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The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » Latest and Greatest? » » HEADS & TAILS PREDICTION by Mickael Chatelain (Organic diabolical method that fools everyone!) (34 Likes) Printer Friendly Version

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Marvello
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This does not strike me as routine, nor is it particularly remarkable. If I had magical powers, I don't think I'd go around demonstrating them by predicting 50/50 coin tosses by writing on suspicious slips of paper and then sliding them around a table for no apparent reason. This is a bar bet, and even as such, it's not very good.
Never criticize someone else until you have walked a mile in their shoes. Then, when you do criticize them, you will be a mile away from them and you will have their shoes.
David Klass
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Quote:
On Mar 17, 2022, Marvello wrote:
This does not strike me as routine, nor is it particularly remarkable. If I had magical powers, I don't think I'd go around demonstrating them by predicting 50/50 coin tosses by writing on suspicious slips of paper and then sliding them around a table for no apparent reason. This is a bar bet, and even as such, it's not very good.


No me neither. I would put my powers to a much better use.
Like making a playing card keep rising to the top of a deck.
leipzisch
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Well I guessthat's magic, as with life. Different strokes for different folks.
Nathan Alexander
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Eh, I dunno. I'm going through the series "Castle" with my wife. We love it. My in-laws tried and didn't like it.

The difference in opinions is a function of the viewer, not the show, because it's obviously well produced with good ratings.

If this trick isn't full crap and has any merit at all, then same here.

It's possible it sincerely holds potential to those who it resonates with while also seeming to be junk to others. It's not mutually exclusive.

Personally, I think it could be fun to do and have nice reactions.

Those tricks have their place (and I do believe it can be played up pretty nicely, especially in a bigger theme/routine of wonder and chance and "what if" stuff, "what if it were possible to know, for me to *truly* know what you might decide, all before you even do, including *even when you change your mind*" as you lean across the table conspiratorially with a small smile, "but nah," you say pretend-smugly as you lean back while showing the reveal, "it's just a coincidence...the world is a funny place, huh?" cue the open mouth and "what the h*ll??" comments).

My whole point is that sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. But sometimes it's not.

I wasn't sure if this had any merit at first, but then with a little time (and thoughts from others) it reminded me of the kind of presentations I like to do.

You may hate it.

But I also wouldn't waste time trying to convince my in-laws they should like Castle.

SO...We can over debate things, you know, like the little details that don't matter if the trick is already thought out. True, that's oftentimes the crux of the matter, but assuming this isn't hastily brought out and untested, it doesn't matter about the thickness, pen strokes, placement, angles, etc.

But we love our debates. Especially here.

Mine's on preorder, so naturally, please pay attention to the "for sale" section as my latest whims mean I need to unload. Smile
Fromentum
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Quote:
On Mar 16, 2022, Platt wrote:
Even though the coins are being tossed randomly at once and then put in front of the prediction, it's still a 50/50 proposition happening 3 times. Or 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8. Max Maven kills with his 1/4 probability B'wave. No reason 1/8 shouldn't do the same as it's well beyond random chance. I've always preferred things like 8 card brainwave to 1/52 full deck card tricks. Somehow, even though the probability is lower, it counter-intuitively can feel more impossible. I'd probably pick the predictions up and pocket them as you reveal each one.




Well I don't agree on the math here. If we look at the coin toss there are HHH TTT HTT HHT. The probability for HHT and TTH outcome should be higher.



But there is the second aspect that the performer must write the exact combination on the slips of paper. (Because if the spectator throws HHT but the performer wrote HTT ist impossible to match.)
So this is the first "prediction that needs to match.



Now the spectator puts the slips at the right position. With the HHH and TTT it would be impossible to fail. With the HTT and TTH there are just two possibilities:

If we have HHT it does not matter which H on the slip gets matched with which H on the coin if there are two. So the probability fot the first would be 66% the following are 50%. But only if the first slip is a H. If the first slip is the T the probability for a match would be 33%. But if the T got matched perfectly in the first round the other matching is always 100% because there are just two H for 2 H.

Because of this over all 3 stages I have no idea how to calculate the probability of a perfect outcome. But it is certainly way lower then 1/8.

