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The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » Latest and Greatest? » » HEADS & TAILS PREDICTION by Mickael Chatelain (Organic diabolical method that fools everyone!) (34 Likes) Printer Friendly Version

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dooblehorn
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If it's all complete DIY, I think the price should be adjusted accordingly, just my opinion
acesover
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Quote:
On Mar 17, 2022, Marvello wrote:
This does not strike me as routine, nor is it particularly remarkable. If I had magical powers, I don't think I'd go around demonstrating them by predicting 50/50 coin tosses by writing on suspicious slips of paper and then sliding them around a table for no apparent reason. This is a bar bet, and even as such, it's not very good.



I really feel you are not thinking this through. You say 50/50/ Not even close. Think about this. You produce 3 slips of paper with predictions on them. They are numbered and cannot be changed. The spectator then flips a coin and decides what number to put on the coin. Then does it 2 more times with the same decision of choosing a numbered paper. The last one is not a choice but in of it of itself is a prediction before the trick even started. So 50/50 is not even close as to the odds involved in this effect. Also please consider that just trying to predict the 3 coins being predicted. By that I mean: is it 2 heads and and one tail, or 2 tails and one head, or 3 heads, or 3 tails? So again not even close to 50/50. Further more even if you predict the correct amount of heads or tails, remember you must have the spectator pick the correct number. So again the odds are much higher than 50/50. Just my thoughts on this.
If I were to agree with you. Then we would both be wrong. As of Apr 5, 2015 10:26 pm I have 880 posts. Used to have over 1,000
leipzisch
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Presumably the odds of correctly predicting three heads or tails flips in a row is 1 in 8, as has been mentioned previously.
Roberto W
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Quote:
On Mar 20, 2022, acesover wrote:
Quote:
On Mar 17, 2022, Marvello wrote:
This does not strike me as routine, nor is it particularly remarkable. If I had magical powers, I don't think I'd go around demonstrating them by predicting 50/50 coin tosses by writing on suspicious slips of paper and then sliding them around a table for no apparent reason. This is a bar bet, and even as such, it's not very good.



I really feel you are not thinking this through. You say 50/50/ Not even close. Think about this. You produce 3 slips of paper with predictions on them. They are numbered and cannot be changed. The spectator then flips a coin and decides what number to put on the coin. Then does it 2 more times with the same decision of choosing a numbered paper. The last one is not a choice but in of it of itself is a prediction before the trick even started. So 50/50 is not even close as to the odds involved in this effect. Also please consider that just trying to predict the 3 coins being predicted. By that I mean: is it 2 heads and and one tail, or 2 tails and one head, or 3 heads, or 3 tails? So again not even close to 50/50. Further more even if you predict the correct amount of heads or tails, remember you must have the spectator pick the correct number. So again the odds are much higher than 50/50. Just my thoughts on this.


Technically that is all true, but unless you summarise all this in performance I feel spectators when talking and thinking about it will describe it as a 50/50 prediction effect.
leipzisch
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This effect lives and dies by the strength of the presentation.

If spectators leave describing it as 50/50, the performer needs to seriously consider whether collecting stamps might be a better hobby.
Roberto W
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I just honestly think when the spectator describes to people what happened, they will say magician had 3 bits of paper, I placed coins on a table and chose if I wanted the coins to be heads or tails and above each coin the prediction matched heads/tails to each coin. So yes, if there are more layers to the outcomes it would need to be emphasized so people don’t just think it was 50/50 for each coin.
leipzisch
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..and that's what performing magic is all about!
Gaz Lawrence
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Exactly getting 3 in succession correct on 50/50’s is a 7/1 odds but you can milk it for even more by telling them they could have and can change their minds etc etc Gaz.😊
leipzisch
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Hell you could use just one slip, make a huge deal out of the volunteer deciding to place the coin heads up or tails up, then reveal that you predicted their decision from the start.

Actually, I like that routine. Might just buy this!
leipzisch
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...but first I'll wait for early adopter reviews 😉
acesover
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Quote:
On Mar 21, 2022, Roberto W wrote:
Quote:
On Mar 20, 2022, acesover wrote:
Quote:
On Mar 17, 2022, Marvello wrote:
This does not strike me as routine, nor is it particularly remarkable. If I had magical powers, I don't think I'd go around demonstrating them by predicting 50/50 coin tosses by writing on suspicious slips of paper and then sliding them around a table for no apparent reason. This is a bar bet, and even as such, it's not very good.



