a fallacy, otherwise, they would let players double up endlessly, wouldn’t they?
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21219 Posts |
99.9999% OF the world would run out of funds prior to that paying off.
I assume you speak of the "Martingale" system? And they wouldn't double up endlessly. They would make a huge bet to end up about even. The system is a disaster. Yes table limits help to stop any random short term fluctuations in chance.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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