I actually think that in this case you must make a tree diagramm with all the outcomes and the probability for each of them to then come to the final probability. This is not that easy anymore ;-)
To be honest its is actually quite complicated.....
videoman
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If it’s a math question…paging Frank Findley.
yourimagic
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There are only 8 possibilities : hhh, hht, hth, htt, thh, tht, tth, ttt
So the probability of guessing right the outcome is 1/8.
EZrhythm
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Quote:
On Mar 17, 2022, David Klass wrote:
Quote:
On Mar 17, 2022, Marvello wrote:
This does not strike me as routine, nor is it particularly remarkable. If I had magical powers, I don't think I'd go around demonstrating them by predicting 50/50 coin tosses by writing on suspicious slips of paper and then sliding them around a table for no apparent reason. This is a bar bet, and even as such, it's not very good.


No me neither. I would put my powers to a much better use.
Like making a playing card keep rising to the top of a deck.



Too funny! Smile

Or move coins from under one playing card to another.
How many magicians does it take to change a lightbulb? Regardless, for magicians darkness is a time for d'lite.
Platt
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Thank you. Some people want to make things more complicated then they need to. You can think of it as 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 because at the end of the day it's still three 50/50 chances. Or yes, you can break down all the various combinations as you've done below. 1/8 it is.

Quote:
On Mar 17, 2022, yourimagic wrote:
There are only 8 possibilities : hhh, hht, hth, htt, thh, tht, tth, ttt
So the probability of guessing right the outcome is 1/8.
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Papa Legba
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On Mar 17, 2022, Nathan Alexander wrote:
Eh, I dunno. I'm going through the series "Castle" with my wife. We love it. My in-laws tried and didn't like it.



Was not aware of this series but it's now on my 'to get' list, big fan of Nathan Fillion, sure wish they had made more episodes of 'Firefly' loved it.
Use the FORCE Luke.
Alex DLF
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Gimmicks are coming flat, you need to cut the paper provided and to integrate all the stuff they give you, not complicated but it will require some time and patience.

Interesting concept, you can use the gimmick for various tricks, definately not examinable, be careful with your credit cards if put in the wallet Smile
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leipzisch
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Thanks Alex.
How durable is the gimmick?
And how well does it hold up to being looked at closely (not touched)?
Are changes in thickness discernable, for example?
Pugwash
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And how are the sound levels?
WolfgangStiller
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And how are the angles? (Could you have someone watching from behind?)
Antera
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Interesting concept, you can use the gimmick for various tricks, definately not examinable, be careful with your credit cards if put in the wallet Smile [/quote]

Yah that explains it all.. if you study the video its pretty obvious now what is going on ...
Gaz Lawrence
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It’s an easy concept that at as much as I like Mickael many of us think of these things daily and make them anyway and don’t consider them strong enough as a release.
I mean a folded piece of paper with a m.gn.t? Just use repostionable glue as it’s flatter anyway.
These ideas are so old it’s untrue imho as much as I love Mickael.
Bottle for example is absolutely incredible Gaz.😊
Ustaad
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Quote:
On Mar 18, 2022, Alex DLF wrote:

Interesting concept, you can use the gimmick for various tricks, . . .


Yes, as I understand the gimmick, this is a very nice, clever & versatile gimmick for dual reveal. Sadly it cannot be handled by the spectator.

Smile
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rowdymagi5
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I have a friend who has inside knowledge about this. It is very clever. However, you must have some arts and crafts skills as you have to put this together yourself. Literally involving cutting paper and gluing gimmicks and paper assembly. You get templates and the necessary gimmicks and video of how to put it together. Precision is a must when putting this together.
rowdymagi5
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Quote:
On Mar 16, 2022, magicmind wrote:
Quote:
On Mar 16, 2022, Marc Edgar wrote:
According to Vanishing Inc. this requires some arts and crafts. How difficult is this to make up? My arts and crafts skills leave a lot to be desired!



Pretty sure its the writing on said slips of paper that is the ART/Craft portion.


Nope, you must have arts and crafts experience as you will be assembling this in its entirety.
Marc Edgar
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Quote:
On Mar 19, 2022, rowdymagi5 wrote:
Quote:
On Mar 16, 2022, magicmind wrote:
Quote:
On Mar 16, 2022, Marc Edgar wrote:
According to Vanishing Inc. this requires some arts and crafts. How difficult is this to make up? My arts and crafts skills leave a lot to be desired!



Pretty sure its the writing on said slips of paper that is the ART/Craft portion.


Nope, you must have arts and crafts experience as you will be assembling this in its entirety.


Thanks for the clarification. I figured this might be the case. As much as I like the effect, I'll likely pass on this.
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