I really feel you are not thinking this through. You say 50/50/ Not even close. Think about this. You produce 3 slips of paper with predictions on them. They are numbered and cannot be changed. The spectator then flips a coin and decides what number to put on the coin. Then does it 2 more times with the same decision of choosing a numbered paper. The last one is not a choice but in of it of itself is a prediction before the trick even started. So 50/50 is not even close as to the odds involved in this effect. Also please consider that just trying to predict the 3 coins being predicted. By that I mean: is it 2 heads and and one tail, or 2 tails and one head, or 3 heads, or 3 tails? So again not even close to 50/50. Further more even if you predict the correct amount of heads or tails, remember you must have the spectator pick the correct number. So again the odds are much higher than 50/50. Just my thoughts on this.


Technically that is all true, but unless you summarise all this in performance I feel spectators when talking and thinking about it will describe it as a 50/50 prediction effect.


I don't necessarily disagree with your thought on what the spectator thinks, however I was just pointing out that it is not even close to a 50/50 chance as you mentioned in the previous post. No harm no foul. just magicians helping magicians.
If I were to agree with you. Then we would both be wrong. As of Apr 5, 2015 10:26 pm I have 880 posts. Used to have over 1,000
leipzisch
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Quote:
On Mar 18, 2022, Alex DLF wrote:
Gimmicks are coming flat, you need to cut the paper provided and to integrate all the stuff they give you, not complicated but it will require some time and patience.

Interesting concept, you can use the gimmick for various tricks, definately not examinable, be careful with your credit cards if put in the wallet Smile



Alex, can you share a bit more about the gimmicks? Well made, durable? Any angle issues? Easy to make?
yourimagic
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I received mine. It is really cool.
But I believe the effect will be much stronger with 6 coins and 6 papers instead of 3, because the probability of guessing right is 1/64 with 6 coins vs 1/8 with 3 coins.
It will require twice more DIY work, but it's worth it!
leipzisch
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Can you share a bit more about the gimmicks? Well made, durable? Any angle issues? Easy to make? Thanks 😃
yourimagic
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The gimmicks will be made by you, so they will be as well made as you'll make them, but they are quite easy to make with what is provided.
How long will they last ?
Well it depends how you store them between performances, but if you store them properly, then they will last a long time. And anyway when they wear out, you can reuse the material provided to build new gimmicks.
As for the angles, they are quite good provided you write your predictions in a certain way, but that is not explained in the video. If properly written, you'll be able to perform surrounded.
leipzisch
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Thanks yourinmagic, really helpful.

Are you provided with paper, thin card, tyvek, other?

Do you think spectators would notice the difference in thickness when the gimmick is open vs when it's closed?

I'm surprised he doesn't teach how to write the predictions in an angle proof way. Surely that's crucial to the effectiveness of the gimmick!
EZrhythm
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Quote:
On Mar 22, 2022, yourimagic wrote:
I received mine. It is really cool.
But I believe the effect will be much stronger with 6 coins and 6 papers instead of 3, because the probability of guessing right is 1/64 with 6 coins vs 1/8 with 3 coins.
It will require twice more DIY work, but it's worth it!


Thank You! This is what I suspected and this is what I planned to do.
Smile
How many magicians does it take to change a lightbulb? Regardless, for magicians darkness is a time for d'lite.
Roberto W
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Instead of coins it may be interesting to use the premise but with yes and no answers/writing. Each bit of the paper is a question with 1, 2, 3 and you have predicted the answer they give. This can be tailored accordingly with questions to suit, funny, serious, emotional etc
Gazoo
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Received! Looks like a great trick that will be used. As an amateur I usually perform for friends and family at dinner or at bars.
Asking for a few tips here.

1. Because some people are touchy feely. Any tips on switching them out for examinable replicas?

2. The creator of the trick never addresses a hint as what to do when the trick is done. Do we just pocket the pieces? Might look suspicious.

3. I have a concern about the depth perception of the slips. Any possibility that the gimmicks can be "spotted"?


Maybe because I'm an old guy, but making the gimmicks is going to take more than 20 to 30 minutes? The video itself is 30 minutes. Then the arts and crafts itself for 6 props will take even more time. Then there is the glue drying time of the recommended of 30 to 35 minutes. Think two hours with a nice relaxing drink next to you.
tmoca
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I made one up...I am not sold on the look of the pieces. The paper is somewhat thin and a bit translucent, so once you glue it all together the gimmicks can sort of be seen "through" the paper or maybe even the impression of the gimmicks used to assemble it can be seen. Perhaps the writing could camouflage it bit.

I may try it with a different stock and I may try to make them a bit bigger as well. However, with that said, I am not so sure I would perform this..... Perhaps in virtual setting or at a slightly dim lit bar it may work better. Not sure I would be confident enough to use them as is in a well lit environment. Perhaps the different stock will change my mind.
The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » Latest and Greatest? » » HEADS & TAILS PREDICTION by Mickael Chatelain (Organic diabolical method that fools everyone!) (34 Likes)
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